本报记者 张文湘 见习记者 占健宇 8月22日晚，上海妙可蓝多食品科技股份有限公司（以下简称"妙可蓝多"）发布2025年半年报，2025年 上半年，妙可蓝多实现营业收入25.67亿元，同比增长7.98%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.33亿 元，较上年同期大幅增长86.27%。 公开资料显示，妙可蓝多主营业务为以奶酪为核心的特色乳制品的研发、生产和销售，其中奶酪产品可 以进一步细分为即食营养系列、家庭餐桌系列和餐饮工业系列。 半年报显示，2025年上半年，妙可蓝多与蒙牛奶酪双品牌融合协同效应增强，即食营养系列、餐饮工业 系列、家庭餐桌系列分别实现营业收入10.83亿元、8.16亿元、2.36亿元，三大奶酪产品系列均延续正增 长。其中，餐饮工业系列营业收入同比增长36.26%，同时国产奶酪进程推进亦带来毛利率持续提升； 家庭餐桌系列受益于渠道合作深化及整合带来的优势品项扩充，营业收入同比增长28.44%。 细分来看，今年上半年，即食营养奶酪方面，儿童营养奶酪系列已形成涵盖多款不同形态产品的矩阵， 全面覆盖儿童食用场景；成人休闲奶酪系列推出奶酪小三角、云朵芝士等新品以及多款功能奶酪产品。 同时，公司不断拓宽常 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 妙可蓝多（600882） 2025 年中报点评：BC 双驱，成长确立 2025 年 08 月 22 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,322 | 4,844 | 5,370 | 6,160 | 7,120 | | 同比（%） | 10.20 | (8.99) | 10.87 | 14.71 | 15.58 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 60.07 | 113.62 | 282.23 | 382.69 | 486.42 | | 同比（%） | (56.35) | 89.16 | 148.40 | 35.59 | 27.10 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.55 | 0.75 | 0.95 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 237.93 | 125.78 | 50.64 | 37.34 | 29.38 | [关 ...

Group 1 - The cheese consumption penetration rate in China is significantly lower than that in Japan, South Korea, the UK, and the US, indicating a large growth potential for the industry [1][2] - The current per capita cheese consumption in China is only 0.2 kg, compared to Japan's 1.8 kg, suggesting substantial room for improvement [2] - The domestic cheese market is still in its growth phase, with a stable competitive landscape and low self-sufficiency rate, necessitating the release of local production capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The leading company, Miaokelando, is expected to enhance its market position through channel integration and cost reduction in the short term, while focusing on deep processing for long-term growth [2] - Miaokelando maintains a leading market share and is strengthening its competitive advantage through partnerships with Mengniu and continuous product innovation [2] - The company is diversifying its distribution channels and expanding collaborations with restaurants and industrial enterprises to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [4][10]. Core Views - The company is actively enriching its product matrix and strengthening its ambient products, enhancing C-end channel diversification and B-end channel synergy after integrating Mengniu Cheese, leading to a significant improvement in profitability for H1 2025 [2][10]. - The company expects a notable increase in net profit for H1 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120-145 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 56.29%-88.86% [10]. - The integration of Mengniu Cheese has strengthened synergy across the entire operation, from procurement to sales, enhancing efficiency and profitability [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is 5,322 million yuan, with projections of 4,844 million yuan for 2024, and expected growth to 5,313 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 9.7% increase [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 60 million yuan in 2023 to 225 million yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 97.7% [3][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.12 yuan in 2023 to 0.44 yuan in 2025, with a projected net asset return rate of 4.9% in 2025 [3][11]. Market Data - The company's target price is set at 33.20 yuan, with a current price of 28.34 yuan [4][10]. - The market capitalization is approximately 14,512 million yuan, with a 52-week price range of 11.78-32.69 yuan [5][10]. Financial Ratios - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 241.60 in 2023 to 64.61 in 2025, indicating improved valuation [3][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 1.3% in 2023 to 4.9% in 2025, reflecting enhanced profitability [3][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company is enhancing its product matrix and strengthening its ambient product offerings, integrating Mengniu Cheese to diversify C-end channels and synergize B-end channels, leading to a significant improvement in profitability by H1 2025 [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The investment rating has been upgraded to "Buy." The company's EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 0.44 (+0.01), 0.64 (+0.01), and 0.85 (+0.01) yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 97.7%, 46.8%, and 32.6% respectively [2]. - The company expects a significant increase in profitability for H1 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120-145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.29%-88.86%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be 90-115 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 58.22%-102.16% [2]. - Following the acquisition of Mengniu Cheese, the company reported a year-on-year net profit growth of 68.10%-103.12% when compared to adjusted data, with a similar growth rate for net profit excluding non-recurring items [2]. Product and Channel Innovation - The company is focusing on its core cheese business, continuously enriching and optimizing its product matrix. The C-end cheese sticks are expanding from low-temperature to ambient products, with new product forms being introduced to enhance coverage in family dining and ready-to-eat nutrition scenarios [3]. - The B-end operates dual brands with complementary products, leveraging Mengniu Cheese's strengths in cream and butter, while Miaokelando's main B-end products include mozzarella, cheese slices, and original cheese, enhancing collaborative synergies [3]. - The C-end channel strategy is evolving from a focus on key accounts to a more diversified approach, actively expanding into growth channels such as snack retail, membership stores, and convenience stores, while strengthening partnerships with restaurants and industrial enterprises in the B-end [3]. Integration and Efficiency Enhancement - The integration of Mengniu Cheese has strengthened collaboration across the entire value chain, from upstream procurement to downstream sales, enhancing operational management and brand effects [3]. - The company is advancing refined and precise management operations, with expectations of further improvements in net profit margins through enhanced sales and management efficiency [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is enhancing its C-end channel diversification and B-end channel synergy after integrating Mengniu Cheese, aiming to enrich its product matrix and strengthen ambient products, which, along with optimized management and improved cost efficiency, is expected to drive a performance turnaround [1]. Investment Highlights - The company is initiating coverage with a "cautious buy" rating, focusing on product innovation and matrix enrichment, accelerating C-end channel diversification, and increasing B-end expansion post-Mengniu integration. Improved management precision is anticipated to significantly enhance net profit margins. EPS is projected to be 0.43, 0.63, and 0.84 yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 94.4%, 45.4%, and 34.6% respectively. Given the expected improvement in net profit margins and substantial growth potential compared to peers, a valuation of 3.1X P/S for 2025 is suggested, corresponding to a fair value of 31.92 yuan per share [2]. Product and Channel Innovation - The company is focusing on its core cheese business, continuously enriching and optimizing its product matrix. C-end cheese sticks are expanding from low-temperature to ambient products, with new product forms being introduced. The B-end operates dual brands with complementary products, leveraging Mengniu's strengths in cream and butter, while the main brand excels in mozzarella, cheese slices, and original cheese. The C-end is diversifying from key accounts to include growth channels like snack wholesale, membership stores, and convenience stores, while the B-end is expanding collaborations with food service and industrial companies. Following Mengniu's acquisition in 2021, the number of retail terminal outlets increased from 600,000 in 2021 to approximately 800,000 in 2022, with further expansion expected [3]. Synergy and Efficiency Enhancement - After integrating Mengniu Cheese, the company is strengthening synergy and mutual empowerment across the entire value chain, from upstream procurement to downstream sales and management. The company is actively promoting refined and precise management operations, with expectations of a noticeable improvement in net profit margins through enhanced sales and management efficiency [3].

Group 1: Dairy Industry Insights - The domestic dairy industry is transitioning from liquid to solid products, with significant growth potential as per capita cheese consumption remains low [1] - The demand for high-quality protein and dairy fat is increasing, driven by health policies and weight management needs, reinforcing cheese's role as a natural nutritional carrier [1] - The penetration of cheese in B-end markets such as Western cuisine, tea, coffee, and baking is rising, which is expected to enhance C-end consumer awareness and demand for cheese [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Angel Yeast plans to invest approximately 502.25 million yuan in a new bio-manufacturing center, which will include a seven-story building and various advanced equipment [2] - Vitasoy International reported a 1% increase in revenue to 6.274 billion HKD for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, with a gross profit of 3.218 billion HKD, up 3% [3] - China Wangwang's total revenue for the fiscal year 2024 was 23.5107 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 0.3%, but a profit attributable to equity holders increased by 8.6% to 4.3356 billion yuan [5] Group 3: Market Activities - Anji Food's H-share public offering began on June 25, 2025, with a maximum issue price of 66 HKD per share, and the listing is expected on July 4, 2025 [4] - Tims China reported a 3.5% increase in system sales to 376.3 million yuan in Q1, with a total of 1,024 stores nationwide [7] - Starbucks China is evaluating the best ways to seize future growth opportunities while focusing on revitalizing its business in China [7]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The domestic dairy industry is transitioning from liquid to solid products, with current per capita cheese consumption remaining low, indicating significant growth potential [1] - The "Healthy China" policy and weight management needs are driving demand for high-quality protein and dairy fat, further enhancing cheese's role as a natural nutritional carrier [1] - The penetration rate of cheese in Western cuisine, tea and coffee, and baking is continuously increasing, with chain brands frequently using products like mozzarella, cheese sauce, mascarpone, and butter, which is educating consumers and boosting demand [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The synergy between B-end (business) and C-end (consumer) demand is expected to create a phenomenon-level product, propelling solid dairy products towards a trillion-level market segment [1] - The ongoing research by industry associations regarding the implementation of cheese policies in schools suggests a trend towards "high-protein dairy products in schools," which could create structural opportunities for cheese in student meals [1] Group 3: E-commerce Strategy - The company is integrating Mengniu cheese for online dual-brand layout and optimizing operations on traditional e-commerce platforms like JD, Tmall, and Pinduoduo, while also expanding into interest e-commerce platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [2] - In 2024, the company's online sales reached 378 million yuan with a gross margin of 41.56%, and the company plans to continue enhancing collaborations with major platforms [2] - During the "618" shopping festival, the company's e-commerce business performed exceptionally well, ranking first in the cheese/dairy category across all platforms, with strong sales of new products [2] Group 4: IP Cooperation - The company signed an IP rights usage service contract with its controlling shareholder, Mengniu, committing to a total of 52 million yuan in pre-tax expenses from 2025 to 2027 for diverse IP cooperation and brand marketing activities [3] - The collaboration aims to leverage marketing planning, media investment, and consulting services from the controlling shareholder to enhance brand exposure and consumer recognition [3] - The company plans to improve the efficiency of sales expenses while maintaining overall scale stability, focusing on enhancing promotional effectiveness [3]