Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, anticipating potential market resilience in 2026 due to policy support and corporate improvements [1] 2025 Review - In the first nine months of 2025, China's retail sales reached 365.877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with retail sales of non-automotive consumer goods growing by 4.9% [1] - Cosmetics sales increased by 3.9%, while gold and jewelry sales surged by 11.5% due to a low base last year and rising gold prices [1] - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports amounted to approximately 2.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.4% growth despite external tariff impacts [1] Structural Highlights - The consumption landscape in 2025 shows structural highlights in sectors like pets, trendy toys, personal care, and jewelry, driven by new consumer insights and product innovation [2] - The new consumption industry trends and the reversal expectations of traditional consumption are identified as two core themes, with initial positive market performance followed by a cooling phase [2] 2026 Outlook - New Market: Exploration of incremental growth opportunities in domestic markets and continued overseas expansion as a key strategy for Chinese brands [3] - New Demand: Insights into emerging consumer preferences will drive product innovation focused on emotional and practical value [3] - Platformization: In a competitive environment, companies need to develop platform mechanisms and explore new opportunities to ensure sustainable growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trademark dispute between Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Group and JDB Group over the "Wong Lo Kat" brand highlights the challenges in the herbal tea market, which has been struggling in recent years [1][2]. Trademark Dispute - On October 10, JDB issued a statement regarding the ownership of the "Wong Lo Kat" trademark overseas, marking the second such statement in a short period [2]. - Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Group claims to have registered the "Wong Lo Kat" trademark in over 100 countries, accusing JDB of misinterpreting trademark law and hindering international business development [2]. - The dispute has shifted focus to overseas markets, indicating a prolonged legal battle similar to the ongoing Red Bull trademark case [2]. Brand History and Market Strategy - The "Wong Lo Kat" brand has a long history, with its overseas registration linked to the descendants of Wang Zebang, who authorized JDB to use the brand [4]. - JDB's strategy involved rebranding "Wong Lo Kat" to "JDB" in overseas markets to maintain brand consistency and avoid consumer confusion [4]. - In 2023, Guangzhou Pharmaceutical launched an overseas plan for "Wong Lo Kat" and registered the "Walovi" trademark, although the name may not resonate with younger consumers [5]. Sales Performance - Both companies experienced a significant decline in gift box sales during the recent Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, marking one of the coldest years for sales [8][10]. - The overall gifting market has been affected by various factors, including poor weather and changing consumer behavior, leading to a decrease in impulse purchases [10]. - The traditional gifting market has been in decline, with younger consumers less inclined to participate in gifting traditions [10]. Market Opportunities and Challenges - Both companies are facing challenges in the domestic market, with missed opportunities in emerging product categories such as sugar-free tea and plant-based beverages [13]. - The overseas market presents potential growth opportunities, especially as more Chinese companies target international consumers [13]. - The competition for market share in the herbal tea segment is intensifying, with both companies reluctant to cede ground in this lucrative area [13].