每经记者｜陈荣浩 每经编辑｜何小桃 陈梦妤 新政效应集中释放 乐有家研究中心数据显示，新政前一个月（8月4日—9月5日）至新政满月（9月6日—10月6日），其门店新房看房量环比上涨49%，新房签约量环比上涨 46%，二手房市场虽相对平稳，但也实现环比略有上涨。 深圳市住建局的官方数据更为直观。9月6日—10月6日，全市新建商品住宅网签2824套，同比增长23.48%；二手住宅网签3699套，同比增长32.63%。 具体到项目层面，据深圳房地产信息平台数据，新政后开发商推盘入市的信心较高，9月5日—9月30日已有16个新盘取得预售证。可供对比的数据是，8月 仅6个盘取得预售证。 | 序号 预售证号 | 项目名称 | 开发企业 | 所在区 批准时间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 深房许字 (2025) 光明014号 | 星科源启府 | 深圳晟越房地产开发有限公司 | 光明 2025-09-29 | | 2 深房许字(2025) 盐田004号 | 盐田先进技术产业园 | 深圳市盐田特区建工产业空间发展有限公司 盐田 2025-09-29 | | | 3 深房许字(2025) 龙华0 ...

9月市场热度延续高位波动，得益于核心城市热盘集中入市+项目强销期加强了营销力度，带动了短期项目去化率同比持增。 ◎ 文/俞倩倩 据 CRIC监测数据 ， 重点 30城9 月前 14日 成交面积达 159.3万平方米，与去年同期 下降 6% 。市场呈现出同比降幅放缓的弱复苏特征， 从短期市场热度来 看， 9 月市场热度延续高位 ： 据 CRIC监测数据，9月 上半月重点 30城项目开盘去化率为 38%，较 2 025年8 月全月微降 4 pcts,与 2 024年9 月全月相比增 长 11pcts。 我们选择了部分典型城市，大体分为以下三类： 第一类为前期热度较高的核心一二线城市，以北京、上海、深圳、杭州、成都为典型代表，各城市项目去化率受新盘供给质量影响较大，沪深杭蓉热度好于 去年同期。 第二类武广州、武汉、天津等弱复苏类城市，因热盘集中入市，来访、认购低位回升，整体客户转化率有转增态势； 第三类还有还有部分城市诸如西安、郑州、南京等，认购量稳中有降致使客户转化率高位回落、一降再降，购房观望情绪依旧浓厚，短期来看增长后劲略显 不足。 2025年以来整体楼市延续止跌企稳走势，3 -4月传统"小阳春" 后， 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing Municipal Planning and Natural Resources Committee has released a list of eight residential land plots for supply in 2025, covering approximately 27 hectares and a building scale of about 630,000 square meters, with supply expected soon [1] Group 1: Land Supply Details - The eight plots are distributed across various regions: one in the core area (Dongcheng District), two in the central urban area (Chaoyang District), and five in the sub-center and plain areas (one each in Tongzhou, Shunyi, Changping, Daxing, and Fangshan Districts) [1] - All supplied plots are located near subway lines, including a rare plot within the Second Ring Road [2] Group 2: Notable Land Plots - A significant plot within the Second Ring Road is located in Dongcheng District, with a planned above-ground building area of 25,000 square meters, close to major hospitals and shopping centers [3] - Another noteworthy plot is the Yong'anli Old City Reconstruction Project in Chaoyang District, situated within the Third Ring Road and adjacent to subway lines [4] Group 3: Market Trends - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a mild recovery in the housing market, with July showing a decrease in new residential sales prices across major cities, but the decline is narrowing [5] - In August, the transaction volume in first-tier cities decreased significantly, but the cumulative transactions for the first eight months still show a year-on-year increase of 4% [5] - The introduction of relaxed purchasing policies in Beijing and Shanghai in August may influence market recovery, with expectations for increased supply and improved market conditions as the "Golden September" approaches [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Weak [2] - **Glass**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillating [2] - **Stock Index Futures/Options (Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500)**: Oscillating; CSI 1000: Downward [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds (2 - year, 5 - year)**: Oscillating; 10 - year: Rebounding [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillating strongly [4] - **Pulp**: Consolidating [6] - **Logs**: Weakly oscillating [6] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil)**: Oscillating [6] - **Meal (Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2)**: Oscillating weakly; Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillating strongly [7] - **Rubber**: Oscillating [9] - **PX**: On - hold [9] - **PTA**: Oscillating [9] - **MEG**: On - hold [9] - **PR**: On - hold [9] - **PF**: On - hold [9] 2. Core Views - The steel industry's stable - growth policy from 2025 - 2026 does not restrict steel production, which boosts raw material sentiment. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions and are expected to oscillate at high levels following finished products. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are weakening, and the black sector is expected to oscillate weakly. The fundamentals of rebar are weak, and it is expected to run weakly. The glass market sentiment has cooled, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly [2]. - The stock index market is generally weak, and it is recommended to control risk preference and reduce long positions in stock indexes. The Shanghai property market's "Shanghai Six Measures" have had a positive effect, and the future property market transactions are expected to rise steadily. The bond market aims for stable and healthy development through the cooperation of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and short - term data supports the rise in gold prices. The uncertainty of tariffs and concerns about the Fed's independence stimulate safe - haven funds to flow into gold, and gold is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. - The pulp market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, but the rising space of pulp prices may be limited due to over - capacity. The supply pressure of logs is not large, and the peak season expectation remains to be verified, with prices expected to run weakly. The raw material supply of edible oils is relatively loose, and they are expected to oscillate in the short term. The meal market is affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and high supply, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - The supply of live pigs is affected by weight - loss strategies, and the demand is expected to increase with school openings. The price of live pigs is expected to rise slightly next week. The supply of rubber is affected by weather, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term. The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand, with different trends [7][9]. 3. Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The stable - growth policy of the steel industry boosts raw material sentiment. The fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels following finished products. The "restricted production" in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on iron ore demand. The global iron ore shipment has declined slightly, and there is no obvious inventory - building pressure under high port clearance [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are weakening, with continuous inventory accumulation and weakening downstream orders. The supply is increasing, and the demand is at a new low since the second quarter. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: The fundamentals are weak. The supply will remain at a relatively high level, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance. The inventory is accumulating, and the spot demand is weak. The rebar 2601 contract is expected to run weakly [2]. - **Glass**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The spot price in Hubei has improved slightly, and the key lies in the cold - repair path for the 01 contract. The long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is generally weak, and it is recommended to control risk preference and reduce long positions in stock indexes. Different stock indexes have different trends, and sectors such as precious metals and power grids have capital inflows, while sectors such as diversified finance and aerospace and military industry have capital outflows [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has declined, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Property Market**: The "Shanghai Six Measures" in the Shanghai property market have had a positive effect, and the future property market transactions are expected to rise steadily, which is expected to lead the recovery of the property market in first - and second - tier cities [4]. Precious Metals Industry - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and short - term data supports the rise in gold prices. The uncertainty of tariffs and concerns about the Fed's independence stimulate safe - haven funds to flow into gold, and gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports pulp prices, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. The market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate and rise, but the rising space may be limited [6]. - **Logs**: The supply pressure is not large, and the peak season expectation remains to be verified. The spot price is running weakly, and the delivery willingness is weak, with prices expected to run weakly [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Edible Oils**: The raw material supply is relatively loose, and the demand for industrial and high - end oil products is increasing. The inventory situation of different oils varies, and they are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Meal**: Affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and high supply, it is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply is affected by weight - loss strategies, and the demand is expected to increase with school openings. The price is expected to rise slightly next week [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, but the approaching military parade in early September may have an impact on downstream operations [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The PX price follows oil price fluctuations, and the PTA supply - demand situation has improved. The MEG supply pressure is increasing, and the PR and PF markets are expected to run weakly [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy changes in Shanghai's real estate market, known as "沪六条," are expected to stabilize and improve the market, leading to increased transaction volumes and a potential recovery in major cities across China [1][10]. Policy Impact - The new policies have reduced housing purchase restrictions and enhanced the ability to withdraw housing provident funds, significantly lowering the barriers for homebuyers [2][8]. - Following the policy implementation, there has been a notable increase in project visitations, with some projects reporting a 50% rise in visitor numbers [2]. Market Response - Newly launched projects, such as those by Poly Developments, experienced strong sales, with one project achieving over 400 million yuan in sales on its opening day [3][5]. - The second-hand housing market also saw a resurgence, with over 1,100 units sold in a single day, marking a significant recovery after two months of lower activity [6]. Future Outlook - The upcoming months, traditionally known as "金九银十," are expected to see heightened market activity, driven by the recent policy changes and increased buyer confidence [7][10]. - Analysts predict that the new policies will lead to a sustained increase in transaction volumes, particularly in the outer ring areas of Shanghai, which have been under pressure [9]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is optimistic, with expectations that the policy changes will activate demand and alleviate inventory pressures [9]. - Industry experts believe that the current market conditions will support a gradual recovery, positioning Shanghai as a leader in the revival of real estate markets in other major cities [10].

Market Overview - The Beijing real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with both old and new properties seeing price declines, indicating characteristics of a late-stage bear market [1] - Recent data shows that the average price of new properties in various districts has dropped, with some areas like Huilongguan experiencing accelerated price declines over the past three months [6][7] Property Performance - Certain high-quality new residential areas, such as Zhongxin City and Yuanming Tian Song, have shown resilience, maintaining their prices despite the overall market decline [2][8] - The best-performing new projects in the past five years are located outside the Fifth Ring Road, highlighting the importance of location and quality in property value retention [8] Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a strong correlation between stock market performance and real estate demand, with a potential future recovery in the housing market expected as stock market gains translate into increased consumer spending on properties [10][11][16] - Historical patterns suggest that significant stock market increases often precede a recovery in the real estate market, with a lag of approximately 18 months observed in past cycles [12][13][14] Investment Sentiment - Investor confidence in the real estate market is currently low, with many individuals opting to sell properties to invest in the stock market, exacerbating the decline in property prices [10] - The expectation is that as the stock market continues to rise, it will eventually lead to a resurgence in the real estate market, driven by increased consumer spending and investment [15][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that "confidence" is a key term in the real estate industry during a period of deep adjustment, highlighting the challenges faced by private real estate companies and their strategies to overcome these obstacles [1][4] - Private real estate companies are focusing on "adding value" through increased investment and improved quality, as demonstrated by Sunshine City's project in Nansha District, which aims to reshape corporate credibility and explore future development paths [1][3] - Sunshine City has invested over 20 million yuan in its "9+3 product upgrade plan" for the Lijing Peninsula project, enhancing various features to exceed expectations and reinforce the company's commitment to delivering quality housing [3] Group 2 - The delivery capability of real estate companies, especially private ones, is described as their "lifeline," with Sunshine City planning to deliver over 3,000 units across six projects in five cities in South China in 2024, aiming for both timely delivery and quality exceeding expectations [3] - Other private real estate companies, such as Sunac, Longfor, and CIFI, are also actively ensuring delivery and striving for quality, replacing short-term value with a long-term approach, which contributes to market stability [3] - The recovery of the real estate market requires both policy support and proactive actions from companies, with private firms encouraged to focus on product quality and service to rebuild market trust and inject confidence into the industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in August shows a phase of recovery, with a focus on "quality over quantity" in supply, leading to increased project sales rates in cities like Hangzhou and Wuhan [1][35]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since 2025, the overall real estate market has shown signs of stabilization after a decline, with a traditional "small spring" in March-April, followed by sustained market activity in May-June and a temporary adjustment in July [3]. - In early August, the average sales rate for projects in 30 key cities increased to 37%, a rise of 7 percentage points from June 2025 and 16 percentage points from August 2024 [5]. Group 2: City Performance - Cities are categorized into three types based on their recovery characteristics: 1. Core first and second-tier cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, where sales rates are significantly influenced by the quality of new supply [8]. 2. Cities like Wuhan and Nanjing, which are experiencing a weak recovery with low visitor and purchase rates starting to improve [9]. 3. Cities such as Xi'an and Zhengzhou, where visitor numbers are stable but purchase rates are declining, indicating a lack of momentum for growth [9]. Group 3: Specific City Insights - In August, Beijing's sales rate dropped to 5% due to individual project impacts, while Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu maintained higher activity levels compared to the previous year [11]. - Wuhan has seen a significant increase in visitor and purchase rates, with the average sales rate rising to 45% in early August, up from 26% in July [17]. - Nanjing and Zhengzhou have shown stable visitor and purchase rates, with low conversion rates continuing to fluctuate [21][23]. Group 4: Challenges in Other Cities - Cities like Guangzhou, Xi'an, and Tianjin are facing significant declines in purchase rates, with conversion rates dropping as buyer sentiment remains cautious [27][28][31]. - In Guangzhou, visitor and purchase numbers fell sharply in early August, leading to a decrease in conversion rates [27]. - Xi'an has also experienced a continuous decline in conversion rates, indicating weak market growth potential [28].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is witnessing a significant increase in land acquisition activities, with major players like China Merchants Shekou leading the trend, indicating a potential recovery in the housing market despite declining sales figures [2][5][10]. Group 1: Land Acquisition Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the top 100 real estate companies acquired land worth 578.3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [2][5]. - China Merchants Shekou purchased five land parcels in July 2025 for a total of 5.668 billion yuan, showing substantial growth compared to previous periods [2][5]. - The majority of land acquisitions are dominated by state-owned enterprises, with eight out of the top ten land acquirers being state-owned [2][5]. Group 2: Sales Performance - The sales performance of major real estate companies has declined, with a reported 49.5% drop in signed area and a 53.26% decrease in signed amount for China Merchants Shekou in the first seven months of 2025 [5][10]. - The overall sales revenue for the top 100 real estate companies fell by 13.3% year-on-year in the same period, with July 2025 seeing an 18.2% decline [5][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The contrasting trends of increasing land acquisition and declining sales suggest a complex market situation, where companies are preparing for future demand despite current sales challenges [5][10]. - Factors contributing to the increased land acquisition include lower land prices compared to previous peaks and improved financial conditions for many companies [6][10]. - The emergence of new high-priced land parcels, such as the record-breaking land price in Shenzhen, reflects a shift towards high-quality land offerings in core urban areas [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the current land acquisition trends may indicate a potential market recovery, the overall real estate market is still in a slow stabilization phase [14]. - The government's recent policy adjustments aimed at optimizing the housing market are expected to enhance market expectations and activity, contributing to a gradual recovery [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that developers are expected to actively launch properties priced below HKD 5 million to capitalize on market trends, leading to stable growth in residential property transaction volumes in the coming months [1] - In July 2025, residential property transaction volume in Hong Kong slightly decreased by 3.2% month-on-month to 5,766 transactions, but has remained above 5,000 transactions for five consecutive months, indicating a stable recovery since the market downturn in the second half of 2021 [1] - The number of unsold private residential units that have been completed but not sold decreased by 400 units over the past three months, reaching 27,200 units, suggesting that inventory levels are nearing a peak and are expected to continue declining as the market absorbs 1,000 to 2,000 new units monthly [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong government has reduced the stamp duty for residential properties priced at HKD 4 million and below to HKD 100, which has stimulated residential transaction activity [2] - Properties valued between HKD 3 million and HKD 4 million have benefited the most from this policy, with transaction volumes increasing by 50.5% compared to the same period last year; properties below HKD 3 million and those priced between HKD 4 million and HKD 5 million saw increases of 34.0% and 29.6%, respectively [2]