Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of municipal investment bonds (城投债) in financing urban infrastructure projects in China, highlighting their role as a financial tool for local governments while also addressing concerns regarding hidden debts and credit risks [1][3][9]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics - Municipal investment bonds are defined as bonds issued by local government financing platforms, primarily used for urban infrastructure and public welfare projects [3]. - The issuance of municipal bonds is distinct from direct government debt, as they are issued by corporate entities, reflecting a "government core, enterprise shell" characteristic [3][4]. - In 2023, the total outstanding municipal bonds reached 13.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 28% of the credit bond market [1]. Group 2: Comparison with National Bonds - National bonds are issued by the Ministry of Finance and are backed by the central government's credit, while municipal bonds are issued by local state-owned enterprises [4][6]. - The funding purposes differ: national bonds fund major cross-regional projects, whereas municipal bonds focus on local infrastructure [4]. - The repayment sources also vary; national bonds rely on national fiscal revenue, while municipal bonds depend on project revenues and local government income, including land sales [4][6]. Group 3: Credit Ratings and Market Dynamics - Municipal bonds exhibit a wide range of credit ratings, with 45% rated AAA and 38% rated AA in 2023, indicating varying levels of market confidence in repayment capabilities [6]. - In 2023, the default rate for ordinary corporate bonds was significantly higher than that of municipal bonds, although the impact of municipal bond defaults can be more pronounced [7]. - Regulatory policies are pushing municipal bonds towards a more market-oriented approach, with a notable increase in bonds linked to projects with stable cash flows [9][10]. Group 4: Economic Impact and Risks - Municipal bonds have played a crucial role in supporting over 90% of urban rail lines and 70% of affordable housing projects in China [9]. - However, excessive reliance on municipal bonds has led to high debt ratios in some regions, with 12 cities exceeding a 200% debt ratio in 2023 [10]. - The decline in land sale revenues in 2023, down 13.2% year-on-year, poses a risk to the repayment capabilities of municipal bonds [10]. Group 5: Future Trends and Investor Considerations - The issuance of municipal bonds in Q1 2024 reached 1.8 trillion yuan, with a shift towards new investments rather than refinancing existing debts [11]. - Investors are advised to consider local fiscal strength, debt ratios, and the cash flow stability of funded projects when evaluating municipal bonds [10][11]. - The ongoing regulatory framework aims to mitigate financial risks associated with municipal bonds while ensuring their contribution to urban development [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core of the central - local fiscal relationship lies in the division and combination of powers over affairs, financial rights, and financial resources. Currently, there is a prominent mismatch between local financial rights and powers over affairs, leading to structural pressures. Future reforms may focus on cultivating local tax sources, the central government moderately taking back fiscal powers over affairs and expenditure responsibilities, and promoting fiscal system reforms below the provincial level [1][3][6] - Since the reform and opening - up, the central - local fiscal relationship has evolved from the "separate - cooking" system to the tax - sharing system, and then to the reform of powers over affairs and expenditure responsibilities [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1事权、财权、财力——财政体制三要素 - Powers over affairs determine the scope of action for governments at all levels, with the power of expenditure being the core. Financial rights mainly refer to tax rights and determine the revenue distribution among governments. Financial resources are the fiscal revenues that governments can organize and allocate, and are affected by transfer payments [1][10] - The theoretical understanding of the fiscal system has evolved. From the "two - factor" framework of "combining financial rights with powers over affairs" before the 1994 tax - sharing reform, to the requirement of "matching financial resources with powers over affairs" in 2007, and then to the principle of "aligning powers over affairs with expenditure responsibilities" after the 18th Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee [12] 3.2央地财政关系的历史沿革 3.2.1 1979 - 1993年：分灶吃饭体制 - From 1979 - 1984, the "dividing revenues and expenditures, and implementing hierarchical contracting" system was implemented, giving local governments more fiscal autonomy. From 1985 - 1987, the "dividing taxes, verifying revenues and expenditures, and implementing hierarchical contracting" system was adopted, making the fiscal distribution relationship between the central and local governments clearer. From 1988 - 1993, the "six - form fiscal contracting" system was introduced, which further enhanced local fiscal autonomy [15][16][17] 3.2.2 1994年：分税制改革 - The "separate - cooking" system enhanced local government enthusiasm but led to a significant decline in the "two ratios." In 1994, the tax - sharing reform was carried out, with the core being the classification and distribution of taxes, forming a revenue - division system of central taxes, local taxes, and shared taxes. A transfer payment system was also introduced [19][22] 3.2.3 1994—2016年：分税制后央地间税权改革 - After the tax - sharing reform, the central government adjusted the division of financial rights mainly based on tax rights. Reforms were made in income tax, export tax rebates, securities transaction stamp duty, business tax, and value - added tax [23][24] 3.2.4 2016年至今：事权和支出责任改革 - Since 2016, the reform of dividing central and local fiscal powers over affairs and expenditure responsibilities has gradually advanced. Specific plans have been issued for major sub - sectors such as healthcare, education, and science and technology [27][28] 3.3央地财政关系的现状 3.3.1 地方财权与事权不匹配 - In terms of financial rights, the central and local tax revenues are nearly evenly divided. In terms of expenditure responsibilities, local governments bear most of the fiscal expenditures. In 2024, local fiscal expenditures accounted for 86%, while local fiscal revenues accounted for 54%, indicating a prominent mismatch [29][30][34] - From the perspective of the four - account fiscal structure, local governments have a large revenue - expenditure gap in the general public budget and rely on central transfer payments. The revenues and expenditures of government - managed funds and social security funds are mainly concentrated at the local level [37] 3.3.2 结构性的压力 - Local expenditure responsibilities are excessive, and local fiscal expenditures exceed national fiscal revenues. The gap has been widening since 2016, reflecting the structural problem of over - burdened local governments [39] - The expansion of local fiscal deficits mainly relies on central transfer payments. Since 2022, central transfer payments have exceeded central fiscal revenues, and the proportion of transfer payments in central fiscal expenditures and local fiscal revenues has been increasing [43][45] 3.3.3 央地财政关系的国际比较 - Compared with G20 countries, China has a relatively high proportion of local government powers over affairs and a relatively low proportion of central government powers over affairs. In 2022, local fiscal expenditures as a percentage of GDP were 22.28%, while central fiscal expenditures as a percentage of GDP were 21.1% [48] - In sub - sectors such as public services, economic affairs, health, and social security, local governments in China bear relatively heavy expenditure responsibilities [51] 3.4转移支付——财政均衡的纽带 3.4.1 转移支付构成 - Transfer payments include general transfer payments, special transfer payments, and transfer payments for shared fiscal powers over affairs. In 2024, general transfer payments (excluding transfer payments for shared fiscal powers over affairs) accounted for 49.5%, special transfer payments accounted for 8.1%, and transfer payments for shared fiscal powers over affairs accounted for 37.4% [55][56] - General transfer payments are mainly composed of equalization transfer payments, tax rebates, and rewards for county - level basic financial resources guarantee mechanisms. Special transfer payments are mainly used for infrastructure construction, and transfer payments for shared fiscal powers over affairs are mainly used in basic public service fields [59][61][64] 3.4.2 转移支付的区域分布 - Regionally, central and western regions receive significantly more transfer payments than other regions. They also have a higher degree of dependence on transfer payments. In 2024, Sichuan received the largest amount of transfer payments, while economically developed provinces and some less - developed regions received relatively less [66][67][70] 3.5央地财政关系改革的方向 3.5.1 培育地方税源、提高地方财政收入 - The reform of shifting the consumption tax collection link backward and gradually transferring it to local governments is being promoted. The potential incremental revenue from the reform is estimated to be about 20.93 billion yuan, but in the short term, it will have a limited impact on local financial resources [72][73] 3.5.2 中央适度上移财政事权和支出责任 - The central government may moderately take back fiscal powers over affairs and expenditure responsibilities in areas such as higher education, science and technology, public health, and social security to address the mismatch between powers over affairs and financial rights [76] 3.5.3 推进省以下财政体制改革 - Future reforms may include clearly defining fiscal powers over affairs and expenditure responsibilities below the provincial level, rationalizing the revenue relationship among governments below the provincial level, and improving the transfer payment system below the provincial level [78]

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