（三）委托与代理权责界定难，"三种意识"仍需强化。我国现行的《预算法》明确中央政府负责制定地 方债务管理规则，地方政府在中央授权范围内管理、使用债务，承担具体偿债责任，央地之间在地方债 务发行、使用、管理中形成复杂的多层次委托代理关系。而由于信息不对称，蕴含其间的道德风险和逆 向选择导致地方政府"三种意识"即风险防范意识、创新发展意识和责任担当意识的弱化，为国家治理现 代化埋下隐患。 财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱。党的二十届三中全会立足全局，提出"建立权责清晰、财力协调、 区域均衡的中央和地方财政关系"的战略目标，为我国财政体制改革描绘了宏伟蓝图。党的二十届四中 全会进一步明确"加强中央事权，增强地方自主财力"的关键路径，释放出进一步优化央地财政关系，更 好调动中央和地方两个积极性的有力信号。这两次会议接续作出的重大部署，既着眼优化中央与地方政 府间的财政关系，又着力缓解地方政府财政困难，是筑牢国家治理现代化根基的必然要求，对落实中央 经济工作会议精神，促进我国经济高质量发展，实现中国式现代化意义重大。 优化央地财政关系对国家治理现代化意义重大 （一）央地财政关系是推进国家治理现代化的重要支撑。合理而稳定的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central government will increase its fiscal expenditure proportion to alleviate local fiscal pressure and promote high-quality economic development, as outlined in the recent guidelines for the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][2][4]. Group 1: Central and Local Fiscal Relations - The current fiscal structure shows a low proportion of central government expenditure, with central fiscal expenditure accounting for about 14% of the national general public budget, expected to rise to 14.5% in 2024 [4][15]. - Local governments face significant fiscal challenges, having to manage over 80% of expenditures while only receiving about half of the national general public budget revenue, leading to heavy reliance on central transfers and debt [7][12]. - The need for reform is emphasized, with calls to clarify the division of responsibilities between central and local governments, as well as to increase the central government's fiscal responsibilities [9][10][14]. Group 2: Proposed Reforms - Key reforms include enhancing local fiscal autonomy and expanding local tax sources while simultaneously increasing central government responsibilities and expenditure [2][3]. - The central government is expected to take on more responsibilities, reducing the need for extensive transfer payments to local governments, thereby alleviating local fiscal burdens [7][13]. - Experts suggest that the central government's expenditure proportion should ideally increase to 30%-40% by 2030 to improve governance efficiency and address local government challenges [12][13]. Group 3: Specific Areas for Central Responsibility - Areas such as social security, public health, and education are highlighted as suitable for central government responsibility due to their nationwide implications [12][14]. - The need for a clear delineation of shared responsibilities is stressed, particularly in sectors like social insurance, where local management has led to inconsistencies and lower standards [10][12]. - The ongoing reforms since 2016 have not yet resulted in a significant increase in central expenditure proportion, indicating the necessity for concurrent administrative reforms [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in promoting economic balance and structural optimization, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal, which aims to enhance fiscal sustainability [1][6]. Group 1: Continuation of Proactive Fiscal Policy - China has consistently implemented proactive fiscal policies to stabilize employment and prices, support domestic demand, and target key areas for economic and social development [2][3]. - The fiscal policy approach is expected to continue, focusing on expanding expenditure, optimizing spending schedules, and innovating policy tools to stimulate total demand and stabilize economic growth [3][4]. Group 2: Enhancing Efficiency of Fund Utilization - The article highlights the need to optimize the structure of fiscal spending to improve the effectiveness of fiscal policies and fund utilization [4][5]. - It suggests focusing fiscal resources on public sectors and areas with high social benefits, such as healthcare, education, and social welfare, while also expanding effective investments in emerging fields like digital economy [4][5]. Group 3: Strengthening Sustainability - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, requiring effective implementation of proactive fiscal policies amidst complex development environments [6][7]. - Experts advocate for deepening fiscal and tax system reforms to enhance fiscal sustainability, including the implementation of zero-based budgeting and optimizing the relationship between central and local finances [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core of the central - local fiscal relationship lies in the division and combination of powers over affairs, financial rights, and financial resources. Currently, there is a prominent mismatch between local financial rights and powers over affairs, leading to structural pressures. Future reforms may focus on cultivating local tax sources, the central government moderately taking back fiscal powers over affairs and expenditure responsibilities, and promoting fiscal system reforms below the provincial level [1][3][6] - Since the reform and opening - up, the central - local fiscal relationship has evolved from the "separate - cooking" system to the tax - sharing system, and then to the reform of powers over affairs and expenditure responsibilities [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1事权、财权、财力——财政体制三要素 - Powers over affairs determine the scope of action for governments at all levels, with the power of expenditure being the core. Financial rights mainly refer to tax rights and determine the revenue distribution among governments. Financial resources are the fiscal revenues that governments can organize and allocate, and are affected by transfer payments [1][10] - The theoretical understanding of the fiscal system has evolved. From the "two - factor" framework of "combining financial rights with powers over affairs" before the 1994 tax - sharing reform, to the requirement of "matching financial resources with powers over affairs" in 2007, and then to the principle of "aligning powers over affairs with expenditure responsibilities" after the 18th Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee [12] 3.2央地财政关系的历史沿革 3.2.1 1979 - 1993年：分灶吃饭体制 - From 1979 - 1984, the "dividing revenues and expenditures, and implementing hierarchical contracting" system was implemented, giving local governments more fiscal autonomy. From 1985 - 1987, the "dividing taxes, verifying revenues and expenditures, and implementing hierarchical contracting" system was adopted, making the fiscal distribution relationship between the central and local governments clearer. From 1988 - 1993, the "six - form fiscal contracting" system was introduced, which further enhanced local fiscal autonomy [15][16][17] 3.2.2 1994年：分税制改革 - The "separate - cooking" system enhanced local government enthusiasm but led to a significant decline in the "two ratios." In 1994, the tax - sharing reform was carried out, with the core being the classification and distribution of taxes, forming a revenue - division system of central taxes, local taxes, and shared taxes. A transfer payment system was also introduced [19][22] 3.2.3 1994—2016年：分税制后央地间税权改革 - After the tax - sharing reform, the central government adjusted the division of financial rights mainly based on tax rights. Reforms were made in income tax, export tax rebates, securities transaction stamp duty, business tax, and value - added tax [23][24] 3.2.4 2016年至今：事权和支出责任改革 - Since 2016, the reform of dividing central and local fiscal powers over affairs and expenditure responsibilities has gradually advanced. Specific plans have been issued for major sub - sectors such as healthcare, education, and science and technology [27][28] 3.3央地财政关系的现状 3.3.1 地方财权与事权不匹配 - In terms of financial rights, the central and local tax revenues are nearly evenly divided. In terms of expenditure responsibilities, local governments bear most of the fiscal expenditures. In 2024, local fiscal expenditures accounted for 86%, while local fiscal revenues accounted for 54%, indicating a prominent mismatch [29][30][34] - From the perspective of the four - account fiscal structure, local governments have a large revenue - expenditure gap in the general public budget and rely on central transfer payments. The revenues and expenditures of government - managed funds and social security funds are mainly concentrated at the local level [37] 3.3.2 结构性的压力 - Local expenditure responsibilities are excessive, and local fiscal expenditures exceed national fiscal revenues. The gap has been widening since 2016, reflecting the structural problem of over - burdened local governments [39] - The expansion of local fiscal deficits mainly relies on central transfer payments. Since 2022, central transfer payments have exceeded central fiscal revenues, and the proportion of transfer payments in central fiscal expenditures and local fiscal revenues has been increasing [43][45] 3.3.3 央地财政关系的国际比较 - Compared with G20 countries, China has a relatively high proportion of local government powers over affairs and a relatively low proportion of central government powers over affairs. In 2022, local fiscal expenditures as a percentage of GDP were 22.28%, while central fiscal expenditures as a percentage of GDP were 21.1% [48] - In sub - sectors such as public services, economic affairs, health, and social security, local governments in China bear relatively heavy expenditure responsibilities [51] 3.4转移支付——财政均衡的纽带 3.4.1 转移支付构成 - Transfer payments include general transfer payments, special transfer payments, and transfer payments for shared fiscal powers over affairs. In 2024, general transfer payments (excluding transfer payments for shared fiscal powers over affairs) accounted for 49.5%, special transfer payments accounted for 8.1%, and transfer payments for shared fiscal powers over affairs accounted for 37.4% [55][56] - General transfer payments are mainly composed of equalization transfer payments, tax rebates, and rewards for county - level basic financial resources guarantee mechanisms. Special transfer payments are mainly used for infrastructure construction, and transfer payments for shared fiscal powers over affairs are mainly used in basic public service fields [59][61][64] 3.4.2 转移支付的区域分布 - Regionally, central and western regions receive significantly more transfer payments than other regions. They also have a higher degree of dependence on transfer payments. In 2024, Sichuan received the largest amount of transfer payments, while economically developed provinces and some less - developed regions received relatively less [66][67][70] 3.5央地财政关系改革的方向 3.5.1 培育地方税源、提高地方财政收入 - The reform of shifting the consumption tax collection link backward and gradually transferring it to local governments is being promoted. The potential incremental revenue from the reform is estimated to be about 20.93 billion yuan, but in the short term, it will have a limited impact on local financial resources [72][73] 3.5.2 中央适度上移财政事权和支出责任 - The central government may moderately take back fiscal powers over affairs and expenditure responsibilities in areas such as higher education, science and technology, public health, and social security to address the mismatch between powers over affairs and financial rights [76] 3.5.3 推进省以下财政体制改革 - Future reforms may include clearly defining fiscal powers over affairs and expenditure responsibilities below the provincial level, rationalizing the revenue relationship among governments below the provincial level, and improving the transfer payment system below the provincial level [78]

Group 1 - The relationship between investment and consumption is interdependent, and both are essential for expanding total demand in the economy [2][3] - Government spending should focus on both investment and consumption to stimulate economic growth, with current policies showing a structural bias towards investment [2][3] - The accumulation of material capital through investment is fundamental for economic growth, while consumption contributes to human capital, which is increasingly important in an innovation-driven economy [2][4] Group 2 - The debate over whether to prioritize investment or consumption is less productive than understanding their relationship within the overall economic cycle [3] - Government spending has become an integral part of daily economic cycles, and its effectiveness is hindered by issues such as mismatched flows and uncertainty in spending responsibilities [3][6] - A shift towards a human-centered logic in economic development is necessary, focusing on meeting people's needs through both investment and consumption [4][5] Group 3 - Urban-rural dualism restricts the mobility of farmers, impacting their access to equal public services and opportunities, which highlights the need for government investment and consumption to address these social identity issues [5][6] - Promoting social equity requires addressing inequalities in starting points and opportunities, with government policies aimed at facilitating migration and urbanization [7] - The central-local fiscal relationship is crucial for effective government investment and consumption, with local government spending being a significant component of overall fiscal policy [8][9] Group 4 - Current data shows that central government spending has increased by 9%, while local government spending has only grown by 3.9%, indicating insufficient expansion at the local level [9] - To implement more effective fiscal policies, reforms in the central-local fiscal relationship are essential, particularly in increasing the share of central government spending [9]