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出口专题:中国对美出口份额由谁来填补?
Xinda Securities· 2025-08-22 09:04
证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 | ] 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业编号:S1500521040002 | | | 联系电话:010-83326858 | | | 邮 | 箱:xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号:S1500524070002 邮 箱:mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 中国对美出口份额由谁来填补? ——出口专题 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 22 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编:100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 对于中国出口份额而言,亚洲区域是填补美国市场的主力,非洲区域是次 要力量。中国对美出口份额回落后,这一缺口七成由亚洲填补,三成则由 非洲填补。第一,亚洲市场里,东盟填补最多 ...
2025全年出口增速预测:出口韧性怎么看?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-12 05:11
固定收益 | 固定收益专题 出口韧性怎么看? 证券研究报告 2025 全年出口增速预测 2025 年前 7 个月我国出口稳健增长,累计同比 6.1%(美元计价),高于 2024 全年 5.8%的增速。往后看,我们从定性和定量两个角度分析出口韧性。 中国出口额=全球出口额×中国出口占全球出口的比重;对出口的定性分 析,可以分为两部分:一是全球贸易活动的强度(我国出口的β),二是中 国占全球出口的份额(我国出口的α)。 全球商品贸易量增速:下半年或偏向降温 首先,美国"抢进口"前置需求。2024 年 10 月至今年 3 月美国"抢进口"、 家庭抢购囤货,商品实际消费增速均阶段性上行。需求前置,或令美国居 民消费、企业进口下半年降温。美国 6 月进口同比转负,反映需求收缩。 其次,关税扰动下,全球制造业景气度的回升之路或坎坷。关税扰动下, 企业资本开支意愿偏弱,全球制造业景气度的回升之路或坎坷。2018 年贸 易摩擦开启后,全球贸易增速也从上行转入下行。 第三,弱美元往往推升全球贸易增速,但下半年美元的下行或有限。历史 上看,宽松的货币环境、美元和利率下行时,全球贸易活动活跃度上升, 而偏紧的流动性环境,会抑制企业 ...
间接贸易渠道和出海链对出口的支撑或将延续
Orient Securities· 2025-08-11 14:41
Export Performance - July exports increased significantly by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 5.9% in June[6] - Exports to the US saw a decline of 21.7% in July, compared to a 16.1% drop in June, primarily due to the upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions[6] - Exports to non-US regions, particularly ASEAN and Africa, showed strong performance with increases of 16.6% and 42.4% respectively[6] Trade Dynamics - The indirect trade channels are expected to continue supporting exports, particularly for intermediate and capital goods[6] - Capital goods exports to Southeast Asia and Africa maintained high growth rates, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 19.4% and 39.1% respectively over the first five months[6] - The delay in tariff exemption deadlines by the Trump administration has potentially stimulated a new wave of foreign trade orders[6] Market Outlook - The weakening demand in the US market is likely to continue affecting consumer goods exports in the short term[6] - The upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions may limit the support for direct exports to the US, especially for consumer products[6] - The overall import growth in July was supported by stable alternative supply channels for major commodities, with significant increases in imports of grains, soybeans, and crude oil[6]
以中间品贸易开拓多元市场
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-07 23:04
Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the importance of expanding high-level opening-up and stabilizing foreign trade and investment, highlighting the significance of integrated domestic and foreign trade, with intermediate goods trade playing a crucial role in connecting production links and promoting industrial chain collaboration [1] Group 1: Importance of Intermediate Goods Trade - Intermediate goods trade is a product of deepening domestic and international division of labor and technology diffusion, serving as the underlying logic for continuous industrial chain upgrades [2] - By 2024, China's import and export of intermediate goods is expected to account for about 60% of total foreign trade, with electromechanical intermediate goods exports exceeding 50%, particularly in new materials and new energy sectors showing significant growth [1][2] Group 2: Economic Significance - Strengthening domestic industrial chain resilience by connecting raw material supply, component processing, and end manufacturing, which helps mitigate risks from disruptions in single links [2] - Promoting technology diffusion and innovation, where high-tech intermediate goods exports reflect domestic technological accumulation, facilitating faster technology spread through upstream and downstream collaboration [2] - Driving economies of scale and cost optimization, as intermediate goods trade expands market demand and allows companies to produce at larger scales, enhancing competitiveness and overall efficiency of the domestic industrial system [2] Group 3: Strategies for Development - Accelerating the structural upgrade of intermediate goods trade by shifting focus from primary products to semi-finished and high-value-added components, with increased R&D support in green manufacturing, digital technology, and intelligent equipment [3] - Improving the policy support system by unifying statistics, classifications, tariffs, and financial policies to better support small and medium-sized enterprises in participating in domestic and international industrial chains [3] - Building a tighter regional collaboration network by leveraging the unique advantages of different regions in industrial structure, technology level, and resource endowment to form a closed supply chain within the country [3] Group 4: Systematic Mechanism Assurance - Establishing a comprehensive support system for strategic intermediate goods from R&D to export, optimizing industrial policies, and enhancing coordination of domestic and international rules [4] - Strengthening the voice and collaboration mechanisms in the industrial chain through industry associations and leading enterprises to align domestic standards with international standards, transforming them into industrial advantages [4]
中经评论:关税高墙挡不住“中国造”的吸引力
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-04-29 05:16
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite high tariffs, the appeal of "Made in China" products remains strong due to their quality, service, market proximity, and reasonable pricing [2][6]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has led to a significant increase in American consumers seeking products from Chinese e-commerce platforms, with a 940% surge in downloads on April 13 [5]. - The actual tariff rates in the U.S. have reached unprecedented levels, adversely affecting both Chinese factories and American consumers, who are facing rising prices in essential goods [5][7]. - Over 90% of the tariff costs are being passed on to U.S. importers, downstream businesses, and ultimately consumers, exacerbating inflation and reducing consumer confidence [5]. Group 2: Consumer Preferences - American consumers are drawn to Chinese products due to their affordability and variety, with a wide range of goods available from low-cost items to high-end equipment [6]. - The shopping experience for foreign consumers in China has improved significantly, with policies like 240-hour visa-free transit and instant tax refunds enhancing accessibility [6]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The essence of trade is mutual benefit, with U.S. exports to China creating 931,000 jobs in America, highlighting the interdependence of the two economies [7]. - American companies, such as Walmart, source approximately 60% of their products from China, demonstrating the reliance on Chinese manufacturing for global market expansion [7]. - The article concludes that trade barriers like tariffs cannot distort market principles, and the demand for quality products will ultimately prevail, leading to a path of mutual benefit between China and the world [7].