Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In April, due to the US tariff policy, business production and operation activities slowed down significantly. Although the three major indices (manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index) slowed down, China's economy generally remained in an expansionary phase [3]. - On the demand side, external demand slowed down rapidly in the short term, while domestic demand rebounded. Policy support increased, but overall demand was still slowing. In production, industrial production decreased due to the slowdown in domestic and foreign demand, but it was expected to continue growing at a relatively high speed with the support of domestic demand policies. In terms of prices, domestic - demand - type commodity prices were weak, and external - demand - type commodity prices fluctuated [3]. Summary by Relevant Content Overall Economic Situation - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49% (expected 49.8%, previous value 50.5%), the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4% (expected 50.6%, previous value 50.8%), and the composite PMI was 50.2% (previous value 51.4%). All three indices decreased compared to the previous month, but the economy remained in an expansionary range [1][3][4]. - In domestic investment, real - estate sales improved, but investment recovery was slow; infrastructure investment accelerated due to the rapid issuance of special bonds; manufacturing investment maintained high - speed growth, but short - term restocking motivation weakened [3]. - Consumption growth accelerated significantly, strongly driving the economy. Exports decreased significantly due to tariff impacts on overseas demand, and future export growth was expected to slow further [3]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell to the contraction range and was lower than market expectations. The new order index was 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in market demand. The production index was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points, showing a slight slowdown in production [3]. - The new export order index and import index were 44.7% and 43.4% respectively, down 4.3% and 4.1% from the previous month, indicating a significant decline in external demand due to tariffs and a decrease in import demand due to external shocks [3]. - The price index continued to decline. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 47% and 44.8% respectively, down 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the US tariff policy and global economic uncertainties [3][4]. - Both the finished - product inventory index and the raw - material inventory index decreased. The finished - product inventory index dropped 0.7 percentage points to 47.3%, and the raw - material inventory index decreased 0.2 percentage points to 47% [4]. Non - manufacturing Sector - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point. The service industry business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, and the construction industry business activity index was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points [4]. - In the service industry, sectors such as air transportation, telecommunications, and IT services were in a high - prosperity range, while sectors like water transportation and capital market services were below the critical point. In the construction industry, the civil engineering construction business activity index was 60.9%, up 6.4 percentage points [4]. - The service industry business activity expectation index was 56.4%, and the construction industry business activity expectation index was 53.8%, indicating that most enterprises in these two industries were confident about market development [4]. Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that overall business production and operation activities remained in an expansionary phase, although at a slower pace [4].

光期研究 见微知著 股指期货策略月报 2 0 2 5 年 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 股指期货：关税战告一段落，财报季即将来袭 | | 4月，触底反弹，Wind全A月度收跌3.15%，中证1000下跌4.61%，中证500下跌3.94%，沪深300下跌2.58%，上证50下跌 | | --- | --- | | | 0.63%。周度来看，小盘指数反弹力度更强，中证1000收涨1.85%，上证50下跌0.33%。美国关税战自4月2日起，目前暂告一段 | | | 落，但美国关税战本质是其金融账户融资能力不足，导致其企图通过缩小经常账户逆差进行再平衡，该问题短期内难以解决， | | | 关税政策未来仍存在反复地可能。 | | | 4月底，A股将完整披露2024年年报和2025年一季报，其中成长性指标值得关注。2025年第一季度GDP同比5.4%，取得开 | | | 门红，再起基础上市场更加关注名义增速数据，财报中营收同比增速等数据可以进行侧面验证， 2024年前三季度，沪深两市 | | | A股剔除金融板块后 ...