证券研究报告 | 2025年10月26日 重庆银行（601963.SH）2025 年三季报点评 优于大市 扩表提速，业绩实现高增 业绩增速提升，营收和归母净利润增速均略超 10%。2025 年前三季度实现营 收 117.4 亿元，同比增长 10.40%，实现归母净利润 48.8 亿元，同比增长 10.42%。其中营收和归母净利润单季度同比分别增长了 17.38%和 20.54%， 业绩增速明显提升。 2025 年公司规模扩张提速，净息差企稳改善。2025 年前三季度净利息收入 同比增长 15.2%%，较上半年增速提升了 3.0 个百分点，同时受益于规模扩表 提速和净息差企稳改善。2025 年 9 月末，资产总额 1.02 万亿元，贷款总额 （不含应计利息）5.18 万亿元，存款总额 5.54 万亿元，较年初分别增长了 19.4%、18.3%和 16.9%。其中，对公贷款和零售贷款较年初分别增长了 23.0% 和 1.7%，近几年公司新增信贷主要投向了征信类相关领域。 负债端成本降幅明显，净息差企稳改善。按照期初期末平均余额测算的前三 季度年化净息差为 1.32%，较上半年提升 3bps，同比下降 4bps，同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is focusing on its core business, aiming to restore internal capital capabilities while managing loan pricing and volume, leading to a gradual shift away from scale demands [1] Group 1: Banking Sector Dynamics - Banks are expected to optimize credit structures and expand stable funding sources, with key support areas including "Five Major Articles," "Two New and Two Heavy," and the newly added "Stabilizing Foreign Trade" direction [1] - The necessity for interest rate cuts is currently low, with net interest margins expected to stabilize around 1.4% in the second half of the year [1] - Financial risks in key areas are being systematically resolved, indicating a controlled risk environment [1] Group 2: Capital and Liquidity - Large banks are anticipated to act as stabilizers in the bond market, while smaller banks may struggle with capital pressures, leading to weaker investment capabilities [1] - Regulatory bodies may promote capital replenishment plans for joint-stock banks and smaller regional banks, supporting the interest rate environment for bank capital bond issuance [1] - The trend of deposit migration is intensifying competition for core liabilities, with a potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts in Q4 [1] Group 3: Financial ETF Overview - The Financial ETF (510230) tracks the 180 Financial Index (000018), which selects listed companies involved in banking, insurance, and securities to reflect the overall performance of major enterprises in the Chinese financial market [1] - The 180 Financial Index covers multiple sub-industries within the financial sector, showcasing high market representativeness and industry characteristics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to continue declining in the second half of the year, but the rate of decline will further narrow, with confidence in the stabilization trend of NIM in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the net interest margin for the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) was 1.3%, indicating a continued downward trend, but with a narrowing margin of decline [2]. - The bank's strategies in response to the low interest margin environment have led to a sustainable stabilization of NIM, supported by effective asset-liability management measures [2]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - ICBC is focusing on duration management of asset-liability combinations to enhance resilience against external shocks [2]. - The bank emphasizes cost management of liabilities, which is a key factor in stabilizing the interest margin [2]. - There is a strong focus on optimizing the structure of assets and liabilities, contributing to the recovery of the interest margin [2]. Group 3: Loan Growth and Pricing - In terms of asset growth, ICBC is prioritizing structural growth over total volume, leveraging its competitive advantages in corporate finance, inclusive finance, and financial technology [2]. - The growth rates for technology loans, inclusive loans, and loans to core industries of the digital economy were 20%, 17.3%, and 19.3% respectively, all exceeding industry averages [2]. - The bank's new RMB loan interest rate has decreased to 2.82%, down 22 basis points from 2024 [2]. Group 4: Risk Management - ICBC is focusing on marginal price improvement while adhering to risk pricing principles and regulatory requirements to prevent irrational declines in loan rates [3]. - The bank is committed to precise risk prevention and has strengthened its three-line defense mechanism, leading to a steady improvement in the quality of credit assets [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][8]. Core Views - The company has shown a stable net interest margin and increased credit investment outside its primary region. The total assets reached 755 billion yuan, with loans totaling 350.8 billion yuan, reflecting growth of 8.8% and 9.5% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [2][3]. - The net interest income has turned positive with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, benefiting from an increase in total assets and a narrowing decline in net interest margin [1][3]. - The company maintains a strong asset quality with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83%, stable compared to the beginning of the year, and a provision coverage ratio of 438% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.504 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.134 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company forecasts net profits of 5.4 billion yuan, 5.96 billion yuan, and 6.59 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 6.9%, 10.0%, and 10.7% [3][6]. - The projected price-to-book ratios for the next three years are 0.78x, 0.72x, and 0.66x, indicating a favorable valuation [3][6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The banking sector is experiencing a rebound in profitability, with a slight year-on-year decline in net profit of 1.20% for the first half of 2025, showing improvement compared to the first quarter [11] - The total assets of commercial banks reached approximately 403 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.88% [16] - The net interest margin has stabilized, recorded at 1.42% for the first half of 2025, indicating a potential turning point [19] - Asset quality is improving, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.49%, down 2 basis points from the first quarter [22] - Core Tier 1 capital ratios have improved, enhancing future risk prevention capabilities [25] Summary by Sections 1. Profitability Trends - In the first half of 2025, commercial banks' net profit totaled 1.24 trillion yuan, a decrease of 196 billion yuan year-on-year, but with a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 1.11 percentage points [11] - Non-interest income accounted for 25.75% of total revenue, increasing by 80 basis points [11] 2. Asset and Credit Expansion - Commercial banks' total assets grew by 8.88% year-on-year, with significant contributions from state-owned banks and city commercial banks [16] - The credit balance for the second quarter of 2025 is estimated at 230 trillion yuan, with a quarterly increase of 3.19 trillion yuan [17] 3. Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for commercial banks is 1.42%, with a slight decline of 1 basis point from the previous quarter [19] - The average loan interest rate has decreased, contributing to the stabilization of the net interest margin [21] 4. Asset Quality Improvement - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.49%, with a significant reduction in the ratios for state-owned and city commercial banks [22] - The provision coverage ratio stands at 212%, indicating a strong buffer against potential losses [22] 5. Capital Adequacy - The risk-weighted assets of commercial banks reached 218 trillion yuan, with capital adequacy ratios showing positive trends [25] - The core Tier 1 capital ratio improved to 10.93%, reflecting a robust capital position [25]

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is showing signs of stabilization and recovery in the first half of 2025, with improvements in revenue and profit growth expected as net interest margins stabilize and non-interest income pressures ease [1][2][3]. Group 1: Performance Overview - Hangzhou Bank reported a 3.89% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 16.67% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [2]. - Changshu Bank achieved a revenue of 6.062 billion yuan, a 10.10% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 1.969 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.55% increase [2]. - Analysts predict that the overall performance of A-share listed banks will show stabilization and recovery, with a projected revenue decline of only 1.6% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, a significant improvement compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 2: Revenue and Profit Trends - Analysts expect that the revenue and profit growth rates for listed banks will improve in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, with a forecast of a 0.6% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 [2][3]. - The net profit for listed banks is anticipated to show a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year for the first half, with a positive growth of 0.8% expected in Q2 [2][3]. Group 3: Net Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin is expected to stabilize, with a projected decrease of 3-4 basis points in Q2 due to the impact of LPR adjustments [5]. - Non-interest income is anticipated to recover, with fee income expected to improve as the previous year's low base effects diminish [5][6]. Group 4: Asset Quality - Both Hangzhou Bank and Changshu Bank reported a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76%, indicating strong asset quality [6]. - The overall asset quality of banks is expected to show a trend of improvement, with public sector loans performing better than retail loans [6][7]. Group 5: Credit Growth Dynamics - The credit growth remains skewed towards corporate loans, which accounted for over 75% of new loans in Q2, while retail loans contributed only about 4% [7]. - The overall credit issuance by listed banks is expected to outperform the national average, maintaining a stable year-on-year growth [7].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Nanjing Bank [3][10]. Core Views - Nanjing Bank is entering a new five-year planning cycle, with three major turning points driving value reassessment: 1) Market share enhancement cycle, 2) Interest rate decline cycle, and 3) Cost-to-income ratio improvement cycle [3][10]. - The bank's current PB valuation is 0.81x for 2025, with a dividend yield of 4.5%, making it a strong investment recommendation [3][10]. Market Share Enhancement Cycle - The management team, led by Chairman Xie Ning, is driving operational efficiency through comprehensive reforms and management optimization, following a significant expansion of branch networks [7][21]. - By the end of 2024, Nanjing Bank will have 290 branches, with a focus on increasing market share through a "three-year customer doubling action plan" [7][22]. - The favorable economic environment in Jiangsu province, with a credit growth rate close to 10% as of May, supports sustainable revenue growth for Nanjing Bank [7][25]. Interest Rate Decline Cycle - Nanjing Bank benefits from a favorable asset-liability structure in a low-interest-rate environment, with a high proportion of time deposits (78%) compared to peers [8][10]. - The bank has already passed the peak pressure on net interest margin (NIM) in 2023, and NIM is expected to stabilize as deposit costs decline [8][10]. Cost-to-Income Ratio Improvement Cycle - The cost-to-income ratio has risen to 30.5% from 2019 to 2023, but is projected to decrease to 28.1% in 2024 due to operational efficiencies and a three-year financial management plan [9][10]. - The bank's asset quality is stabilizing, with a focus on government-related loans, while retail loan risks are expected to improve in the coming years [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Nanjing Bank is expected to maintain a leading position in ROE and performance growth among listed banks, with a dividend payout ratio above 30% [10]. - The completion of a 20 billion yuan convertible bond conversion enhances capital, supporting the bank's growth trajectory [10].