公司报告 | 公司点评 东航物流（601156） 证券研究报告 短期盈利或有扰动，中长期仍有望增长 东航物流：我国领先的航空物流服务商 公司主营业务分为航空速运、地面综合服务、综合物流解决方案三大板块。航 空速运业务通过全货机运输和客机腹舱运输两种方式，截至 2024 年，公司拥 有14架B777F全货机并独家经营东航股份公司800余架客机腹舱货运业务； 地面综合服务业务，公司在核心枢纽机场拥有17 个自营货站，上海两场拥有 6 个近机坪货站、1个货运中转站，实现对关键资源的卡位。综合物流解决方 案，跨境电商高景气+拓展产地直达，收入实现高增长。25Q1，公司营业收 入 54.9 亿元，同比增长 5.0%；归母净利润 5.5 亿元，同比下降 7.4%。 关税调整扰动短期盈利，积极应对或孕育新动能（Chaos is a ladder） 小额关税政策调整，空运业务面临压力。2025 年 4 月，美国宣布暂定"最低 限度豁免（de minimis）"政策，并分阶段将每件包裹关税提升至 200 美元； 5 月 12 日，美方下调或撤销对中国小额包裹（包括中国香港特别行政区小额 包裹）加征的关税，国际邮件从价税率由12 ...

Summary of Eastern Airlines Logistics Conference Call Company Overview - Eastern Airlines Logistics is a pioneer in the mixed ownership reform of civil aviation, with a diversified shareholding structure: Eastern Airlines Group holds 40.5%, Legend Holdings 11.3%, and an employee shareholding platform 6.3% [2][5] - The company’s business includes air express, comprehensive logistics, and ground integrated services, with comprehensive logistics now being the primary revenue source, surpassing air express [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of 2.7 billion yuan, up 8% [2][10] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 5.5 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 7% due to aircraft disposal impacts [2][10] - The company has a dividend yield of 5.2%, with a total dividend payout of 1.07 billion yuan in 2024, representing 40% of net profit [10] Business Segments - **Air Express**: Relies on 15 B777 freighters and passenger aircraft bellyhold resources, covering over 160 countries and regions [2][6] - **Comprehensive Logistics**: Revenue reached 12.5 billion yuan in 2024, a 37% increase, accounting for 52% of total revenue. The fastest-growing segments are cross-border e-commerce (71% CAGR) and direct-to-origin services [2][16] - **Ground Integrated Services**: Contributes stable revenue, with a consistent income of over 2.2 billion yuan, accounting for about 11% of total revenue [7] Market Dynamics - The logistics industry is experiencing tight supply and demand, with limited supply of wide-body freighters and double-digit growth in demand [14][15] - Despite potential impacts from U.S. tariff policy changes, growth in European and Asia-Pacific markets is expected to compensate for any declines in U.S. routes [12][15] Future Outlook - The company anticipates steady revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 26 billion yuan, 28.1 billion yuan, and 29.6 billion yuan respectively [20] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.4 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan, and 2.9 billion yuan, with a low PE valuation of 8.5 times for 2025 [20] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio between 30% and 50% [11] Valuation - Eastern Airlines Logistics is currently undervalued with a dynamic PE of 8.5 times for 2025, below the industry average of 12 times [3] - The target price is set at 15.2 yuan, with a buy rating based on the company's growth potential and stable dividend returns [20] Additional Insights - The company has a strong market position in Shanghai, with a market share of over 50% at both Pudong and Hongqiao airports [19] - Future plans include the construction of new cargo stations and smart logistics facilities to increase capacity by approximately 300,000 tons [19]

Group 1 - The 9th Silk Road International Expo and China East-West Cooperation and Investment Trade Fair was held in Xi'an, showcasing the collaboration between Eastern Airlines Logistics and Eastern Airlines Northwest Branch to enhance trade along the "Belt and Road" initiative [1] - Eastern Airlines Logistics has participated in the Silk Road Expo for two consecutive years, highlighting its business capabilities and corporate image through the exhibition of three core business segments: air express, ground integrated services, and comprehensive logistics solutions [2] - The company introduced innovative "air-rail intermodal" solutions in 2024, leveraging the synergy between air freight and the Xi'an China-Europe Railway Express, which operates 498 trains annually, to enhance logistics efficiency [2] Group 2 - Eastern Airlines Logistics is actively contributing to the construction of modern logistics infrastructure in Shaanxi, expanding its diversified business ecosystem, and developing a smart service system to support the region's open economic framework [3] - The company aims to play a significant role in the high-quality development of the "Belt and Road" initiative by collaborating with various stakeholders to create a new blueprint for Silk Road logistics [3]