固定收益 | 固定收益专题 出口韧性怎么看？ 证券研究报告 2025 全年出口增速预测 2025 年前 7 个月我国出口稳健增长，累计同比 6.1%（美元计价），高于 2024 全年 5.8%的增速。往后看，我们从定性和定量两个角度分析出口韧性。 中国出口额=全球出口额×中国出口占全球出口的比重；对出口的定性分 析，可以分为两部分：一是全球贸易活动的强度（我国出口的β），二是中 国占全球出口的份额（我国出口的α）。 全球商品贸易量增速：下半年或偏向降温 首先，美国"抢进口"前置需求。2024 年 10 月至今年 3 月美国"抢进口"、 家庭抢购囤货，商品实际消费增速均阶段性上行。需求前置，或令美国居 民消费、企业进口下半年降温。美国 6 月进口同比转负，反映需求收缩。 其次，关税扰动下，全球制造业景气度的回升之路或坎坷。关税扰动下， 企业资本开支意愿偏弱，全球制造业景气度的回升之路或坎坷。2018 年贸 易摩擦开启后，全球贸易增速也从上行转入下行。 第三，弱美元往往推升全球贸易增速，但下半年美元的下行或有限。历史 上看，宽松的货币环境、美元和利率下行时，全球贸易活动活跃度上升， 而偏紧的流动性环境，会抑制企业 ...

Group 1: Export Growth Predictions - The current month’s export growth rate is showing marginal weakness but remains resilient, with the monitoring of port container throughput being the most practical high-frequency indicator[2] - The global manufacturing PMI from JPMorgan indicates a continued weakening in overall trade demand, with the PMI dropping below the neutral line in May[3] - The export volume is expected to continue with a strong price but weak price structure, as indicated by the PPI trends[4] Group 2: Import and Export Dynamics - China’s "excess" exports from March to May amounted to approximately $50.4 billion, representing about 17% of the average export value for the first five months of the year[5] - The U.S. has seen a significant increase in imports, with an estimated excess of $188.3 billion from December 2024 to May 2025, accounting for 68.6% of the average monthly imports[6] - The transfer port trade ratio is estimated to be between 41% and 58.7%, indicating a notable shift in trade patterns[8] Group 3: Annual Export Forecasts - The annual export growth rate is projected to range from -5% to 0%, depending on the occurrence of systemic risks[9] - Global trade demand is expected to decline, with the WTO predicting a decrease in global trade volume growth to -0.2% for 2025, which is 3 percentage points lower than previous forecasts[10] - The risk of export transfer is monitored through various indicators, with the gap between U.S. import growth and Chinese export growth widening significantly in the first quarter[11]