炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：潮药Bar 最近instil bio的退货笔者已经进行了比较详细的阐述，虽然在宜明昂科与instil bio关于退货的这件事情 上，根本不足以造成退货潮的恐慌，这件事情完全不需要担心形成蝴蝶效应。 不过2026年有另一件事情，或许会形成蝴蝶效应，甚至是最后会影响甚至决定创新药未来3-5年内的国 运。站在我们现在的视角去看，中国第一个引领全球创新热潮，第一个领先于发达国家数年之内做出来 的产品是什么？我想答案自然是康方的AK112，PD-1×VEGF双抗是中国创新药界第一次引领全球创新 的潮流。 AK112目前来说确实在中国市场获批上市，目前来说，在NSCLC适应症中，EGFR突变患者在EGFR TKI耐药后的治疗中做出了相对不错的结果（harmoni-A），其中PFS数据惊艳，相对于化疗组，PFS数 据为7.06个月vs 4.8个月，HR=0.46。在OS数据上，虽然不算惊艳，但至少是达到了次要终点，AK112 联合化疗组的中位生存期为16.8个月，而单纯化疗组为14.1个月，风险比为0.74（p=0.019）。在中国的 临床数据 ...

在创新药对外授权出海热潮之下，有个别药企却要收回授权。 2026年1月6日晚间，港股药企宜明昂科（01541.HK）宣布，与Axion签署协议，终止双方关于IMM2510 和IMM27M的许可与合作协议，公司收回此前授权给Axion的所有权利（包括大中华区以外的全球开发 和商业化权利）。 2024年以来，随着康方生物PD-1/VEGF双抗通过临床试验数据"头对头"展现出超过默沙东K药的潜力， 全球掀起了PD-1/VEGF双抗药物对外交易热潮。 2025年5月，三生国健及关联方共同授予辉瑞PD-1/VEGF双特异性抗体SSGJ-707在全球（不包括中国内 地）的独家开发、生产、商业化权利。三生国健及关联方拿到的首付款就达到12.5亿美元，彼时刷新国 产创新药授权出海首付款纪录。 2025年6月2日，百时美施贵宝与BioNTech共同宣布，双方将联合开发及商业化BioNTech旗下双特异性 抗体候选药物BNT327（原Biotheus的PM8002），用于多种实体瘤治疗，这笔合作潜在交易总额达到111 亿美元。而这款双抗药物最早是从中国创新药企收购而来，经过BioNTech的转手，身价也暴涨四倍以 上。 相比之下 ...

当时合作金额超过20亿美元。 在创新药对外授权出海热潮之下，有个别药企却要收回授权。 2026年1月6日晚间，港股药企宜明昂科（01541.HK）宣布，与Axion签署协议，终止双方关于IMM2510 和IMM27M的许可与合作协议，公司收回此前授权给Axion的所有权利（包括大中华区以外的全球开发 和商业化权利）。 宜明昂科与Axion的授权合作始于2024年8月，当时宜明昂科将在研管线中的两款产品IMM2510和 IMM27M的大中华区以外的开发及商业化权利授权给了Axion，这项合作金额超过20亿美元。 宜明昂科原本对外授权的两款在研产品，其中的IMM2510是一款PD-L1/VEGF双特异性抗体。 作为肿瘤免疫的核心靶点，PD-1因其广谱抗肿瘤作用及持久抗肿瘤作用奠定了在免疫治疗领域的基石 地位，但由于免疫微环境的复杂性及耐药性，PD-1仍无法完全满足临床需求。而PD-1/VEGF双抗展现 出的临床突破，能否撬动PD-1在免疫治疗中的大盘子，受到业界高度关注。 2024年以来，随着康方生物PD-1/VEGF双抗通过临床试验数据"头对头"展现出超过默沙东K药的潜力， 全球掀起了PD-1/VEGF双抗药物 ...

医药生物 2025 年 06月 09 日 从供需看,中国创新药能从海外分成多少钱? 投资要点: 行情回顾:本周(2025年6月3日-2025年6月6日)中信医药指数 A 上涨 1.2%,跑赢沪深 300指数 0.3 pct,在中信一级行业分类中排名第 16 位;2025年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 8.3%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 9.9pct,在中信行业分类中排名第5位。本周涨幅前五的个股为:易明医药 (+33.09%)、万邦德(+32.59%)、昂利康(+30.28%)、新诺威(+21.36%)、 海辰药业(+20.93%)。 周专题:跨国药企专利悬崖释放超 2400 亿美元市场空间,中国凭借技 A 术平台与研发效率优势成为全球创新药供给的核心力量。截至 2037年,全 球市场 27款 2024年销售额超 40亿美元的重磅药物面临专利失效,MNC 均有迫切寻找重磅创新药的需求。我们认为目前已经进入下一个创新药周 期的投入阶段,中国创新药在细胞疗法、ADC、双抗等技术领域在研管线 数量全球第一,在 716个赛道研发进度第一,有望依托 License-out 模式实 现技术价值全球化兑现,加速填补 MNC ...

行 业 研 究 入 华福证券 医药生物 2025 年 12 月 28 日 医药生物 2026 年为 IO 联合 ADC 大年，有哪些关键催化？ 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 行情回顾：本周（2025 年 12 月 22 日- 2025 年 12 月 26 日）中信医药指数 下跌 0.2%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.1pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 26 位； 2025 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 15.2%，跑输沪深 300 指数 3.1pct， 在中信行业分类中排名第 17 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：宏源药业（+59.4%）、 鹭燕医药（+37.3%）、华康医疗（+21.1%）、康芝药业（+20.8%）、万邦德 （+15.8%）。 告 IO+ADC：26 年催化剂密集大年，中国主导二代 IO 联合 ADC 研发。免 疫疗法与 ADC 具天然互补：PD-1 激活免疫但响应有限；ADC 直接杀伤并 释放 TAA/DAMP 诱导 ICD，促进 DC 呈递，激活 CD8+与 CD4+T 细胞， 扩大受益人群。1L 膀胱癌中，KEYNOTE-361 未见 PFS/OS 显著改善；而 Padcev（Nec ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's stock price increased by 1.59%, closing at $1,059.70 per share, leading to a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion, making it the first pharmaceutical company to achieve this milestone [1] - The surge in Eli Lilly's stock is primarily attributed to the strong sales of its weight loss drug Tirzepatide, which includes the diabetes treatment Mounjaro and the obesity treatment Zepbound [1][2] - Mounjaro's sales in Q3 reached $6.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 109%, while Zepbound generated $3.59 billion in its first month, indicating robust market demand [1] - Eli Lilly's market share among new patients in the U.S. for its products is reported to be between 70% and 75% [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, Mounjaro's sales increased by 970% year-on-year, while Zepbound's first-month sales amounted to $176 million [1] - Combined revenue from Mounjaro and Zepbound in Q3 surpassed $10 billion, positioning Eli Lilly as a leading player in the pharmaceutical market [1] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the global peak sales for Eli Lilly's three GLP-1 drugs could reach $101 billion [3] - A recent agreement with the Trump administration to lower the prices of weight loss drugs may initially reduce revenue but is expected to enhance drug accessibility for approximately 40 million Americans [3] - Eli Lilly's stock has risen nearly 40% this year, contrasting with a more than 40% decline in competitor Novo Nordisk's stock, indicating strong investor confidence in Eli Lilly's weight loss drug segment [3]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly has become the first pharmaceutical company to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion, marking a significant shift in the industry landscape traditionally dominated by tech giants [1][2] - The rise of Eli Lilly reflects a redefinition of value logic in the innovative drug sector, suggesting that the ceiling for drug company valuations is fundamentally tied to market potential rather than traditional metrics [1][3] Company Performance - Eli Lilly's journey to a $1 trillion valuation was driven by the success of its GLP-1 dual-target drug, tirzepatide, with sales of its diabetes version, Mounjaro, increasing by 970% year-over-year, and the obesity version, Zepbound, generating $176 million in its first month [3][4] - By Q3 2025, combined sales of these drugs are projected to exceed $10.1 billion, surpassing Merck's Keytruda to become the new "king of drugs" [4] - Eli Lilly's CEO reported a market share of 70% to 75% among new patients in the U.S., indicating that tirzepatide has become a dominant force in the GLP-1 market [4] Market Strategy - Despite some disappointing clinical data, Eli Lilly is expected to secure approval for the first oral small-molecule GLP-1 drug, orforglipron, which analysts believe will enhance its global market presence [5] - The company is adopting a strategy of price reduction for its obesity drugs, with expected monthly costs dropping from $350 to $245, and potentially to $149 for the oral version, aiming to increase patient access and market size [6][7] - Analysts have raised Eli Lilly's target stock price, with Citigroup projecting a target of $1,500 per share, corresponding to a market cap of $1.4 trillion, driven by the anticipated market expansion from Medicare agreements [7][8] Long-term Challenges - Eli Lilly's success is tempered by the looming challenge of patent expiration, particularly for tirzepatide, which is set to expire in 2036, raising concerns about potential market share erosion from biosimilars and generics [13][14] - The company is expected to generate $187 billion in free cash flow from its obesity drug business by 2030, providing resources for future innovations [14][15] - Eli Lilly is focusing on early-stage research investments rather than large-scale acquisitions, aiming to develop groundbreaking treatments, including a drug for early Alzheimer's disease [14][15] Future Outlook - Eli Lilly's strategy involves leveraging profits from its metabolic drugs to invest in cutting-edge areas such as gene therapy, with recent acquisitions aimed at expanding its portfolio [15] - The company's ability to maintain its $1 trillion valuation will depend on its success in developing new, competitive products beyond the GLP-1 drugs [15]

Core Insights - The emergence of dual-target weight loss drugs has created significant market dynamics, with contrasting experiences for Chinese and foreign pharmaceutical companies [2] - Eli Lilly's weight loss drug, tirzepatide, generated $16.4 billion in sales last year due to its dual action on GLP-1 and GIP hormones, effectively suppressing appetite and controlling blood sugar [2] - Chinese company Hansoh Pharmaceutical's HS-20094, also a dual-target drug, was licensed to Regeneron for an upfront payment of only $80 million, highlighting the disparity in financial returns between Chinese and Western firms [4][6] Industry Dynamics - The pharmaceutical industry operates under a "three tens" rule: 10 years of development, $1 billion investment, and a 10% success rate, though actual conditions are more complex [7] - Innovative drugs are categorized into two types: First-in-class, which are groundbreaking, and Fast Follow, which modify existing drugs without infringing patents [9][11] - First-in-class drugs tend to have higher profit potential, while Fast Follow drugs have a higher success rate and quicker market access [11][13] Market Trends - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are increasingly recognized for their innovative capabilities, with their first-in-class drugs accounting for 24% of the global pipeline, second only to the U.S. [13] - The trend of multinational companies seeking to acquire Chinese innovations is driven by the expiration of patents on their main drugs and the high costs of internal R&D [15] - China’s advantages include faster clinical trial patient recruitment and the ability to develop competitive drugs in high-tech fields [16][18] Talent and Infrastructure - The rise of the pharmaceutical outsourcing industry (CXO) has created a large pool of skilled professionals familiar with international standards [20] - The return of Chinese scientists from abroad has brought advanced technology and a global perspective, enhancing the competitive edge of local firms [22][24] Challenges and Strategies - Chinese innovative drug companies often start by developing generics to build cash flow before investing in original research [25][30] - The licensing-out model allows Chinese firms to secure upfront payments for drugs in development, which can fund further R&D [32] - Despite successes, many companies face challenges such as product shortages and financial difficulties, emphasizing the risks inherent in drug development [34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Novo Nordisk's financial performance in Q3 2025, showing a mixed result with sales growth but declines in operating and net profits [1] - Novo Nordisk's Q3 sales reached 74.976 billion Danish Krone, an 11% year-on-year increase, while operating profit fell by 21% to 23.682 billion Danish Krone, and net profit decreased by 27% to 20.006 billion Danish Krone [1] - The diabetes and weight loss drug segment generated sales of 70.26 billion Danish Krone in Q3, with Ozempic sales at 30.74 billion Danish Krone, oral GLP-1 drug Rybelsus at 5.44 billion Danish Krone, and Wegovy at 20.35 billion Danish Krone [1] Group 2 - Novo Nordisk's CEO Mike Doustdar announced aggressive strategies to streamline the organization and refocus on core diabetes and weight loss businesses [2] - The company has raised its acquisition offer for U.S. weight loss startup Metsera to $10 billion, indicating its commitment to expanding its portfolio in the weight loss drug market [2] - Metsera is recognized as one of the most promising companies in the weight loss sector, developing several experimental weight loss drugs, including an innovative drug with potentially lower injection frequency than existing products from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant licensing deal between Innovent Biologics and Takeda Pharmaceutical, valued at $11.4 billion, which includes an upfront payment of $1.2 billion and potential milestone payments of $10.2 billion. This deal is seen as a pivotal moment for the Chinese innovative drug sector, particularly in the context of the global oncology market [5][9]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The deal includes three drug candidates: IBI363, IBI343, and IBI3001, with the majority of the payment focused on IBI363 and IBI343. IBI3001 is only sold under an option agreement [7][9]. - IBI363 is a PD-1/IL-2α-bias dual antibody currently in the registration clinical development phase, targeting non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [8]. - IBI343 is an ADC targeting CLDN18.2, with ongoing clinical studies for gastric and pancreatic cancers [8]. - IBI3001 is an ADC targeting EGFR/B7H3, currently in Phase I clinical trials [8]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The unique "Co-Co" collaboration model allows Innovent to remain deeply involved in the global development of IBI363, sharing both costs and future profits with Takeda, which is a departure from traditional licensing agreements [11][12]. - This partnership is expected to enhance Innovent's capabilities in global clinical development and commercialization, aligning with its goal to become a leading global biopharmaceutical company by 2030 [13][16]. - The collaboration with Takeda, a well-established player in the oncology market, is seen as a strategic move to access the U.S. market and leverage Takeda's expertise [15][16]. Group 3: Product Potential - IBI363 is positioned as a potential cornerstone drug for next-generation cancer immunotherapy, with the ability to address PD-1 resistance and target "cold tumors" [18]. - The market potential for PD-1 resistant therapies is projected to reach billions, with IBI363 showing promising clinical data, including an objective response rate (ORR) of 36.7% in a specific dosage group [19][20]. - The drug's broad-spectrum applicability across various cancers, including colorectal and gastric cancers, further enhances its market potential [21].