Oil Market - Oil prices fell again, with WTI February contract closing down $1.19 at $57.13 per barrel, a decline of 2.04% [2] - Brent March contract closed down $1.06 at $60.70 per barrel, a decline of 1.72% [2] - API data showed a decrease in US crude oil inventories by 2.766 million barrels last week, compared to an increase of 1.747 million barrels the previous week [2] - Discussions are ongoing between the US and Venezuela regarding the export of Venezuelan oil to the US, with potential shipments of 30 to 50 million barrels of high-quality oil [2][14] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.73% to 2479 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil rose by 0.27% to 2925 yuan/ton [15] - Singapore is expected to see stable arrivals of low-sulfur fuel oil in the coming weeks, increasing local inventories [15] - Demand for low-sulfur fuel oil remains weak due to holiday impacts, while high-sulfur fuel oil demand is supported by an increase in ships installing desulfurization towers [15] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 0.35% to 3144 yuan/ton [16] - Recent arrivals of diluted asphalt at ports remain stable, with supply expected to be unaffected by geopolitical events [16] - The market is anticipated to stabilize with potential upward pressure on prices due to raw material supply uncertainties [16] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures saw the main contract RU2605 rise by 260 yuan/ton to 16050 yuan/ton [17] - Natural rubber inventories in Qingdao increased by 3.99% to 451,200 tons, while bonded zone inventories rose by 8.89% to 93,100 tons [17] - The macro environment is improving, but tire demand is weakening, leading to expectations of price fluctuations [17] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5150 yuan/ton, up 2.06%, while EG2605 closed at 3838 yuan/ton, up 2.84% [18] - PX futures closed at 7336 yuan/ton, up 1.75%, with spot prices at $903/ton [18] - The polyester production load is expected to decline further in January-February, leading to market concerns [18] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2268 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $256-$260/ton [19] - Domestic production is expected to increase slightly, while imports are projected to decline from high levels [19] - The market is expected to maintain a strong oscillation due to supply and demand dynamics [19] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China are reported, with various production margins noted [20] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover slightly in early January [20] - Overall, polyolefins are expected to experience price fluctuations around the bottom [20] PVC - PVC prices in East China have increased, with various grades reported at higher price ranges [21] - Supply remains high, but domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook [21] - The overall market is expected to maintain a bottom oscillation with limited upward potential [21] Urea - Urea futures prices continued to rise, with the main contract closing at 1778 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase [22] - The market saw price increases in various regions, with production levels expected to recover slightly [22] - Demand is showing signs of divergence, with some regions maintaining high sales rates while others decline [22] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1190 yuan/ton, up 0.34% [23] - Supply is expected to increase as previously maintained facilities resume operations [23] - Demand remains weak, leading to a potential increase in market looseness [23] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1092 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [24] - The domestic float glass market price remained stable, with production levels expected to decrease due to maintenance [24] - Demand is expected to decline as downstream operations slow down, leading to cautious market sentiment [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, waiting for the bottom to consolidate [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices continue to be weak, with insufficient support at the cost end of asphalt. The market is in a state of oscillating bottom-building, and the rebound momentum is temporarily limited. Although the rigid demand for asphalt remains weak, the reduction in the circulation of asphalt spot resources in some areas today has driven up local prices. There are currently some winter storage contracts being released in the north, and although the downstream receiving sentiment is still cautious, there are some bottoming signals. Additionally, attention should be paid to the recent changes in the situation in Venezuela, as the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker the day before yesterday, and there are signs of a decline in Venezuelan oil shipments according to shipping schedule data. Although there were many arrivals of diluted asphalt in the early stage and the current resources are relatively abundant, with the discount continuously decreasing, attention should be paid to the risk of raw material tightening caused by future geopolitical factors [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 11, the closing price of the main BU2602 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 2,960 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton or 0.92% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 208,301 lots, a net increase of 2,329 lots, and the trading volume was 256,002 lots, a net increase of 114,769 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong, 2,880 - 3,370 yuan/ton; South China, 2,930 - 3,150 yuan/ton; East China, 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton [1] - Yesterday, the spot prices of asphalt in Shandong and North China increased, while those in East China and Sichuan and Chongqing decreased. The spot prices of asphalt in other regions were generally stable [1] Charts - The report includes charts showing the spot prices of heavy-traffic asphalt in various regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of the petroleum asphalt futures index, the main contract, and the near-month contract, the near-month spread, the unilateral trading volume and open interest, the main contract trading volume and open interest, the weekly output of domestic asphalt, the output of independent refineries, the output in Shandong, East China, South China, and North China, the consumption of domestic asphalt in roads, waterproofing, coking, and shipping fuel, and the inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventory (all with corresponding units) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the asphalt futures price is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. The supply side may see a slight increase in the asphalt operating rate, while the demand side will further weaken as road construction in the north gradually winds down due to the dropping temperature and the incremental projects in the south are limited. Currently, the market is cautious about the winter storage contracts, and the price in Shandong has been falling, with the basis remaining at a neutral level [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years compared to the same period last year. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.0 million tons (3.1%) month-on-month and 34.4 million tons (13.8%) year-on-year [1]. - The operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends this week. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 29% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume increased by 7.06% to 280,600 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week-on-week and is still near the lowest level in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating at a low level. The distillation unit in Venezuela's Jose Industrial Zone has been shut down, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened. Next week, Qilu Petrochemical plans to switch to asphalt production, which will slightly increase the asphalt operating rate [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.30% to 2,948 yuan/ton today, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,926 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,958 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 13,629 to 90,743 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong continued to decline to 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to -18 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years compared to the same period last year [4]. - From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate remaining the same as that from January to September 2025 but still negative. The actual cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry from January to October 2025 was -4.3%, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September 2025, still in a negative growth situation. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October 2025 was -0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September 2025 [4]. - As of the week of December 5, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 29% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 percentage point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - As of the week of December 5, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 13.2% compared to the week of November 28, and it is near the lowest level in recent years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt supply is expected to increase slightly, with开工率 rising due to some refineries resuming production and others switching production. However, demand will weaken further as road construction in the north winds down with the dropping temperature and project growth in the south is limited. The market is cautious about winter storage contracts. Overall, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years compared to the same period last year. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. This week, some refineries will switch production, while others plan to resume production, and the开工 rate will rise slightly [1]. - Demand side: Last week, most downstream industries'开工率 declined, with road asphalt开工率 dropping by 5 percentage points to 29% due to funding and weather constraints. As the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and overall demand will be weak [1]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 28, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat week - on - week at 14.5%, near the lowest level in recent years [4]. - Crude oil: The latest sanctions by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. Although there are signs of a potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the possibility of a peace negotiation in the near term is low, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area led to the shutdown of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened under US military threats [1]. - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong has declined recently, and the basis is at a neutral level. Some refineries have started to release winter storage contracts, but the market is cautious [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.41% to 2,952 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,884 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,957 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 23,392 to 112,712 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong has continued to decline to 2,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has dropped to - 2 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing have resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [4]. - Investment data: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate remaining the same as that from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry from January to October was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October was - 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September [4]. - Social financing: From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to experience weak and volatile price trends. The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand will further weaken, and the current market is cautious about winter storage contracts [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. This week, some refineries will switch production, and the operating rate will rise slightly. [1] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. Road asphalt operating rate dropped by 5 percentage points to 29% due to capital and weather constraints. With the drop in northern temperatures, road construction is ending, demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited. [1] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years. [1] - Crude Oil: The latest sanctions by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict in the near term is low, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. A fire in Venezuela led to the shutdown of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 2.41% to 2,916 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,910 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,983 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 14,100 to 136,104 lots. [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 2,960 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 44 yuan/ton, at a neutral level. [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years. From January to October, national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation from January to October was - 4.3%, and that of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%. [4] - Inventory: As of the week of November 28, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years. [4]