Core Viewpoint - Labor supply elasticity measures the responsiveness of labor supply to changes in wage rates, serving as an important indicator for understanding economic changes in a country, impacting consumption, labor, and various sectors [1][2] Labor Supply Elasticity Analysis - The analysis divides labor supply elasticity into national and urban scopes, with national elasticity calculated from total labor compensation and employment numbers, while urban elasticity considers published urban working hours and estimated rural working hours [1][2] - China's national labor supply elasticity is estimated at 0.06, while urban elasticity post-urbanization is 0.2, both lower than several OECD countries (Canada 0.38, Netherlands 0.25, USA 0.28) [1][2][10] Labor Time - Labor input is defined as the product of the number of workers and labor hours, with labor compensation being the product of labor hours and average wages, highlighting the distinction between labor time and labor wages [3] - The average working hours in urban areas have been increasing due to a rising proportion of urban employment, projected to reach 42 hours per week by 2024 [4] Labor Participation - The influx of rural surplus labor into cities since 1978 has led to a significant increase in urban employment, impacting wage pricing and labor-leisure choices [5] - The study measures labor supply elasticity using employment participation rates, comparing total employment with the economically active population [5] Labor Wages - Data sources for labor wages include national labor compensation ratios and average wages for urban employment, with adjustments made for missing data prior to 2008 [6][7] - The analysis finds that nominal and real wages for urban employees have shown consistent trends, with urban average wages growing faster than national averages from 2000 to 2012, but slower thereafter [9] High Labor Supply Characteristics - China's labor supply elasticity is influenced minimally by non-labor income, primarily driven by wage increases leading to longer working hours, reflecting a low marginal propensity to consume [10] - The low labor supply elasticity is attributed to various factors, including low property income, limited labor market flexibility, and the impact of minimum wage policies [10][11]

文：任泽平团队 人口问题既十分重要，又充满争议；既事关国家兴衰，又关系每个人的幸福。 少子化、老 龄化、不婚化、阶层固化等现象带来的挑战及应对，在学术界和国家战略层面长期存在不同观 点。人口因素是长周期、慢变量，势大力沉，是典型的"灰犀牛"，人口问题日益成为世界各国 重点关注的议题。 一、中国视角：少子老龄化时代来临，人口变迁带来哪些挑战和机遇 人口周期是指人口经历老一代陆续死亡、新一代不断出生、世代更替的人口再生产过程及 其引发的经济社会变化。个体生命周期的加总成为人口周期，主要表现为生育率下滑、老龄化 加重、人力资本水平提高、人口迁移从城市化到都市圈城市群化等特征。 少子老龄化带来一系列重大而深远的影响和挑战，比如经济潜在增速下降、储蓄投资率下 降、劳动力成本上升、创新创业活力下降、资产估值中枢下行、社会负担加重等。 过去，中 国依靠庞大且年轻的人口红利和高储蓄投资率带来的高资本投入，支撑改革开放后经济的快速 增长。2010年，"民工荒"、劳动年龄人口占比见顶标志着中国刘易斯拐点出现，人口红利消 失，经济增速换挡。 当前中国人口形势严峻，具体表现为十大特征： （1）总人口14.1亿，开始持续负增长； （2 ...