近期香港楼市呈现活跃态势，成交数据与市场情绪同步回升。有地产从业者介绍，今年(2025年)前11个 月香港新房及二手房成交量，均已大幅超过去年整年。第一财经记者走访香港多地，对话地产从业者与 学者，他们认为"撤辣"政策降低交易成本、全球利率进入下行周期、香港IPO市场重拾活力，共同推动 楼市情绪转暖。 然而，市场分歧依然存在：是超级豪宅拉动均价？本地购买力又能否接棒？ 香港中文大学刘佐德全球 经济及金融研究所常务所长庄太量指出，楼市库存正逐步消化，市场有望逐步企稳。但未来走势仍与股 市表现、人才政策及经济环境紧密相连。更现场、更财经，一探究竟！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 近期香港楼市呈现活跃态势，成交数据与市场情绪同步回升。有地产从业者介绍，今年(2025年)前11个 月香港新房及二手房成交量，均已大幅超过去年整年。第一财经记者走访香港多地，对话地产从业者与 学者，他们认为"撤辣"政策降低交易成本、全球利率进入下行周期、香港IPO市场重拾活力，共同推动 楼市情绪转暖。 然而，市场分歧依然存在：是超级豪宅拉动均价？本地购买力又能否接棒？ 香港中文大学刘佐德全 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a resurgence after a four-year adjustment period, with significant sales activity and a return of foreign buyers [1][2][3] - Recent government policies, including tax reductions and mortgage rate adjustments, have stimulated demand and improved buyer confidence [5][6][7] - The rental market is also showing strong performance, with rising rental yields attracting investors [10][11] Market Performance - In October, over 1,700 new property transactions were recorded, marking the ninth consecutive month of sales exceeding 1,000 units, matching the longest streak since 2019 [1] - High-value transactions have surged, with at least 64 sales exceeding 50 million HKD in October alone, totaling over 6.8 billion HKD [1] - The new property market has seen a total of 15,900 transactions by the end of October, surpassing the total for the entire previous year [3] Buyer Behavior - There is a notable trend of large buyers purchasing entire floors or multiple units, indicating strong demand from professional buyers [2][3] - The influx of mainland buyers is significant, with projections suggesting over 12,000 transactions from this group for the year, setting a new record [3] Government Policies - The Hong Kong government has implemented measures to reduce property transaction taxes, significantly lowering costs for local and mainland buyers [5][7] - Recent policy changes have also included adjustments to mortgage limits and investment immigration policies, further stimulating the market [6] Rental Market Dynamics - The rental yield in Hong Kong has stabilized around 4%, making property investment more attractive compared to traditional savings [10][11] - The rental market is experiencing increased demand due to a rise in non-local students and skilled professionals, pushing rental prices higher [9][10] Future Outlook - Analysts from major financial institutions predict a continued recovery in the Hong Kong real estate market, with expectations of a sustained upward trend in property prices post-2025 [1][11] - The combination of suppressed demand being released, favorable mortgage conditions, and rising rents is expected to support the market's recovery [11]

Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Background - The stock price of Henderson Land Development (00012.HK) closed at HKD 25.91 on August 11, 2025, reflecting a 1.5% increase from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 74,500 lots and a total market capitalization of HKD 125.424 billion [4] - The company's 2024 financial report indicated a revenue of HKD 23.388 billion and a net profit of HKD 6.744 billion, with earnings per share at HKD 1.3 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.9 times [4] - The "withdrawal of cooling measures" policy implemented in February 2024 significantly reduced home buying costs, stimulating market demand [4] Group 2: Industry Sales Data and Growth Drivers - In July 2025, the number of residential property sale agreements in Hong Kong reached 5,766, marking a year-on-year increase of 54.8%, with the primary market seeing over 1,000 transactions for six consecutive months [6] - The private residential price index rose for three consecutive months, with a year-to-date decline of only 0.86%, while the rental index increased by 1.61% over the same period [6] - The introduction of the talent import scheme is expected to attract over 75,000 high-end talents and their families to Hong Kong, boosting rental and purchasing demand [6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The property sales of Henderson Land Development are likely to exceed expectations due to the overall market recovery and favorable policies, particularly in high-end residential and core area projects [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the Hong Kong property market, driven by lower interest rates and improved market confidence [5] - The long-term demand is supported by the Northern Metropolis planning, which includes 176,000 residential units, and the talent scheme [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, driven by declining interest rates, population influx, and favorable policies, with experts predicting continued high transaction activity in the future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the second quarter of this year, both transaction volume and prices in the Hong Kong real estate market have gradually stabilized, with July seeing a 37.1% year-on-year increase in all types of property sales contracts registered [2]. - The number of residential property sales contracts registered in July reached 5,766, marking a 54.8% year-on-year increase [2]. - The private residential price index showed a slight monthly increase of 0.03% in June, marking three consecutive months of growth, which reduced the year-to-date price decline to 0.86% [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The decline in interest rates has significantly lowered mortgage costs, with current mortgage rates around 2%, thus supporting housing demand [2]. - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has dropped significantly since May, with the one-month HIBOR reported at 1.73% as of August 4 [2]. Group 3: Talent Influx and Rental Demand - The introduction of talent attraction programs has led to an influx of over 75,000 high-end talents and their families into Hong Kong by the end of 2024, boosting rental and purchasing demand [3]. - The rental index for private residential properties increased by approximately 0.31% month-on-month in June, marking a continuous rise for seven months, with a cumulative increase of 1.61% in the first half of the year [3]. Group 4: Mainland Buyers - The relaxation of property purchase restrictions has made it easier for mainland buyers to participate in the Hong Kong real estate market, with a notable increase in their activity [4]. - In June, mainland buyers registered 1,237 transactions in the Hong Kong residential market, representing a month-on-month increase of approximately 21.9%, with transaction amounts reaching around HKD 11 billion, up about 14.4% [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The positive fundamentals of Hong Kong's economy are expected to continue supporting the stabilization of the real estate market [5]. - Factors such as favorable stock market conditions, sustained low HIBOR, and the upcoming launch of multiple new developments are anticipated to maintain strong transaction momentum in the primary market [5].