1月5日，在全球市场避险情绪骤然升温的背景下，金价在亚洲时段出现快速拉升。金丰来认为，突发性 的地缘事件往往会迅速改变资金风险偏好，而黄金作为传统避险资产，往往成为资金率先配置的方向。 本轮上涨并非单一因素推动，而是多重不确定性集中释放的结果。 从价格结构看，金价在经历前期高位回落后的再度走强，显示市场对黄金的中长期信心依然稳固。金丰 来表示，2025年内金价累计大幅上涨后出现阶段性获利回吐属于正常现象，但在流动性预期宽松和避险 需求共振的环境下，黄金仍具备较强的修复能力。 事件层面，美国在委内瑞拉的军事行动明显冲击了市场风险承受能力。相关行动不仅引发国际社会关 注，也使能源供应前景面临新的不确定性。金丰来认为，能源市场与宏观通胀预期之间存在联动，一旦 不确定性放大，资金往往会通过增持黄金来对冲潜在波动。 从更宏观的角度看，黄金的支撑逻辑并未发生改变。利率下行预期、官方储备持续增加以及全球经济增 长动能不足，均构成对金价的中长期利好。金丰来表示，即便短期波动加剧，只要上述核心因素未被证 伪，黄金仍将维持偏强运行格局。 此外，其他金属品种的同步走高，也反映出整体大宗商品市场情绪偏暖。白银、铂金以及铜价的上涨， ...

深层次逻辑：从交易"弱预期"到聚焦"强现实" 市场的博弈焦点发生了关键性切换。前期价格回调，反映了市场对传统需求淡季的担忧。而今日的强势 反弹，则表明投资者的注意力重新回到了 "供应紧缺的强现实"上。在全球库存极度紧张的背景下，任 何供应端的负面消息都可能被快速定价。同时，在美元走弱和利率下行预期下，部分资金从其他资产类 别流向商品市场，寻求配置机会，锡因其鲜明的稀缺属性和科技成长标签而备受关注。 后市展望：高位震荡，在"强现实"与"弱消费"间博弈 在经历短暂回调后，据长江有色金属网获悉，长江现货锡价今日（12月17日）上演强劲反弹，长江现货 1#锡报价为324,500-326,500元/吨，均价325,500元/吨，较前一交易日上涨6750元/吨，日内涨幅约2%。 期货市场同步走强，沪锡主力合约高开高走，与国际伦锡的疲软走势形成鲜明对比。同时地缘局势方 面，刚果金局势虽有短暂缓和，但 M23 撤军仅为战术调整，冲突根源未除，锡矿供应链风险持续。此 次反弹并非技术性修正，而是宏观预期、供应危机与产业叙事三重动力共振的结果，标志着市场交易逻 辑的深刻转变。 宏观"东风"已至，美元退潮提供流动性支撑 本轮反弹最直 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) are rapidly disappearing from the market due to various factors, including narrowing bank interest margins and changing regulatory environments [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The availability of 3-year and 5-year large-denomination CDs has significantly decreased, with many banks only offering CDs with a maximum term of 2 years [1]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks in China has dropped to 1.43%, a historical low, prompting banks to reduce high-cost liabilities like large-denomination CDs [1][2]. - The expectation of declining interest rates is increasing, leading banks to withdraw long-term large-denomination CDs to avoid locking in high-interest liabilities [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Influence - Regulatory bodies are guiding banks to lower deposit costs through market-oriented mechanisms, aiming to maintain reasonable profit and net interest margin levels [2]. - Banks are encouraged to balance scale and efficiency, with many identifying the reduction of long-term deposits as a key strategy for adjusting their liability structure [2]. Group 3: Customer Adaptation - Customers are advised to shift from a single savings model to a diversified asset allocation approach to adapt to the changing market [3]. - It is essential for customers to recognize the scarcity of high-yield assets and avoid blindly pursuing high returns, which could lead to investment risks [3]. - Building an investment portfolio should consider individual circumstances, including investment experience, return expectations, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs [3].