Trade Data Overview - In May, China's exports amounted to a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, below the expected 6.2% and previous value of 8.1%[3] - Imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected increase of 0.3%[8] Trade Slowdown Signals - The slowdown in trade is indicated by three main factors: 1. Preceding demand from the U.S. led to a front-loading of imports, which has since declined significantly since May[4] 2. The weakening of demand from the U.S. has reduced the support from ASEAN and Latin America for Chinese exports, with a marginal decline of 2.4 percentage points in export growth to these regions[6] 3. The negative year-on-year change in imports reflects the need for domestic demand recovery, which remains insufficient[5] U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - China's exports to the U.S. saw a further decline of 34.5% year-on-year, contrasting sharply with rising container shipping rates, indicating a lag in the impact of tariff adjustments[5] - The tariff "de-escalation" effects on U.S.-China trade have not yet fully manifested in May's data, suggesting potential improvements in June[5] Sector-Specific Insights - The export growth of mechanical and high-tech products has been consistently slowing, with integrated circuits benefiting from tariff exemptions[6] - The overall structure of exports is becoming increasingly differentiated, with significant variations in performance across different product categories[18] Domestic Demand and Import Trends - Domestic demand remains weak, as reflected in the CPI data, which shows a further drag from consumer goods compared to April[21] - The decline in imports is indicative of the ongoing challenges in domestic consumption recovery, with May's import figures falling short of expectations[8]

Export Data Analysis - In May, China's export amount decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, below the expected 6.2% and previous value of 8.1%[4] - Exports to the United States saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 34.5%[5] - The combined export growth to ASEAN and Latin America was only 2.9%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month[5] Import Data Insights - Imports fell by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly lower than the market expectation of a 0.3% increase[7] - The decline in imports reflects ongoing challenges in domestic demand recovery, as indicated by the worsening impact on consumer prices[6] Market Dynamics - The slowdown in U.S. import demand has negatively affected China's export momentum, particularly to ASEAN and Latin America[5] - The global manufacturing new orders index dropped to 49.1%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[5] Structural Changes in Exports - There is a noticeable structural differentiation in export categories, with mechanical and high-tech products experiencing a continuous slowdown in growth rates[6] - Specific categories like integrated circuits have temporarily benefited from tariff exemptions, showing resilience amidst broader declines[6]

Group 1 - The market showed a positive trend last week, with major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index leading the gains [2] - Economic recovery is expected to continue in the second quarter, supported by a gradual improvement in exports following tariff reductions [3] - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% in May, indicating a slight recovery in production and demand [3] Group 2 - Domestic demand is anticipated to become the core driver of economic growth in the second half of the year, especially as real estate sales show signs of weakness [4] - Government bond issuance has accelerated, with net financing reaching 6.4 trillion yuan from January to May, exceeding the same period last year by 3.7 trillion yuan [4] - The U.S. job market remains resilient, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, surpassing expectations [5] Group 3 - The employment data in the U.S. alleviates recession concerns and supports the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates [5] - The overall economic environment is stabilizing, with limited downside risks due to the gradual recovery and support from policies [7] - Short-term market sentiment may be positively influenced by upcoming discussions between U.S. and Chinese leaders [7]

今日燃油系期货均走强,LU表现强于FU。OPEC+增产背景下高硫燃料油面临供应端利空,且FU裂解估值已至高位亦 抑制炼厂原押雷求,基本面边际转弱下FU裂解面临高位回落压力;低硫燃料油估值相对偏低叠加船加油需求迎来季 节性提升,低硫燃料油现货贴水、月差均走强,预计LU单边走强偏强持续。裂解方面,考虑到海外渣油加氢产能与 国内配额充裕,中期来看LU裂解强势持续性有限。 【沥青】 沥青跟随原油上行,涨幅够小于原油。此前烧厂生产沥青利润大幅修复,中石油炼厂增产沥青,山东部分地炼相继 转产沥青,整体来看国内沥青供应增加。假期后市场备货需求热度有所消退,周废沥青出货量为34.3万吨，环比下 降9.5万吨。裁至5月12日,54家样本炼厂库存环比上升4万吨至92.1万吨;104家样本社会降环比下降1.4万吨至 190.3万吨,整体库存水平回升。油价反弹叠加沥青基本面阶段性转弱,BU裂解价差面临高位回落压力。 | 《》 国投期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月13日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F030 ...