证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 08 月 24 日 二手房网签面积同比降幅收窄 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 8 月 21 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 8 月 21 日） | 新房（8 | 月 | 1 日-8 | 月 | 21 日） | 二手房（8 | 月 | 月 1 日-8 | 21 日） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 | 7 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | | 7 月 | | 样本城市 | -22% | | -扩大 | -3 PCT | 样本城市 | -1% | -收窄 | | +6 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | | （16 城） | | | | | | 一线城市 | -36% | | -扩大 | -14 PCT | 一线城市 | +3% | 转正 | | +12 PCT | | （4 城） ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the year-on-year decline in new housing and second-hand housing transaction areas has narrowed, with new housing transactions down by 17% and second-hand housing down by 2% as of August 14, 2025 [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the difference between net rental yield and mortgage rates as a key observation for total demand in the new and second-hand housing markets [5]. - It suggests that the new housing market may see improvements earlier than the second-hand market due to expectations of reduced supply and enhanced quality [5]. - The report also notes that the current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.0, reflecting concerns about the impact of current housing sales on business models, indicating that the sector has entered an investment range [5]. Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transactions has narrowed, with a decrease of 17% compared to the previous year, while the month-on-month figures are at a low level compared to the past five years [9][11]. - The report indicates that the average daily transaction area for new and second-hand housing is below the levels of the same period in previous years [19]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transactions has also narrowed, with a decrease of 2% as of August 14, 2025 [4][14]. - The report notes that the transaction area for second-hand housing is at a mid-level compared to the past five years [17]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to July 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of 6%, while the average transaction price has increased by 32% [21]. - The report highlights that the land premium rate has increased by 2.0 percentage points compared to the previous month [27]. Inventory and Unsold Properties - The report indicates that the unsold inventory and the de-stocking cycle for newly started projects have decreased compared to June, suggesting a slight improvement in inventory management [30][33]. - The de-stocking cycle for unsold properties has shown mixed trends across different city tiers, with first-tier cities experiencing a decrease in unsold inventory [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The land premium rate in 300 cities increased in July compared to June, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [1] - The report highlights that the total demand for new and second-hand homes is stabilizing, driven by the narrowing gap between net rental yields and mortgage rates [5] - It emphasizes the importance of supply reduction expectations and the optimization of supply quality in improving the new housing market environment compared to the second-hand market [5] Summary by Sections New Housing Market - The year-on-year decline in new housing contract signing area has expanded, with a 19% decrease in sample cities compared to June [3] - The average contract signing area in first-tier cities saw a 22% year-on-year decline, while second-tier cities experienced a 13% decline [3][9] Second-Hand Housing Market - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing contract signing area also expanded, with a 7% decrease in sample cities [3] - First-tier cities reported a 9% year-on-year decline in second-hand housing, marking a shift to negative growth [3][13] Land Transactions - From January to July 2025, the cumulative land transaction area in 300 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 6%, while the average transaction price increased by 32% [21] - The land premium rate increased by 2.0 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a potential recovery in land sales [27] Market Liquidity and Pricing Trends - The liquidity outlook indicates a tightening trend as of August 2025, with a reduction in the proportion of listings with price increases [5][44] - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities decreased by 8.7% compared to June [41] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the real estate sector is entering an investment zone, with the price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1.0, reflecting concerns about the impact of current sales on business models [5] - It identifies three main lines of risk premium recovery for national and regional real estate companies, focusing on balance sheet performance, credit premiums, and turnaround situations [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate sector, indicating that the sector has entered an investment range with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of approximately 1.0 times, reflecting concerns about the impact of current sales on business models [2][38]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a low-level oscillation in sales, with a year-on-year decline in new housing sales area of -3.3% in May, indicating continued pressure on sales due to weak inventory and new supply trends [14][15]. - The report highlights that the funding chain index for real estate has declined, remaining at historically low levels, but anticipates potential improvements in the financial situation of some companies as supply and demand policies gradually take effect [2][10]. - The report suggests that the decline in mortgage rates may help stabilize total demand for new and second-hand homes, with a focus on the new housing market showing earlier signs of marginal improvement compared to the second-hand market [38]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - In May, the adjusted year-on-year growth rate for sales area was -3.3%, with a total sales area of 35.3 million square meters, reflecting a continued low market heat [14][15]. - The cumulative sales amount from January to May was 3.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of -3.8% [10][15]. Construction Data - The new construction area in May saw a year-on-year decline of -19.3%, indicating a tightening balance in new construction under the current market conditions [39][40]. - The report maintains that the completion rate will likely remain low until the second half of 2026, with a May completion area decline of -19.5% year-on-year [39][40]. Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in May showed a year-on-year decline of -12.0%, reflecting a synchronized drop in construction area and ongoing inventory reduction efforts by developers [2][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with stable cash flow generation capabilities and those that can navigate the current market challenges effectively [38].