证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 08 月 24 日 二手房网签面积同比降幅收窄 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 8 月 21 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 8 月 21 日） | 新房（8 | 月 | 1 日-8 | 月 | 21 日） | 二手房（8 | 月 | 月 1 日-8 | 21 日） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 | 7 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | | 7 月 | | 样本城市 | -22% | | -扩大 | -3 PCT | 样本城市 | -1% | -收窄 | | +6 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | | （16 城） | | | | | | 一线城市 | -36% | | -扩大 | -14 PCT | 一线城市 | +3% | 转正 | | +12 PCT | | （4 城） ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the year-on-year decline in new housing and second-hand housing transaction areas has narrowed, with new housing transactions down by 17% and second-hand housing down by 2% as of August 14, 2025 [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the difference between net rental yield and mortgage rates as a key observation for total demand in the new and second-hand housing markets [5]. - It suggests that the new housing market may see improvements earlier than the second-hand market due to expectations of reduced supply and enhanced quality [5]. - The report also notes that the current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.0, reflecting concerns about the impact of current housing sales on business models, indicating that the sector has entered an investment range [5]. Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transactions has narrowed, with a decrease of 17% compared to the previous year, while the month-on-month figures are at a low level compared to the past five years [9][11]. - The report indicates that the average daily transaction area for new and second-hand housing is below the levels of the same period in previous years [19]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transactions has also narrowed, with a decrease of 2% as of August 14, 2025 [4][14]. - The report notes that the transaction area for second-hand housing is at a mid-level compared to the past five years [17]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to July 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of 6%, while the average transaction price has increased by 32% [21]. - The report highlights that the land premium rate has increased by 2.0 percentage points compared to the previous month [27]. Inventory and Unsold Properties - The report indicates that the unsold inventory and the de-stocking cycle for newly started projects have decreased compared to June, suggesting a slight improvement in inventory management [30][33]. - The de-stocking cycle for unsold properties has shown mixed trends across different city tiers, with first-tier cities experiencing a decrease in unsold inventory [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The land premium rate in 300 cities increased in July compared to June, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [1] - The report highlights that the total demand for new and second-hand homes is stabilizing, driven by the narrowing gap between net rental yields and mortgage rates [5] - It emphasizes the importance of supply reduction expectations and the optimization of supply quality in improving the new housing market environment compared to the second-hand market [5] Summary by Sections New Housing Market - The year-on-year decline in new housing contract signing area has expanded, with a 19% decrease in sample cities compared to June [3] - The average contract signing area in first-tier cities saw a 22% year-on-year decline, while second-tier cities experienced a 13% decline [3][9] Second-Hand Housing Market - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing contract signing area also expanded, with a 7% decrease in sample cities [3] - First-tier cities reported a 9% year-on-year decline in second-hand housing, marking a shift to negative growth [3][13] Land Transactions - From January to July 2025, the cumulative land transaction area in 300 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 6%, while the average transaction price increased by 32% [21] - The land premium rate increased by 2.0 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a potential recovery in land sales [27] Market Liquidity and Pricing Trends - The liquidity outlook indicates a tightening trend as of August 2025, with a reduction in the proportion of listings with price increases [5][44] - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities decreased by 8.7% compared to June [41] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the real estate sector is entering an investment zone, with the price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1.0, reflecting concerns about the impact of current sales on business models [5] - It identifies three main lines of risk premium recovery for national and regional real estate companies, focusing on balance sheet performance, credit premiums, and turnaround situations [5]

Core Insights - The report indicates a decrease in the unsold inventory turnover cycle for new construction in June compared to May, suggesting a potential improvement in market conditions [1] - The overall net signed area for new and second-hand homes has shown a year-on-year decline, with the rate of decline for new homes at -22% and for second-hand homes at -9% as of July 17 [4][10] - The report highlights a significant drop in the average number of viewings for second-hand homes, which decreased by 8.3% month-on-month, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][46] New Home Market - The year-on-year decline in new home signed area has expanded, with the current figures being higher than the levels seen in the past four years [10][12] - The report notes that the average signed area for new homes in sample cities has decreased compared to the same period last year, reflecting ongoing market challenges [12][20] Second-Hand Home Market - Similar to new homes, the second-hand home market has also experienced an expanded year-on-year decline in signed area, with the current figures indicating a more significant contraction [14][16] - The report emphasizes that the average signed area for second-hand homes is also below the levels recorded in previous years, suggesting persistent market weakness [16][20] Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to June has shown a year-on-year decline of 5%, but the average transaction price has increased by 33% compared to the previous year [22][28] - The report indicates that the land acquisition data includes residential, comprehensive, and commercial/office land, providing a comprehensive view of market activity [25][32] Inventory and Turnover - The report notes that the inventory of unsold new construction and the turnover cycle have marginally decreased compared to May, while the inventory of unsold projects has increased [33][35] - The turnover cycle for unsold new construction has decreased, indicating a potential improvement in market absorption rates [35][36] Forward-Looking Indicators - The report suggests that liquidity conditions are expected to improve, with macro-level liquidity showing signs of expansion as of July 2025 [5][49] - The proportion of listings with price increases has decreased by 8.8% month-on-month, indicating a potential cooling in price expectations across the market [51][53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant year-on-year decline in both new and second-hand housing transaction areas, with the decline rate expanding [2][10] - The report indicates that the overall demand for new and second-hand homes may stabilize due to potential decreases in mortgage rates, which could narrow the gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of urban renewal and the optimization of existing policies to stabilize the real estate market [6] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transaction areas has expanded, with a reported decrease of 24% for sample cities [4] - The decline in new housing transactions is more pronounced in first-tier cities, with a 21% decrease [4][10] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction areas has also expanded, with a reported decrease of 10% for sample cities [4] - First-tier cities have seen a shift to negative growth in second-hand housing transactions, with a 10% decline [4] Market Trends and Indicators - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities has decreased by 8.3% month-on-month [5][45] - The liquidity outlook indicates an expansion in macro-level liquidity as of July 2025 [5][49] Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to June 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of 5%, while the average transaction price has increased by 33% [24] - The report notes a decrease in the proportion of listings with price increases, indicating a potential cooling in market expectations [50] Inventory and Unsold Properties - The report indicates a marginal increase in the unsold inventory cycle for newly acquired and unsold properties compared to April [34] - The unsold inventory cycle for newly constructed properties in first-tier cities has decreased, while it has increased in second and third-tier cities [36]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected outperformance of the industry index against the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the average land acquisition price in sample cities has increased year-on-year, with a notable expansion in the growth rate compared to previous months [1]. - The new housing and second-hand housing transaction areas have shown a year-on-year decline, with the decline in new housing transactions expanding significantly [9][15]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a recovery in demand for new and second-hand homes due to anticipated decreases in mortgage rates, which could narrow the gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates [5]. Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - As of July 3, the year-on-year decline in new housing transactions in sample cities is -34%, which is a worsening of 21 percentage points compared to June [3]. - The new housing transaction area in first-tier cities has seen a year-on-year decline of -41%, while second-tier cities have a decline of -19% [3]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transactions is -9%, with a worsening of 5 percentage points compared to June [3]. - First-tier cities have experienced a shift to negative growth in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a more challenging market environment [3]. Land Acquisition Trends - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative land transaction area in 300 cities has seen a year-on-year decline of -5%, while the average transaction price has increased by 33% [23]. - The report notes that the land premium rate has decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a potential cooling in land market speculation [29]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the real estate market stability remains a key policy goal, with a focus on urban renewal and the optimization of existing policies [5]. - The anticipated recovery in the housing market is expected to be driven by a combination of supply reduction, improved quality of supply, and significant differentiation in buyer profiles [5].

Summary of Poly Developments Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Poly Developments - **Industry**: Real Estate Development Key Points and Arguments 1. **Expansion and Investment**: Poly Developments has achieved a total expansion amount of 42 billion yuan this year, maintaining a high equity ratio of 85%. The proportion of incremental projects has increased to 65%, indicating strong investment activity in new projects [2][3] 2. **Market Performance**: In the first five months of 2025, the company reported a cumulative sales amount of 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. Despite this, the company performed relatively well within the industry, with major cities like Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing contributing significantly to sales [3] 3. **Market Conditions**: The overall real estate market is experiencing downward pressure, with the company noting that the market has been underperforming expectations each month this year. The third quarter's market conditions are difficult to predict due to potential impacts from seasonal factors and policy changes [4] 4. **High-Performing Cities**: Core cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou are experiencing high market activity. For instance, the Poly Tianyu project achieved a sales rate of 96% upon its launch, indicating strong demand in these areas [5] 5. **Policy Impact in Guangzhou**: The tightening of housing area ratios in Guangzhou aims to stabilize land and housing prices but may negatively affect the new housing market. In contrast, Hangzhou maintains stable ratios to ensure predictable land prices [6] 6. **Government Response**: Local governments are cautious regarding the recent decline in the real estate market and have not yet defined specific stimulus measures. The company emphasizes that long-term recovery relies on macroeconomic stability and confidence restoration rather than short-term policies [7] 7. **On-Site Sales Policy**: The company has successfully implemented on-site sales in Sanya, achieving significant sales figures. They have shortened the preparation time for projects to 14-16 months, demonstrating that the financial turnover time for on-site sales is manageable [8] 8. **Land Reserve Status**: The company has a total land reserve of approximately 62 million square meters, with 10 million square meters being incremental projects and 52 million square meters as existing projects. They are also working on 15 million square meters of land exchange regulations [9][10] 9. **Inventory and Land Exchange**: The company is negotiating land exchanges and returns at original prices due to development obstacles. They are also actively participating in bidding for new land in cities like Changchun and Zhaoqing, where they have confidence in project viability [11] 10. **Profit Margins**: New projects are expected to achieve a gross margin exceeding 20%, while older inventory projects may only break even due to significant discounting [12] Additional Important Information - The company is focusing on optimizing its asset structure by increasing the sales proportion of finished products and diversifying the revitalization of existing projects [2] - The company is advocating for policy support to help stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing the need for a recovery based on economic fundamentals rather than temporary measures [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The new housing contract area has seen an expanded year-on-year decline, while the second-hand housing contract area has experienced a narrowed year-on-year decline [1][8] - The report indicates that the overall demand for new and second-hand housing may stabilize due to potential decreases in mortgage rates, which could help narrow the gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates [5] - The report highlights that the current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.0 times, reflecting concerns about the impact of current sales on business models, suggesting that the sector has entered an investment range [5] Summary by Sections New Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in new housing contracts has expanded to -14% as of June 26, with a notable drop in first-tier cities [3] - The report notes that the year-on-year decline in new housing contracts is at a middle level compared to the past five years [8] Second-Hand Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing contracts has narrowed to -1%, with first-tier cities showing a 9% increase [3] - The report indicates that the second-hand housing contract area has shown a positive trend in certain sample cities, with some cities experiencing a year-on-year increase [13] Market Trends and Indicators - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities has increased by 3.9% month-on-month, indicating a positive shift in market activity [40] - The liquidity outlook suggests an expansion in macro-level liquidity as of June 2025, which may support market recovery [44] Land Acquisition and Pricing - The cumulative land transaction area from January to May 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of -7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [20] - The report notes that the proportion of properties with increased listing prices has decreased by 4.3% month-on-month, indicating a potential cooling in price increases [47]

Summary of Yuexiu Property Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yuexiu Property - **Industry**: Real Estate Key Points Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, sales decreased by 26% year-on-year, but the company remains confident in achieving the annual sales target of 120.5 billion yuan [2][4] - From January to May 2025, the company achieved sales of 50 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 26% [4] Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in core cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai, ranking first in Beijing and second in Guangzhou [4] - New projects like "Heyue Wangyun" have performed well, contributing to the company's strong market presence [2] Land Acquisition and Investment - In 2025, the company acquired ten new land parcels totaling 1.03 million square meters with an equity investment of 7.6 billion yuan, aiming for a total equity investment of 30 billion yuan for the year [2][5] - The company plans to adjust equity ratios in Guangzhou projects to optimize resource allocation [2][5] Financial Health - The company meets the "three red lines" criteria and has a cash reserve of 50 billion yuan, with a stable reduction in interest-bearing debt [2][6] - Financing costs are approximately 3.49%, with expectations for further reductions [6] Land Reserves - Total unsold land reserves are valued at approximately 360 billion yuan, with 40% located in the Greater Bay Area [3][15] - The company will continue to focus on opportunities in core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou [3] Strategies for Idle Land - The company successfully stored 13.5 billion yuan in land in 2024 and plans to negotiate with local governments to activate idle land through land swaps or converting commercial land to residential use [7][10] Response to Market Changes - The company believes that the current housing sales policy will not significantly impact overall business and plans to respond proactively within the policy framework [8][9] New Project Launches - In June 2025, the company plans to launch key projects in core cities, including Guangzhou and Xi'an, with expectations for good performance despite stricter regulations on new residential products [11][12][13] Profitability and Financial Metrics - The current dynamic gross profit margin is approximately 15%, with expectations for a gross margin of no less than 10% in 2025 [22][29] - The company has set internal return on investment (IRR) and net profit margin targets to ensure profitability on new projects [19][20] Future Investment Strategy - The company employs a "6+1" investment strategy, focusing on non-public land acquisition methods to mitigate risks associated with high bidding prices in core cities [17] Urban Renewal and Policy Support - Urban renewal progress in Guangzhou has been slower than expected, but recent national policies may provide support for future developments [34] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a consistent dividend payout ratio of 40% of core net profit over the past nine years, with no expected changes [31] Overall Market Outlook - The company anticipates stable revenue for 2025, with a focus on managing inventory and reducing potential impairment losses [32][34]

Summary of China Resources Land Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Land - **Period**: January to May 2025 Key Financial Metrics - **Total Revenue**: 20.4 billion CNY, up 10% year-on-year [2] - **Operating Real Estate Revenue**: 13.3 billion CNY, up 13% year-on-year [2] - **Shopping Center Rental Income**: 11.4 billion CNY, up 17% year-on-year, with same-store growth of 6% [2] - **Office Rental Income**: Decreased by 7% year-on-year [5] - **Hotel Revenue**: Decreased by 9% year-on-year [5] - **Contracted Sales Amount**: 86.9 billion CNY, down 6% year-on-year [3] - **Contracted Area**: 3.22 million square meters, down 19% year-on-year [3] - **New Land Acquisitions**: 14 plots for a total of 42.7 billion CNY [3] Retail Performance - **Shopping Center Retail Sales Growth**: Approximately 20% year-on-year for January to May, with same-store growth in high single digits [6] - **Customer Traffic Growth**: 35% year-on-year for both January to May and May alone [6] - **Luxury Shopping Centers**: 13 luxury centers outperformed overall growth rates [6] Development and Sales Strategy - **New Saleable Resources**: Over 900 billion CNY added, totaling over 5 trillion CNY in saleable resources [2][7] - **Expected Contracted Sales Growth**: Slight increase anticipated for the year, with improved absorption rates [7] - **Focus on High-Quality Cities**: Emphasis on high-net-worth cities and project return metrics [2][10] Financial Management - **Gross Margin**: Maintained around 15% [10] - **Net Profit Margin**: Expected between 8% to 10% [10] - **Internal Rate of Return (IRR)**: Targeted at over 15% [10] - **Debt Management**: Total interest-bearing debt expected to rise slightly, but net debt ratio remains stable due to asset growth [21] Land Acquisition Strategy - **Land Market Activity**: Active in first-tier cities, with land acquisition amounts exceeding last year's levels [9] - **Investment Discipline**: Focus on high-value cities without land acquisition anxiety [10] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - **Capital Expenditure**: Expected to peak this year, with ongoing projects impacting future cash flow [15][16] - **Future Financing Costs**: Anticipated to remain stable, with a focus on domestic financing [25][26] Dividend Policy - **Dividend Stability**: Maintained at 37% of core net profit, unchanged since 2022 [29] Strategic Outlook - **Asset Management Transformation**: Transitioning to a large asset management model to enhance value realization [30] - **Public REITs**: Successful injection of assets into REITs, with significant valuation increases [30] - **Future Growth Opportunities**: Focus on high-growth assets and projects to create new value opportunities [30] Risk Management - **Inventory Management**: Not relying on price cuts to drive sales; instead, focusing on sales velocity through strategic pricing [18] - **Potential Impact of Housing Policy Changes**: Uncertainty regarding the implementation of existing housing sale policies and their effects on cash flow and project returns [19] Conclusion China Resources Land demonstrates a solid financial performance with strategic focus on high-quality urban developments, disciplined investment practices, and a commitment to maintaining stable dividends while navigating market challenges.