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曾经“买不到”,如今"有钱不敢花"!中国经济40年大反转
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 10:13
Core Viewpoint - The article contrasts the economic conditions of China in the 1980s and 1990s with the current situation, highlighting a shift from inflation and scarcity to deflation and oversupply, driven by structural issues in consumption and debt [4][11]. Economic Context - In the past, China faced severe inflation due to a lack of goods, leading to a situation where consumers had money but could not find products to buy [3][6]. - Currently, China is described as the "world's factory," producing 33% of global capacity, but is now struggling with oversupply and insufficient domestic demand [6][7]. Consumption Issues - The article identifies three major challenges affecting consumption: 1. **Income Distribution Imbalance**: Consumer spending accounts for only 33% of GDP, significantly lower than in developed countries, where it starts at 50% [7]. 2. **Debt Burden**: High levels of household debt, with a leverage ratio of 62%, are constraining consumer spending, as many individuals are burdened by mortgage repayments [9]. 3. **Aging Population**: An accelerating aging demographic is leading to reduced consumption, as older individuals typically spend less and the younger population is insufficient to drive demand [9][11]. Current Economic Phenomenon - The current deflation is attributed to a lack of consumer confidence and purchasing power, rather than a desire to buy, resulting from debt, income expectations, and pessimism about the future [11]. - The transition from a situation of scarcity to one of oversupply reflects a fundamental shift in economic dynamics, with the focus now on demand-side issues rather than supply-side constraints [11].