来源：市场资讯 （来源：深蓝观） 王晨 | 撰文 又一 李昀 | 编辑 最近几个月，在生物制药一级市场投资人扎堆的群里，大家关于香港生物制药二级市场的话题（吐槽） 格外多。 他们曾经参与投资过或当初调研过的公司，其中多家在这两年已上市，他们的眼光自然追随这些公司在 二级市场上的涨跌，随之检验当时自己决定投资与否的眼光。 这半年，在他们眼中，一级市场的估值逻辑，在二级市场上反倒"看不懂"。 "虽然这种愤慨是出于我们行业内专业价值判断跟市场偏离的方面，但是也不希望二级市场被这种操纵 带偏，因为最终受苦的会是股民，如果二级市场带崩了，又会反向影响到我们整个行业的正面发展导 向。"上述投资人表示。 毕竟，经历过寒冬，一方面会增强对基本价值判断的信心，但更会对"泡沫"的出现，充满警惕。 踩中红利的公司们 短短两年，中国生物制药界第一次见识了什么是周期。 也不过短短3个月，更让人见识了周期从低谷到高潮有多么让人猝不及防。 在2025年1月份的JP摩根医疗健康大会上，正好是中国创新药资产被全世界看见的时刻，会场上放眼望 去，目之所及都是中国面孔。许多biotech从业者"带着绝望寻找希望"，上述投资人也去了现场，他回 忆： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, particularly for 2025, suggesting a potential for diverse investment opportunities as valuations are currently low and public fund allocations to the sector are also low [10][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a transition in the innovative drug sector from quantity to quality, highlighting the importance of differentiated products and internationalization in pipelines [10][11]. - The medical device sector is experiencing a recovery in bidding volumes, particularly in imaging equipment, and there is a notable push for home medical devices due to supportive policies [10][11]. - The CXO and life sciences services sectors are expected to see a rebound in investment and performance, with a shift towards high-profit elasticity as companies enter a return phase [10][11]. - The report identifies a significant growth opportunity in the specialty API sector, which is expected to enter a new growth cycle due to cost improvements and low valuations [10][11]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the CITIC Medical Index rose by 2.73%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.48 percentage points, ranking second among 30 primary industries [7]. - The top-performing stocks included Nanxin Pharmaceutical and Lide Man, while the worst performers included *ST Suwu and Sanofi [7]. Overall Viewpoint and Investment Themes - The pharmaceutical sector is positioned for growth, driven by macroeconomic factors and the recovery of large-scale products [10][11]. - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs, medical devices, and the CXO sector as key investment areas, with specific companies highlighted for their potential [10][11]. Innovative Drug Sector - The report indicates that the domestic innovative drug industry is entering a new wave, with a significant increase in clinical trial applications and approvals for domestic drugs [41][47]. - The revenue from innovative drugs for leading companies like BeiGene and Hengrui is projected to grow significantly, with BeiGene's innovative drug revenue reaching 269.9 billion yuan in 2024, a 74.11% increase [47]. Medical Device Sector - The report highlights the recovery of the orthopedic market post-collection, with a focus on domestic companies benefiting from increased market concentration and product diversification [76]. - The neuro-surgical high-value consumables market is also expected to see significant growth, driven by product line expansion and international sales [76]. CXO and Life Sciences Services - The report anticipates a recovery in the CXO sector, with a positive outlook for order volumes and performance as the industry transitions to a high-growth phase [10][11]. - The life sciences services sector is expected to benefit from increased demand and a shift towards high-profit models as companies stabilize their operations [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese innovative drug sector is poised to capitalize on the patent cliff faced by multinational corporations (MNCs), with a potential market space exceeding $240 billion due to the expiration of patents on 31 major drugs by 2037 [5][18] - It emphasizes that China has the largest number of innovative drug pipelines globally, particularly in cell therapy, ADCs, and bispecific antibodies, which positions it as a key player in the global market [5][32] - The report suggests that the ongoing trend of licensing out Chinese innovations to MNCs could lead to significant profit opportunities, estimating a net profit of approximately $8.2 billion from authorized projects between 2020 and 2025, translating to a potential market capitalization increase of $81.7 billion [5][46][47] Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 1.2% during the week of June 3-6, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.3 percentage points [4][48] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 8.3%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 9.9 percentage points [4][48] MNC Patent Cliff - The report identifies that 27 drugs with projected sales exceeding $4 billion in 2024 will face patent expiration by 2037, leading to a potential loss of approximately $244.3 billion for MNCs [18][19] - Specific drugs mentioned include Merck's Keytruda and Pfizer's Eliquis, which are expected to face significant sales declines post-patent expiration [19][20] Supply and Demand Dynamics - China leads globally in the number of innovative drug pipelines, particularly in cell therapy and ADCs, with 58% of these drugs currently in clinical phase I trials [32][33] - The report indicates that Chinese companies are involved in 716 research tracks, ranking first in development progress [32][33] Transaction Trends - The report highlights a significant increase in global pharmaceutical transactions, with the number of deals rising from 358 in 2015 to 743 in 2024, and total transaction value increasing from $56.9 billion to $187.4 billion [36][39] - Chinese companies accounted for 30% of global transaction value in 2024, with a total of $57.1 billion in deals [39][40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong overseas clinical progress and those with potential for significant licensing deals, including Innovent Biologics, Eddingpharm, and others [5][6] - It also recommends monitoring companies that have received approval for commercialization, such as BeiGene and Kingsoft Biopharma [5][6]