Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆★ [1] - Fuel Oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices are expected to have a downward central tendency, with Brent in the range of $57 - $70 per barrel, WTI in the range of $51 - $67 per barrel, and SC in the range of 430 - 510 yuan per barrel. Attention should be paid to reverse operations or option buying opportunities at the boundary of the range [1]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to strengthen unilaterally, but the strong continuity of LU cracking is limited in the medium term [2]. - The asphalt cracking spread faces the pressure of falling from a high level [3]. - The LPG futures price will oscillate at a low level under supply pressure [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The absolute price of crude oil has a corrective rebound driven by the macro - theme of the unexpected downgrade of Sino - US tariffs, but the monthly spread and spot premium/discount are weak [1]. - Global oil inventories increased by 2.2% in Q1 and an additional 1% since Q2, with crude oil inventories increasing by 1.3% and refined oil inventories increasing by 0.4% [1]. - OPEC+ has entered a rapid production - increasing cycle, and there are optimistic signals from the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and Russia - Ukraine peace talks, weakening supply sanctions risks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, fuel - related futures have strengthened, with LU performing stronger than FU [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side negatives under OPEC+ production increase, and high FU cracking valuations suppress refinery crude demand, so FU cracking faces the pressure of falling from a high level [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has relatively low valuations and seasonal growth in ship - refueling demand, with strengthening spot discounts and monthly spreads [2]. Asphalt - Asphalt follows the upward trend of crude oil, but the increase is smaller than that of crude oil [3]. - Refinery production of asphalt has increased, and the market's stocking demand has declined after the holiday. The weekly asphalt shipment volume is 343,000 tons, a decrease of 95,000 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - As of May 12, the inventory of 54 sample refineries increased by 40,000 tons to 921,000 tons, and the inventory of 104 sample social warehouses decreased by 14,000 tons to 1,903,000 tons, with the overall inventory level rising [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Middle - East exports have increased, and the price difference between LPG and naphtha has risen recently, making international market purchases more cautious and overseas prices weaker [4]. - The gross profit of PDH is still at a low level under the high domestic arrival cost, and the operating rate dropped below 60% last week. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production after the cancellation of tariffs [4]. - The domestic price has been lowered due to the impact of concentrated imports and seasonal pressure, and the rebound of crude oil has limited support for the futures market sentiment [4].