观点网讯：1月2日，香港地产代理监管局数据显示，2025年12月全港持牌代理人數增至37,744人，较11 月增加156人，增幅0.4%，反映楼市复苏背景下代理行恢复扩充趋势。据统计，该行业全年持牌人数仍 同比减少738人（2%），但近两个月已连续回升。 目前持牌代理人数较2022年2月历史峰值42,408人累计减少4,664人（11%）。值得注意的是，12月营业 详情说明书增至6,591份，实现连续两个月增长，显示行业经营信心有所恢复。 据了解，2024年9月香港持牌代理曾跌至37,591人的八年新低，当时约5.5名代理竞争一宗交易。市场分 析认为，近期数据反弹与政府稳定楼市政策及成交量回升密切相关。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 从业结构方面，12月"S牌"营业员增至20,246人（+86人），"E牌"代理增至17,498人（+70人）。回溯全 年数据，该行业经历剧烈波动——10月终止了长达17个月的连跌趋势，但11月再度减少80人，至12月才 恢复正增长。 ...

银行竞争格局方面，中银香港全年现楼按揭登记量达2.02万宗，同比增34%；汇丰银行以1.27万宗保持 第二，渣打银行凭4386宗登记同比激增2.8倍，排名跃升两位至第四。楼花按揭市场中，中银香港以 1786宗重夺榜首，恒生银行以918宗同比升1.8倍跻身三甲。 月度数据显示，2025年12月楼花按揭登记量回升至299宗。中银香港单月现楼市占率26.4%维持榜首， 渣打银行市占率单月提升2.1个百分点至11.4%，超越恒生银行升至第三。东亚银行以6.7%市占率稳居第 五，花旗银行则以3.1%市占率位列第八。 观点网讯：1月2日，中原按揭董事总经理王美凤表示，2025年香港现楼按揭登记量达6.2万宗，同比增 29.3%，结束三年跌势；楼花按揭登记量6502宗创五年新高，同比升65.8%。中国银行（香港）以32.6% 市占率连续七年蝉联现楼按揭冠军，并首次包揽楼花按揭榜首。 据了解，楼市复苏带动投资者及买家入市意愿提升，2025年内地及海外买家比例明显增加。现时按息稳 定在3.25%中性偏低水平，叠加存款零息环境，推动资金转向具回报潜力的物业市场。数据显示，2025 年12月现楼按揭登记4893宗，环比增3.2%， ...

近日，香港特区政府差饷物业估价署最新数据显示，11月香港二手私人住宅售价指数报297.3点，不仅 较10月上升0.92%，还创下近16个月新高，这也是自2025年6月以来的连续第6个月上涨，累计升幅达 3.77%。与此同时，租金指数则连升12个月，全年累计上升约4.26%，最新报200.7点，再创历史新高。 在经历数年的价格调整后，香港住宅市场在2025年迎来久违的"量价齐升"局面，而且房价与租金同步回 暖。展望2026年，市场机构对香港楼市的前景普遍乐观。 "供平过租" 机构对香港2026年楼市的展望普遍乐观 中原地产亚太区副主席兼住宅部总裁陈永杰表示，今年香港楼市出现了近年罕见的房价和租金齐升现 象。鉴于现在的房价与历史高位仍有差距，明年租金的涨势或将放缓，香港房价的涨幅将跑赢租金。 有业内人士表示，香港楼市交易成本与贷款成本下降带来的协同效应直接刺激了购房需求，同时租金收 益率高于贷款利率激活了香港楼市的金融属性。过去几年，香港楼市在经历"去泡沫"阶段，这也是正常 的价格调整。目前，香港多家大型开发商资产负债表相对比较稳健，个人按揭贷款违约率低。香港与内 地一线城市的房地产市场虽然都经历调整，但无论是下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent land auction in Shenzhen indicates a structural recovery in the real estate market, with a significant premium on land prices reflecting the scarcity of core area land and the dominance of state-owned enterprises in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Land Auction Details - The B405-0308 plot was sold for 792 million yuan, with a premium rate of approximately 65%, resulting in a floor price of 42,695.42 yuan per square meter [1]. - This plot, located in the core area of Futian District, is the first publicly auctioned residential land in 16 years and the last residential land to be auctioned in Shenzhen for 2025 [1][3]. - The auction attracted eight bidders, including major real estate companies, and concluded after 148 rounds of bidding [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The B405-0308 plot is designated for "现房销售" (selling completed homes), which may influence future land sale policies and accelerate industry restructuring, favoring high-quality developments over high turnover [3]. - The total land area sold in Shenzhen for residential purposes in 2025 reached approximately 234,400 square meters, with a total transaction value of about 29.09 billion yuan and an average premium rate of 32.81% [4]. - The real estate market in Shenzhen has shown signs of recovery, with new and second-hand home transactions reaching approximately 111,500 units from January to November, marking a 12% increase compared to the previous year [4]. Group 3: Policy Changes - New housing provident fund policies in Shenzhen aim to support diverse housing consumption needs, allowing for easier access to funds for down payments and facilitating loan processes [5].

12月3日，记者从武汉市住房和城市更新局采访了解到，11月全市商品房网签销面196.91万平方米，环比上个月增长56.99%；全市新建住房网签套数10753 套，环比上个月增长2.93%。业内专家指出，政策利好叠加市场信心修复，武汉楼市正走出"U型"反转曲线，11月成交延续了10月的回暖态势，呈现量价 齐升的积极信号。 "我们没有启动全民营销和渠道销售，但仍创下二七滨江板块年度单次开盘销量的最佳成绩，说明高品质楼盘还是很受广大购房人欢迎的。"销售负责人骆 莎琴介绍，该项目11月来访量近千组，11月22日云逸首次开盘成交近百套，销售额超过5.2亿元。客户构成中，近四成为首次来项目了解详细情况的新客 户；从购房群体结构来看，30—40岁改善型群体占51%，一孩家庭达54%。 资深设计师彭先生的购房经历颇具代表性。"我本人是做装修设计的，对住房品质要求会比其他人更加挑剔。"彭先生介绍，他经营的设计公司位于企业天 地3号，此前一直在关注二七滨江板块的楼盘项目，但犹豫不决并未出手，"我的观望心态比较重。" 来源：长江日报 沙发区有不少购房人前来咨询看房。 "原本正在犹豫是否买二手房，但云逸的定制化设计打动了我。"彭先生 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a mixed performance in the real estate market of Hefei, with new home prices showing slight recovery while second-hand home prices continue to face downward pressure [1][6]. Group 1: Hefei Real Estate Market Performance - In October, Hefei's new home prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month and 0.4% year-on-year, marking the first positive year-on-year growth in recent times [1][6]. - The second-hand home market in Hefei saw a month-on-month decline of 0.7% and a year-on-year drop of 6.5%, indicating ongoing challenges [1][6]. - Overall, the Hefei real estate market is experiencing a structural differentiation trend, with new homes stabilizing while second-hand homes are still adjusting [2][6]. Group 2: Trends in Other Cities - As of November 11, several cities have reported significant increases in second-hand home transaction volumes, with Beijing seeing a 143% month-on-month increase [6]. - Other cities like Shanghai and Xiamen also reported substantial increases of 98% in second-hand home transactions, indicating a broader market recovery [6]. - The overall market activity is gaining attention from various media outlets, highlighting a resurgence in real estate transactions across multiple cities [6]. Group 3: Price Adjustments in Hefei - There has been a noticeable increase in the number of "price-increasing listings" in Hefei's second-hand home market, with some sellers raising their asking prices [12]. - Specific properties in Hefei have seen significant price hikes overnight, with increases ranging from 15 million to 122 million yuan for various units [13].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong mortgage market shows signs of recovery, with an increase in existing property mortgage registrations in October, reaching 6,463, a month-on-month increase of 7.1% [1] - New property mortgage registrations fell to 595, a decrease of 44% month-on-month, attributed to a reduction in the number of large new developments launched [1] - The overall market sentiment is improving, driven by lower interest rates following the U.S. rate cuts, which is expected to encourage more buyers and investors to enter the market [1] Group 1: Existing Property Mortgages - In October, existing property mortgage registrations totaled 6,463, marking a 7.1% increase from the previous month, and maintaining above 6,000 for three consecutive months [1] - The market is showing sustained strength, with expectations for continued positive growth in mortgage registrations for the year [1] Group 2: New Property Mortgages - New property mortgage registrations dropped to 595 in October, a significant decline of 44% from the previous month, primarily due to fewer large new projects being launched [1] - Year-to-date figures indicate a strong performance in new property mortgages, with a 78.2% year-on-year increase in registrations, totaling 5,971 [2] Group 3: Market Share Analysis - In October, Bank of China (Hong Kong) saw its market share for existing property mortgages decrease by 1.6 percentage points to 33.5%, while HSBC's market share fell by 0.1 percentage points to 19.9% [1] - For new property mortgages, HSBC's market share decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24%, while Bank of China (Hong Kong) dropped by 3.9 percentage points to 20.3% [2] - Hang Seng Bank and Standard Chartered Bank saw increases in their market shares for both existing and new property mortgages, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [1][2]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a revival driven by policy relaxations, with major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai implementing measures to boost buyer confidence and market activity [5]. Policy Changes - Over 200 cities have introduced more than 510 real estate policies by the end of October, marking the most intensive market rescue season in history [5]. - Key measures include the removal of purchase restrictions in certain areas, adjustments to mortgage rates, and increased subsidies for families with three children [5]. Market Response - The transaction volume of second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has surged by 30% year-on-year, indicating a significant recovery in market confidence [5]. - Developers are adopting innovative marketing strategies, such as offering parking spaces in live-streaming sessions and various discounts, making the market more accessible [5]. Future Outlook - The future of the real estate market is expected to shift from price competition to a focus on quality, emphasizing living experience and stability of expectations [5]. - The new guiding principles for the market are "stabilizing expectations, activating demand, and optimizing supply," reflecting the shift towards high-quality development [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recovery of the real estate market is influenced by five key signals, primarily driven by the overall economy rather than the real estate sector itself [2] - The first signal is the economy emerging from a deflationary period, indicating that economic recovery is essential for the real estate market to rebound [2] - The second signal focuses on residents' income expectations, highlighting that demand issues stem from a lack of confidence in future employment and income rather than just financial constraints [4] Group 2 - The third signal emphasizes urbanization driven by employment, noting that true urbanization is a transformation of living conditions rather than merely expanding city boundaries [5] - The fourth signal discusses land becoming a scarce commodity, warning against artificial expansion of mega-cities and advocating for restrictions on land auctions to address oversupply in the real estate market [7] - The fifth signal pertains to restoring the financial attributes of real estate, which include mortgage financing, asset pricing, and wealth storage, as the decline in investment consumption has significantly impacted property sales [8] Group 3 - The sixth signal identifies the liquidity of the secondary housing market as a leading indicator of real estate trends, suggesting that revitalizing this market could shift expectations and improve the overall market outlook [10]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Power Generation Industry - The thermal power industry benefits from a significant decrease in coal costs, with Q3 performance continuing the recovery trend. The expected bottom for coal prices provides confidence for electricity price negotiations, and the anticipated increase in capacity prices improves the industry's business model. However, attention is needed on the potential impact of coal supply and demand changes on costs [1][4][7]. - The hydropower sector experienced significant fluctuations in Q3 due to the flood season, but the unexpected autumn floods may lead to an upward adjustment of the annual power generation target. Key players like the Yangtze River Basin, Sichuan Investment, and Huaneng Hydropower show strong competitiveness [1][5]. - Nuclear power has a confirmed long-term growth potential, with a peak in new unit commissioning expected in 2027. The acceleration of new unit approvals and the macroeconomic backdrop of declining interest rates enhance its influence, although market-oriented trading may exert short-term pressure on performance [1][6]. Construction and Building Materials - Silver Dragon Co. benefits from an increased proportion of high-strength product usage and overseas business expansion, with Q3 performance expected to maintain high growth rates. Emerging businesses in aerospace steel wire products show strong competitiveness [1][8]. - Three Trees reported growth in revenue and net profit in Q3, driven by demand for existing and second-hand housing, and accelerated development of high-margin retail formats. The trend of domestic substitution is evident [1][8]. - Rabbit Baby's stock price increase is attributed to sector rotation and its low valuation with high dividend characteristics. Q3 revenue growth is expected to turn positive, with investment income enhancing performance and maintaining a high dividend yield [1][9]. - Huanxin Cement's mid-year performance saw a significant increase, with domestic and international cement business net profit per ton rising. The acquisition of Nigerian cement assets enhances performance, supported by supply-side reform logic [2][10]. Market Trends and Insights Market Sentiment and Style Changes - Recent changes in market sentiment and style have positively impacted the public utility sector, with the utility index rising nearly 3% since October, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by about 3% [3]. Real Estate Market Dynamics - During the National Day holiday, the real estate market showed signs of recovery, with first-tier cities experiencing slight growth and third-tier cities seeing a 20% year-on-year increase. However, second-hand housing transactions showed a significant decline [11]. - High-frequency data indicates a doubling of new housing supply in core cities from August, with a 30%-40% year-on-year increase. This suggests a positive outlook for future sales driven by optimistic expectations [12]. Future Policy Expectations - The fourth quarter is expected to maintain a loose policy tone, with ongoing implementation of real estate storage and urban renewal policies. There is also an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, creating a favorable environment for the real estate sector [15]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on pure development companies, particularly smaller and mid-sized real estate firms that may experience valuation recovery or fundamental-driven trading opportunities due to improving policy expectations and fundamentals [16].