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固定收益专题:央地财政关系的历史、现状和前景分析
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-26 06:17
证券研究报告 | 固定收益专题 gszqdatemark 2025 08 26 年 月 日 固定收益专题 央地财政关系的历史、现状和前景分析 事权、财权、财力要素划分及其组合是央地财政关系的核心。事权是管理事务的 权力,决定各级政府的行动边界,事权分配中支出权是核心;财权是各级政府为 履行公共服务职能而拥有的财政资金的筹集权与支配权,政府间财权决定各级政 府间的收益分配,财权以税权为主;财力是指各级政府可以组织和分配的财政收 入,由于转移支付的存在,上级政府的财力往往小于自身财权对应的财力,而下 级政府的财力往往会大于自身财权对应的财力。 回顾历史,改革开放以来央地财政关系持续演变,财政体制主线从"财政包干" 到分税制,再到事权和支出责任改革。1)1979-1993 年:分灶吃饭体制。1980 年财政体制上开始实行"分灶吃饭"改革,地方政府在完成中央下达的上交任务 后,自行安排剩余的财政资金,也被称为财政包干制,此后逐步完善形成了六种 包干形式。2)1994 年:分税制改革。"分灶吃饭"提升了地方政府积极性,但 也导致"两个比重"严重下滑。1994 年,我国开始实施分税制改革,核心内容 是税收分类和分配,形成 ...
江苏“十三太保”,都是“二级财政”?
Hu Xiu· 2025-07-29 06:11
这些年,在讨论中国区域经济问题时,所谓"二级财政"还是"三级财政"成为了一个显学。 从改革开放之初到上世纪九十年代中叶,中国实行的是财政包干制。简单地说,中央对各个地方有一个 财政上交的指标要求,只要地方政府交够了中央的,剩下的都是自己的。在这一体制下,地方政府尤其 是广东等发达地区政府财力较强,而中央政府财力较弱。 而分税制改革之后,中央和地方"分税",尤其是增值税、企业所得税、个人所得税等核心税种,中央和 地方直接按一定比例分成。目前,中央和地方对增值税实行"五五分成",即中央拿走50%,地方(包括 省、地、县三级)合计拿50%,所得税实行60%:40%分成,中央拿走六成,地方(省、地、县)合计 拿四成。在这种体制下,中央政府财力得到明显增强,地方政府财力相对弱化。 这样的观点并不能说它全然偏颇,但江苏全省各市都是"二级财政",的确是一个巨大的误解。 要理解江苏的财税制度,我们需要对当代中国的财税体制,有一些更宏观的基本认知。 一、中国的财政分级 在现行体制下,不含作为村民/居民自治组织的居委会、村委会,全国实体的政权机构有中央、省、地 (含副省级市、地级市、地区、盟、自治州)、县(含县、自治县、县级市、 ...
通过再分配提振消费、促进经济增长
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-05-28 14:46
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of income distribution structure in relation to consumption promotion and economic growth, suggesting that improving the redistribution mechanism can stimulate internal consumption and drive economic growth [1][2]. Economic Growth and Income Distribution - The relationship between macro income distribution structure and economic growth is a long-standing research theme, where the distribution of income among enterprises, government, and households influences consumption and investment, thereby affecting economic growth [4]. - A reasonable income structure that covers different income levels can create a diversified consumer market, promoting economic optimization and upgrading [4]. Current State of Income Distribution in China - China's household disposable income as a percentage of GDP is significantly lower than that of major economies, with 60.8% in 2022 compared to Japan (70.3%), Germany (69.5%), and the US (84.9%) [5][6]. - The proportion of disposable income has been persistently lower than the initial distribution since 2000, indicating an unreasonable redistribution mechanism [7]. Policy Recommendations - Policies should focus on increasing transfer payments to households, optimizing government spending structure, and enhancing tax reforms to stimulate consumption [3][11]. - Short-term transfer payments are essential for boosting consumption demand, especially in underdeveloped regions [9][10]. - Long-term improvements in the transfer payment system are necessary to address regional economic imbalances and enhance disposable income [12]. Consumption Structure and Government Spending - The article advocates for increasing government spending in the livelihood sector to shift economic demand towards consumption, particularly in services [16][17]. - The current fiscal expenditure structure favors construction over services, necessitating a reallocation to enhance market supply and related investments [17][18]. Tax Reforms and Pension System - Tax reforms should address structural contradictions in the economy and enhance consumer capacity, including raising the personal income tax threshold and lowering rates for middle and low-income groups [19][11]. - Increasing tax incentives for personal pension accounts can improve the overall pension replacement rate, thereby enhancing current consumption tendencies [20]. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - There is significant room for increasing government debt and deficit levels, with a current debt ratio of 65.7%, allowing for potential fiscal expansion to support consumption [22][23]. - The article suggests that issuing special government bonds can help bridge funding gaps while balancing consumption and investment needs [25][26].
盛松成:如何通过再分配提振消费、促进经济增长 | 宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-04-23 10:30
文/ 中欧国际工商学院经济学与金融学教授、中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院高级学 术顾问 盛松成 稳增长政策应重视收入分配结构与促消费、稳增长的关系。在已有研究的基础 上,分析宏观收入分配结构对经济增长的影响,并针对我国居民可支配收入占 比低、再分配调节不够合理、民生领域支出有待增加等实际情况,从增加居民 部门可支配收入、提高边际消费倾向、引导需求结构向消费倾斜等方面,提出 一系列政策建议。 2024年我国顺利实现经济社会发展预期目标,全年GDP同比增长5.0%,其中四季度增长5.4%,为年内最高增速,成绩来之不易。但也要看到,很多积极 变化只是初步的,仍须夯实经济回升向好的基础。随着外部环境不确定性加大,内需重要性将更加突出,尤其是消费将在今年经济增长中扮演更重要的角 色。从2024年底召开的中央经济工作会议看,政策着力点也将更多转向惠民生、促消费。 由于居民和政府两大部门在收入分配中的份额及其消费支出在很大程度上直接决定了一个经济体的消费发展水平,完善再分配机制,可能是激发消费内生 动力、促进经济增长的一把"钥匙"。"再分配"是指政府或公共部门通过税收、社会保障、财政转移支付等政策工具,对初次分配(往往是由市场机 ...
盛松成:如何通过再分配提振消费、促进经济增长 | 宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-04-23 10:30
文/ 中欧国际工商学院经济学与金融学教授、中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院高级学 术顾问 盛松成 稳增长政策应重视收入分配结构与促消费、稳增长的关系。在已有研究的基础 上,分析宏观收入分配结构对经济增长的影响,并针对我国居民可支配收入占 比低、再分配调节不够合理、民生领域支出有待增加等实际情况,从增加居民 部门可支配收入、提高边际消费倾向、引导需求结构向消费倾斜等方面,提出 一系列政策建议。 2024年我国顺利实现经济社会发展预期目标,全年GDP同比增长5.0%,其中四季度增长5.4%,为年内最高增速,成绩来之不易。但也要看到,很多积极 变化只是初步的,仍须夯实经济回升向好的基础。随着外部环境不确定性加大,内需重要性将更加突出,尤其是消费将在今年经济增长中扮演更重要的角 色。从2024年底召开的中央经济工作会议看,政策着力点也将更多转向惠民生、促消费。 由于居民和政府两大部门在收入分配中的份额及其消费支出在很大程度上直接决定了一个经济体的消费发展水平,完善再分配机制,可能是激发消费内生 动力、促进经济增长的一把"钥匙"。"再分配"是指政府或公共部门通过税收、社会保障、财政转移支付等政策工具,对初次分配(往往是由市场机 ...
盛松成:如何通过再分配提振消费,促进经济增长
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-04-15 03:12
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for targeted redistribution policies to boost consumption and promote economic growth, especially in the context of increasing external uncertainties [1][2] - It highlights that improving the redistribution mechanism could be key to stimulating internal consumption and economic growth, as the current income distribution structure is inadequate [1][3] - The article points out that the disposable income of residents in China is significantly lower compared to major economies like Japan, Germany, and the United States, indicating a need for better redistribution adjustments [3][4] Group 2 - The article suggests that policies should balance short-term and long-term goals, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion to enhance the social welfare system and shift economic demand towards consumption, particularly in services [2][16] - It recommends increasing transfer payments to households and optimizing government spending structures to improve efficiency and stimulate market supply and investment [2][17] - The article discusses the importance of tax reforms that align with economic structural adjustments to address constraints on high-quality economic development and guide consumption through tax policies [2][18] Group 3 - The article notes that the growth rate of urban residents' disposable income has generally lagged behind GDP growth, particularly in urban areas, indicating a need for policy intervention [4][11] - It highlights that social security spending in China is relatively low, accounting for only 3.1% of GDP, suggesting significant room for improvement in public spending on social welfare [4][20] - The article emphasizes the potential of government investment in social services to stimulate market demand and improve living standards, particularly in areas like elderly care and childcare [17][19] Group 4 - The article discusses the potential for issuing additional government bonds to finance consumption-oriented policies, indicating that there is still room for fiscal expansion [20][22] - It suggests that the government should balance funding between consumption and investment to ensure sustainable economic growth, especially in light of external uncertainties [23] - The article concludes that enhancing domestic consumption is crucial for stabilizing foreign investment and fostering high-quality development in the consumer market [23]
划水
猫笔刀· 2024-10-25 14:18
其实这个数据和经济强省不矛盾,江苏的gdp数据一直很优秀,在中国仅次于广东,但是江苏省gdp最后 转化为老百姓收入的比例确实比较低。我去网上找了一下数据,搜到一个2022年的表格,你们可以看 看,重点是最右边一栏。 昨天评论里聊到江苏有一项数据全国倒数,即居民可支配收入占gdp的比例,常年徘徊在34-35%左右, 基本都在倒数第一第二。后台很多读者留言表示非常意外,因为在他们印象中江苏一直是国内顶尖的经 济强省。 上半年有一个词很流行,叫做远洋捕捞,很多民营企业家一听就浑身哆嗦。10月8日那次国务院新 闻发布会还特地回应了这件事,"纠偏违规异地执法,杜绝企业远洋捕捞"。 | | | | 2022年各省市GDP含金量分析 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 地区 | 人口(万人) | 地区生产总值 (亿元) | 人均地区生产 总值(元) | 人均可支配收 入(元) | 人均收入占 人均GDP比重 | | 1 | 黑龙江省 | 3099 | 15901 | 51310 | 28346 | 55. 24% | | 2 | 河北省 | ...