证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 | ] 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | | 邮 | 箱：xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱：mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 中国对美出口份额由谁来填补？ ——出口专题 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 22 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 对于中国出口份额而言，亚洲区域是填补美国市场的主力，非洲区域是次 要力量。中国对美出口份额回落后，这一缺口七成由亚洲填补，三成则由 非洲填补。第一，亚洲市场里，东盟填补最多 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 出口韧性怎么看？ 证券研究报告 2025 全年出口增速预测 2025 年前 7 个月我国出口稳健增长，累计同比 6.1%（美元计价），高于 2024 全年 5.8%的增速。往后看，我们从定性和定量两个角度分析出口韧性。 中国出口额=全球出口额×中国出口占全球出口的比重；对出口的定性分 析，可以分为两部分：一是全球贸易活动的强度（我国出口的β），二是中 国占全球出口的份额（我国出口的α）。 全球商品贸易量增速：下半年或偏向降温 首先，美国"抢进口"前置需求。2024 年 10 月至今年 3 月美国"抢进口"、 家庭抢购囤货，商品实际消费增速均阶段性上行。需求前置，或令美国居 民消费、企业进口下半年降温。美国 6 月进口同比转负，反映需求收缩。 其次，关税扰动下，全球制造业景气度的回升之路或坎坷。关税扰动下， 企业资本开支意愿偏弱，全球制造业景气度的回升之路或坎坷。2018 年贸 易摩擦开启后，全球贸易增速也从上行转入下行。 第三，弱美元往往推升全球贸易增速，但下半年美元的下行或有限。历史 上看，宽松的货币环境、美元和利率下行时，全球贸易活动活跃度上升， 而偏紧的流动性环境，会抑制企业 ...

Export Performance - July exports increased significantly by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in June[6] - Exports to the US saw a decline of 21.7% in July, compared to a 16.1% drop in June, primarily due to the upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions[6] - Exports to non-US regions, particularly ASEAN and Africa, showed strong performance with increases of 16.6% and 42.4% respectively[6] Trade Dynamics - The indirect trade channels are expected to continue supporting exports, particularly for intermediate and capital goods[6] - Capital goods exports to Southeast Asia and Africa maintained high growth rates, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 19.4% and 39.1% respectively over the first five months[6] - The delay in tariff exemption deadlines by the Trump administration has potentially stimulated a new wave of foreign trade orders[6] Market Outlook - The weakening demand in the US market is likely to continue affecting consumer goods exports in the short term[6] - The upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions may limit the support for direct exports to the US, especially for consumer products[6] - The overall import growth in July was supported by stable alternative supply channels for major commodities, with significant increases in imports of grains, soybeans, and crude oil[6]

同比数据方面，非耐用消费品依旧表现强劲，欧元区增长11.6%，欧盟增长9.4%；资本品生产同比分别 增长4.5%和4.4%。中间产品与耐用品则同比下降，其中欧元区中间产品下降1.8%，耐用品微降0.1%。 国家层面，爱尔兰同比增幅高达40.7%，居欧盟首位，芬兰和瑞典分别增长5.9%和5.0%。而比利时、保 加利亚和丹麦工业生产则出现较大幅度同比下滑，分别下降7.3%、6.5%和4.2%。 数据显示，自去年底以来，欧元区工业生产呈现波动回升态势，尤其是消费相关产业回暖为整体制造业 提供支撑。 分类数据显示，非耐用消费品生产在当月大幅增长，是推动整体工业生产回升的主要动力。欧元区非耐 用品生产环比增长8.5%，欧盟增长7.1%。能源生产也出现回暖，欧元区增长3.7%，欧盟增长3.2%。资 本品生产延续升势，分别增长2.7%和2.0%。 不过，中间产品与耐用品生产表现疲弱。欧元区中间产品和耐用品环比分别下降1.7%和1.9%；欧盟则 下降1.3%和1.8%。 从成员国看，工业生产环比增幅最大的国家为爱尔兰，增长12.4%；其次为马耳他（+3.4%），德国增 幅2.2%，表现也较为亮眼。 新华财经法兰克福7月15日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite high tariffs, the appeal of "Made in China" products remains strong due to their quality, service, market proximity, and reasonable pricing [2][6]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has led to a significant increase in American consumers seeking products from Chinese e-commerce platforms, with a 940% surge in downloads on April 13 [5]. - The actual tariff rates in the U.S. have reached unprecedented levels, adversely affecting both Chinese factories and American consumers, who are facing rising prices in essential goods [5][7]. - Over 90% of the tariff costs are being passed on to U.S. importers, downstream businesses, and ultimately consumers, exacerbating inflation and reducing consumer confidence [5]. Group 2: Consumer Preferences - American consumers are drawn to Chinese products due to their affordability and variety, with a wide range of goods available from low-cost items to high-end equipment [6]. - The shopping experience for foreign consumers in China has improved significantly, with policies like 240-hour visa-free transit and instant tax refunds enhancing accessibility [6]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The essence of trade is mutual benefit, with U.S. exports to China creating 931,000 jobs in America, highlighting the interdependence of the two economies [7]. - American companies, such as Walmart, source approximately 60% of their products from China, demonstrating the reliance on Chinese manufacturing for global market expansion [7]. - The article concludes that trade barriers like tariffs cannot distort market principles, and the demand for quality products will ultimately prevail, leading to a path of mutual benefit between China and the world [7].