沪指突破10年新高之际，央视财经也罕见的出现了评论，认为A股总市值突破100万亿元大关，有更深远的意义，因为股市是经济的晴 雨表，总市值的稳步增长是中国经济稳健发展的最有利佐证。 更为重要的是，当前的沪深300动态市盈率大约为14倍，比2015年同期水平还要低，并且跟全球的主要市值比较也处于合理的具有吸引 力的区间，结论是目前中国资产的系统性重估才刚刚重启。 这段话不要看句子不长，当中的指引性和意义却不小，我觉得重点有以下几个核心： 其一，央视财经评论虽然不能算过于权威，然而其在媒体中的重量是不可小视的，特别是在指数突破了10年高点之际，出来喊话还是值 得我们去重新认识市场； 其二，以当前的沪深300动态市盈率看大约只有14倍，比2025年同期的水平还要低，这里其实我们最好看看2015年这个时候指数处在一 个什么样的状态，我看了一下上证指数处在4000点附近，如此的话，说明目前的指数位置依然比较低，并不是大家担心的那样，到了10 年高点附近，市场的高位问题； 其三，100万亿市值这个水平，和全球的主要市场的估值比较，也是比较有吸引力的，这本质上经过对比，对目前沪指上了3700点之后 是不是高估给了比较明确的定 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rise in commodity prices and the stock market is mainly driven by expectations. The increase in commodity prices has a limited impact on bond market funds due to the limited scale of the commodity market and large differences among investors. The focus is on the impact of the stock market rise on the bond market [4][12]. - The flow of funds from the bond market to the stock market is limited. The impact of the stock market on the bond market through changes in residents' asset allocation and financial institutions' asset structure is not significant, and the bond market does not face direct capital outflow pressure [4][6][7]. - The risk of further significant adjustment in the bond market is limited. It is recommended to hold bonds for observation. The stock market rise is more driven by valuation recovery and requires a low - interest - rate environment, making a simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds more likely [7][40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Impact of Stock Market on Residents' Asset Allocation - **New Savings**: There is no significant correlation between the residents' savings rate and the stock market. The stock market has neither an obvious wealth effect nor a significant crowding - out effect on consumption. For example, during the 2014 - 2015 bull market and the stock market rally from September to October last year, the residents' savings rate did not decrease significantly [4][13]. - **Stock of Assets**: In the distribution of residents' financial and non - financial assets, the stock market bull market generally does not significantly squeeze non - financial assets such as real estate. The stock market trend and the sales volume of commercial housing are often positively correlated, indicating that there is no obvious behavior of selling real estate to invest in stocks [5][13]. - **Financial Asset Structure**: During the stock market bull market, funds may flow from residents' deposits to the stock market. There is a significant negative correlation between residents' deposits and the rise and fall of the Shanghai Composite Index. For every 1000 - point increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, the growth rate of residents' deposits drops by 3.5 percentage points. However, this is just a change in the form of deposits, not a net decrease in deposits, so it does not bring direct pressure on bond market capital outflow [6]. 3.2 Impact of Stock Market on Financial Institutions' Asset Allocation - **Funds**: When the stock market is strong, funds will increase the proportion of equity assets, and institutions will increase the subscription of equity - linked funds and reduce the subscription of pure - bond funds. In the past, during stock market rallies, bond funds faced certain redemption pressure. For example, during the stock market rally from September to October last year, the bond fund share decreased by 700 billion shares. But this time, the pressure on bond fund scale may be less than last year [7][16]. - **Insurance**: The rise of the stock market has limited impact on insurance premium income. It mainly affects the asset allocation structure of insurance. Although the investment in stocks increases, the investment in bonds does not necessarily decrease. For example, during the stock market rally from September to October last year, the stock investment of life insurance in the fourth quarter of last year increased by 84.1 billion yuan, while the bond investment increased by 822.6 billion yuan [7][20]. - **Wealth Management**: The scale of funds transferred from wealth management products to the stock market is relatively limited due to the inconsistent risk preferences of investors. The proportion of equity assets in wealth management assets decreased in the second half of last year, while the proportion of bond assets increased significantly. The share of equity assets decreased from 2.8% in June last year to 2.6% in December, and the share of bond assets increased from 55.6% to 57.9% [26]. 3.3 Market Negative Feedback Redemption Pressure Currently, funds and wealth management products do not show obvious redemption pressure. Wealth management products did not experience large - scale net - value breakage, and in March 2025, about 23% of wealth management assets were in cash and deposits, with strong redemption - coping ability. Bond funds are mainly held by institutional investors, and if their liabilities are stable, the redemption pressure is relatively limited [7][38].

Group 1: Economic Overview - Since early 2025, the economic downturn and reciprocal tariffs have led to a continuous decline in the US stock market, raising concerns about potential negative feedback on the economy and signaling a possible recession [1][30] - The US imposed a baseline tariff of 10% on global imports and additional tariffs ranging from 20% to 49% on over 60 countries with the highest trade deficits, exceeding market expectations [30][35] Group 2: Market Reactions - Major stock indices in developed markets experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq down 10.0%, S&P 500 down 9.1%, and Nikkei 225 down 9.0% [4][7] - Emerging market indices also fell, with the South African FTSE down 9.0% and the Ho Chi Minh Index down 8.1% [4] Group 3: Employment Data - In March, the US non-farm payrolls added 228,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 140,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [2][41] - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5%, indicating a recovery from the extreme weather impacts earlier in the year [41] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - As of April 5, the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates four times in 2025, specifically in June, July, September, and December [2][35] - Despite the economic outlook deteriorating, recent hard data has shown resilience, leading to a cautious stance from Fed officials [35][37] Group 5: Manufacturing Sector - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for March was reported at 49.0, slightly below the expected 49.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [38] - The price index surged to 69.4, reflecting concerns over the impact of tariffs on domestic manufacturing [38] Group 6: Commodity Market - The WTI crude oil price dropped by 10.6% to $62.0 per barrel, while Brent crude fell by 10.9% to $65.6 per barrel [23][28] - Precious metals also saw declines, with COMEX gold down 1.8% to $3,035.6 per ounce and COMEX silver down 15.1% to $29.5 per ounce [28]