那就后果不堪设想。这让我想到了2024年10月8日，当天的成交，就是历史天量，随后开盘就是巅峰， 维持不到2分钟便一泻千里。 在人越多、越吵闹的地方，我们越要保持自己的理性，如果放任自己随大流，那么收益也只能够大众 化。 A股持续大涨，然而，这波上涨，却不是普遍式的，而是局部高位，部分的确甚至下跌，所以有人说在 长江DL里面躲牛市。 翻看了自己的能力圈，今天有部分涨上来了，不过却是冲高回落，我依旧兴致了了，不去参与。 第二：白酒反攻 上周回落的白酒，今天再度反攻，舍得涨停、酒鬼涨幅超6%，逐步成为引领白酒反攻的情绪龙。 至于龙头茅子，还是稳扎稳打，跌不破1400，可能要反攻。猜对，但不做，因为不到信心最足的时刻。 第三：半导体冲高回落 上周五最牛的半导体，今天依旧相当牛，不过却走出了冲高回落的趋势。搞不好是，很多场外的朋友进 场，然后场内自己快速离场的切换手段。 反正这个人位置这么高，也轮不到我来玩了，大家开心就好。 至于粉丝们，怎么玩，大家亲自决定！ 板块上： 第一：稀土永磁大涨 此轮贸易摩擦，成为推动稀土永磁大涨的信号，然后持续反攻。稀土内部几个龙头，均已翻倍，大背景 是稀土价格持续走高。 不过我并没有参 ...

Core Insights - Shenzhen's real estate market showed strong performance in the first half of 2025, with over 65,000 transactions, a year-on-year increase of 53.2% [1] - The new housing market saw a total of 31,074 units sold, representing a 79.9% increase year-on-year, while the second-hand housing market also experienced significant growth [2][5] - Despite a lack of large-scale policy stimulus, the market demonstrated resilience, maintaining a recovery trend compared to the previous year [1][2] New Housing Market - The first half of 2025 saw a total of 31,074 new homes sold, with residential sales reaching 21,867 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 49.3% [2][3] - The supply of new homes decreased significantly, with a total of 17,232 units available, a drop of 44.5% year-on-year [3] - The inventory of new homes also declined, with a sales cycle of 7.5 months, the lowest in nearly four years [3] Second-Hand Housing Market - The average price of second-hand homes fell below 50,000 yuan per square meter, reaching a new low of 49,300 yuan per square meter [4] - The total number of second-hand homes sold in the first half of 2025 was 34,548 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.1% [5] - The supply of second-hand homes increased significantly, with 73,858 units available as of June 30, 2025, indicating a growing pressure on prices [5] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue a "high after low" trend, with second-hand housing experiencing a more significant decline than new housing [6][7] - Factors contributing to this trend include a cyclical adjustment in demand, increased supply of quality new homes, and structural issues in buyer demographics [6][7] - The overall market is anticipated to maintain a slight year-on-year growth despite a decrease in transaction volume [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold price reached a high of approximately 3399, achieving the target of 3400 as predicted, indicating successful trading strategies from previous lows of 3300 [1][2] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with potential testing of upper resistance levels around 3405 to 3410, although significant single-direction increases are not anticipated due to market conditions [2][3] - Domestic gold trading strategies have been successful, with specific contracts achieving significant profits, and a recommendation to avoid short positions even if a downturn appears imminent [3] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - International silver peaked at 37 before experiencing a pullback, with a recommendation to avoid chasing highs and consider light short positions around 36.5 [4] - The market remains in a bullish trend with high volatility, and key support levels are identified at 35.2, which must hold for the bullish outlook to remain valid [4] - Domestic silver trading strategies suggest avoiding new long positions above 9000 and considering light short positions to observe market trends [4] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - International crude oil has shown a clear upward trend, reaching 72, with expectations for further increases towards 74.5, advising against short positions [5] - Domestic fuel oil has also broken above 2800, with a target of 3000, and strategies suggest maintaining long positions while monitoring support levels around 2800 [5]