Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on BHP with a target price of 44 AUD, despite the stock rising 18% since June, outperforming the ASX200 index which increased by 5% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, BHP's EBITDA is projected to be 26 billion USD and net profit at 10.2 billion USD, aligning with Morgan Stanley's and consensus expectations [1] - The final dividend per share is set at 0.60 AUD, exceeding Morgan Stanley's forecast of 0.49 AUD and consensus estimate of 0.51 AUD, with a payout ratio of 60% [1] Group 2: Cost Guidance - The new cost guidance for Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) for fiscal year 2026 is approximately 19 USD per ton, lower than Morgan Stanley's expectations and closer to consensus [1] - Cost guidance for copper and coking coal remains largely in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations [1] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Debt - Mid-term capital expenditure has been reduced from 11 billion USD to 10 billion USD due to project rescheduling and a decrease in low-carbon spending [1] - BHP has adjusted its net debt target range from 5 billion to 15 billion USD to 10 billion to 20 billion USD, leading to a 4% increase in earnings expectations for 2026 due to lower costs [1]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Title] Capstone Copper 2025Q2 铜产量同比增长 40.3%至 5.74 万吨，铜 C1 现金成本为 2.45 美元/磅 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 2 日 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 产量：2025Q2 铜产量为 57,416 吨，同比增加 40.3%，环比增 加 6.7%。主要原因是 Mantoverde 和 Mantos Blancos 的硫化 物产量增加。 销量：2025Q2 铜销量为 53,977 吨，同比增加 35.8%，环比增 加 1.6%。比应付产量低约 1800 吨，这主要是由于 Mantos Blancos 的销售时间安排所致。 成本：2025Q2 铜 C1 现金成本为 2.45 美元/磅，同比减少 12.5%，环比减少 5.4%。主要原因是铜产量增加，生产成本降 低（-0.12 美元/磅），特别是 Mantoverde 和 Mantos Blancos 的生产成本降低，以及 Mantoverde 黄金产量增加和黄金 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported positive operating cash flows of approximately US$90 million for the quarter, leading to a reduction in net debt to below US$100 million [9][10] - The consolidated average sales price decreased to US$127 per tonne from US$139 per tonne in the prior quarter, representing a realization of just under 70% of the average premium low vol index [11][12] - Overall liquidity remained strong at over US$400 million as of June 30, 2025 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - South Walker Creek achieved the highest brown production since mid-2022, with over one million tons produced in June alone [4] - Portrail posted a 7% increase in raw production and a 14% increase in coal sales quarter on quarter [5] - Isaac Plains recovered strongly with raw volumes of 932,000 tons, a 60% increase from the prior quarter, although saleable production remains below the run rate to achieve full year guidance [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal pricing conditions remained suppressed due to record levels of Chinese steel exports, which reached 116 million tons in 2025 compared to 111 million tons in 2024 [3] - FOB Australia prices remained range bound, with limited offers in the spot market, influenced by a glut of steel exports from China [13][14] - The Chinese domestic market was well supplied, impacting the pricing dynamics for Australian coal [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has softened the pace on the Eagle Downs project due to current market conditions but continues base level studies to optimize capital and operational parameters [8] - The focus remains on cash preservation and maintaining production guidance despite adverse weather conditions [2][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery story continuing into the second half of the year, with expectations of significantly higher volumes [10] - The company anticipates that ongoing supply constraints in Australia, combined with potential demand recovery in India post-monsoon, may support market conditions [15] Other Important Information - The company formally objected to the assessed stamp duty related to the Eagle Downs transaction, which was higher than expected [9][10] - The company is working on a budget for 2026, considering potential deferrals based on coal prices [46][48] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the strip ratio going forward? - Management indicated a drop in the strip ratio due to a focus on catching up on raw volumes, with expectations of a slight reduction for the remainder of the year [17][18] Question: What is expected from the Eagle Downs project study next year? - The outcome will depend on various factors, including capital requirements and market conditions, with no commitment expected until mid-next year [20][21][22] Question: Can you clarify the net debt position and tax refund? - The net debt of US$99 million included a benefit from a tax refund submitted in late May, which was received in June [40][42] Question: What initiatives are being taken to manage costs and CapEx? - The company is on track with its guidance and is exploring further cost management initiatives while preparing for the budget for 2026 [46][48] Question: How is the company responding to changes in currency exchange rates? - The company believes it can achieve guidance even with current exchange rates, while also expecting benefits from cost reductions in the second half [52][54]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, Group revenue increased by 6.7% to $8.5 billion, and adjusted EBITDA also increased by 6.7% to $392 million, exceeding adjusted EBITDA guidance by $12 million [11][7][10] - Adjusted net income for the full year was $120.9 million, with adjusted diluted EPS increasing by 2.4% to $1.27 per share [11][27] - Net debt at the end of 2024 was $637 million, with net leverage at 1.6 times, indicating a strong financial position [12][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fresh Fruit segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $214.8 million for the full year, an increase of $5.9 million compared to 2023, driven by volume growth in bananas and plantains [12][13] - Diversified EMEA segment achieved adjusted EBITDA of $131.5 million for the full year, with a like-for-like revenue growth of 4.4% [16][17] - Diversified Fresh Produce Americas segment reported a like-for-like revenue increase of 16.1%, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 52.3% for the full year [32][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America saw good volume growth in bananas and plantains, while the European market experienced high volumes in bananas and lower shipping costs [13][14] - The EMEA segment faced headwinds due to supply challenges and weather events, but anticipates continued revenue growth in 2025 [17][16] - The Fresh Vegetables business showed positive cash flow for the full year, indicating a turnaround despite accounting adjustments [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital allocation and managing invested capital, with strategic investments in expanding shipping capacity and improving operational performance [8][10] - There is an ongoing process to determine the best strategic alternative for the vegetables business, which remains a priority [20][21] - The company plans to maintain a baseline level of capital expenditure in line with depreciation expenses, while exploring development opportunities for future growth [41][70] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges in 2025, including the impact of Tropical Storm Sara and geopolitical uncertainties affecting sourcing costs and supply chains [40][41] - The company aims for adjusted EBITDA in the range of $370 million to $380 million for 2025, reflecting a more normalized year compared to 2024 [41][38] - Management remains optimistic about the underlying fundamentals of the business and is focused on navigating challenges while capitalizing on growth opportunities [15][38] Other Important Information - The company declared a dividend of $0.08 for the fourth quarter, to be paid on April 3, 2025 [37] - Free cash flow from continuing operations was $180.3 million for the full year, benefiting from strong adjusted EBITDA performance [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you unpack the EBITDA guidance for 2025? - Management indicated that the guidance reflects known headwinds, including the impact from Tropical Storm Sara and macroeconomic uncertainties, with expectations for a slower start to the year [45][49][54] Question: What mitigation strategies are in place regarding potential tariffs? - Management believes that the demand for fresh produce will remain strong, and they are prepared to adjust pricing and sourcing strategies if tariffs are implemented [56][58][60] Question: What is the focus on capital allocation moving forward? - The company is prioritizing leveraging while also considering targeted M&A opportunities, with ongoing internal development projects aimed at enhancing growth [65][70][72] Question: What are the expectations for the Diversified EMEA segment? - Management noted that while there are some profit weaknesses in certain regions, they see more opportunities than challenges and expect continued growth [75][76] Question: Is there a risk of elasticity in pricing for high-value products like avocados? - Management expressed confidence that the U.S. market will continue to demand these products, despite potential tariff impacts, due to limited domestic production capabilities [78][80]