① 03:00 美联储公布货币政策会议纪要 ② 05:30 美国至2月13日当周API原油库存 ③ 08:30 澳大利亚1月 季调后失业率 ④ 15:00 瑞士1月贸易帐 ⑤ 17:00 欧元区12月季调后经常帐 ⑥ 19:00 英国2月CBI工业订单 差值 ⑦ 21:30 美国至2月14日当周初请失业金人数 ⑧ 21:30 美国12月贸易帐 ⑨ 21:30 美国2月费城联储 制造业指数 ⑩ 22:00 美联储卡什卡利讲话 ⑪ 23:00 欧元区2月消费者信心指数初值 ⑫ 23:00 美国1月成 屋签约销售指数月率 ⑬ 23:30 美国至2月13日当周EIA 天然气库存 ⑭ 次日01:00 美国至2月13日当周EIA 原油库存 ⑮ 次日01:00 美国至2月13日当周EIA库欣原油库存 ⑯ 次日01:00 美国至2月13日当周EIA战略 石油储备库存 ...

Group 1: Retail and Consumer Activity - During the first two days before the Spring Festival, key retail and catering enterprises in China saw an average daily sales increase of 10.6% compared to the same period in 2025 [1] - Foot traffic and sales in 78 monitored pedestrian streets increased by 23.2% and 33.2% respectively on the first day of the Spring Festival compared to last year [1] - The total box office for new films during the Spring Festival has exceeded 600 million yuan, with "Flying Life 3," "Silent Awakening," and "Bears Year After Year" leading the box office rankings [1] Group 2: Transportation and Travel - The total number of people traveling during the first 15 days of the Spring Festival is expected to exceed 3.5 billion, averaging 23.4 million daily, which is a 4% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [1] - On New Year's Eve, traffic flow on major highways showed a downward trend, with overall road traffic remaining stable and orderly [1] Group 3: Energy and Infrastructure - On the first day of the Spring Festival, the total charging volume at highway charging stations reached 1.528 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 116.32% [1] - The Long Triangle region's foreign trade import and export value during the 14th Five-Year Plan period reached 77.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.5% [1] Group 4: Defense Spending - The UK Prime Minister announced plans to accelerate the goal of increasing defense spending to 3% of GDP, with a previous commitment to raise it to 2.5% by 2027 [2]

Group 1 - The total silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange is 449,653 kilograms, with a decrease of 12,970 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 22,000 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 22,300 yuan, a low of 20,600 yuan, and closed at 21,446 yuan, reflecting a decline of 16.71% [1] Group 2 - In the Shanghai warehouses, the total silver futures showed a decrease across various locations, with the largest drop occurring at Zhonggongmei Supply Chain, which fell by 5,996 kilograms [2] - The ISM manufacturing index in the US rose to 52.6 in January, significantly exceeding expectations and reaching the highest level since February 2022, driven by strong growth in new orders and production [2] - The US government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the December JOLTS job openings report and the non-farm payroll report, which are now rescheduled for later publication [2]

每经AI快讯，1月3日，墨西哥12月制造业指数为46.2，非制造业指数为49.5。 ...

Market Insights - President Trump calls for the next Federal Reserve chairman to lower interest rates decisively when the economy and markets are performing strongly, rather than tightening policy too early due to inflation concerns. He criticizes the current market logic, stating that "good news has become bad news," and emphasizes that low interest rates can boost the stock market, stimulate the economy, and alleviate housing burdens. He suggests that a thriving stock market could lead to a GDP growth of 10% to 20% in the U.S. [1][6] - The U.S. third-quarter GDP annualized growth rate is reported at 4.3%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth rate in 2023 and indicating strong economic resilience [1][6]. - The core PCE price index for the third quarter shows an annualized quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.9%, consistent with expectations and up from the second quarter's final value of 2.6%. The overall PCE price index also rises by 2.8%, indicating that inflation remains on a moderate upward trajectory [1][7]. Manufacturing Sector - U.S. durable goods orders fell by 2.2% month-on-month in October, significantly worse than the expected decline of 1.5%, with the previous value revised down from +0.5%, highlighting weakened manufacturing momentum [2][7]. - U.S. industrial production increased by 0.2% month-on-month in November, slightly above the market expectation of 0.1%, marking the second consecutive month of expansion and indicating a slow recovery in manufacturing activity [2][7]. - The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for December improved to -7, better than the expected -10 and the previous value of -15, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of regional manufacturing contraction, although it has not yet returned to expansion [2][7]. Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.16% to 48,442.41 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.46% to 6,909.79 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.57% to 23,561.84 points [3][8]. - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.09% to $4,518.20 per ounce, reaching a new intraday historical high, while COMEX silver futures rose by 4.40% to $71.585 per ounce, also setting a new historical peak [3][8]. Oil and Bond Markets - U.S. crude oil futures rose by 0.79% to $58.47 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.62% to $61.96 per barrel [4][9]. - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.18 basis points to 3.532%, the 3-year yield increased by 3.63 basis points to 3.583%, the 5-year yield rose by 2.65 basis points to 3.734%, the 10-year yield increased by 0.40 basis points to 4.165%, and the 30-year yield fell by 1.12 basis points to 4.824% [4][9].

（文章来源：新华财经） 纽约联储最新数据显示，12月制造业指数大幅下滑至-3.9，远低于预期的10.0，结束连续两个月扩张。 当前商业活动小幅收缩，出货量减弱、投入品供应趋紧。 ...

Group 1 - The long-term support level for the monthly chart is at 3230, indicating a bullish outlook for long-term investors [1] - The weekly chart shows a support level at 3900, suggesting a medium-term bullish sentiment [1] - The daily chart indicates a bearish trend with a support level at 4090, which may signal short-term selling opportunities [1] Group 2 - The monthly chart for oil indicates a resistance level at 63.40, reflecting a long-term bearish outlook [3] - The weekly chart shows a resistance level at 60.30, suggesting a medium-term bearish sentiment [3] - The daily chart indicates a resistance level at 59.30, reinforcing the bearish trend [3] Group 3 - Key economic data to watch includes Germany's Q3 GDP final value at 15:00, UK CBI retail sales at 19:00, and Alibaba's earnings call at 20:30 [5] - Additional important U.S. economic indicators include September retail sales at 21:30, PPI year-on-year and month-on-month at 21:30, and FHFA house price index at 22:00 [5] - The report also highlights the importance of the consumer confidence index and Richmond Fed manufacturing index, both scheduled for 23:00 [5]

Group 1 - The October consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is reported at 94.6, which is an improvement from the previous month's revised figure of 95.6, marking the best level since August [1][2] - The present situation index is at 129.3, significantly better than the expected 125.4, and has been upgraded from a previous reading of 127.5, also the highest since August [2] - The expectations index has decreased to 71.5 from last month's 73.4, marking the weakest level since June when it was just under 70 [2] Group 2 - The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index for October is reported at -4, which is less negative than expected, while the services index comes in at -1, the strongest read since August [2][3] - The market is observing a consistent trend with the 10-year note potentially closing between 3.95% and 4.03% for the 13th consecutive session [3]

Group 1 - The US dollar continues to rebound, with the AUD/USD exchange rate slightly declining to 0.6609, down 0.05%, indicating low trading activity ahead of significant upcoming events [1] - US Treasury yields have collectively risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.2 basis points to 4.108%, marking the first consecutive rise since early September and the largest two-day increase in a month [1] - A report from the US Labor Department showed that initial jobless claims fell by 33,000 to 231,000, significantly below economists' expectations of 240,000, reversing the previous week's surge [1] - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for September rose to 23.2, well above the expected 2.5 and the previous value of -0.3, indicating a strong recovery in factory output despite a decline in price indicators [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman will speak in the House of Representatives on Monday, and the August CPI data will be released on Wednesday, which is the last CPI data before the RBA's interest rate decision on September 30 [2] - The short-term support area for the AUD/USD exchange rate is near the lower Bollinger Band around 0.6590-95, with resistance levels at 0.69435 [2]

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 fell by 0.04% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 3.14% for the week [1] - Economic data released on the same day showed mixed results, leading to minimal changes in gold prices [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 0.5% month-over-month increase in retail sales for July, marking the second consecutive month of significant growth, with a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, surpassing the expected 3.5% [1] Group 2 - The New York Federal Reserve reported that the manufacturing index for New York State rose to 11.9 in August from 5.5 in July, significantly exceeding expectations of a decline to 0.0, indicating further expansion in manufacturing activity [1] - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for August was reported at 58.6, down from 61.7 in July and below expectations of 62 [1] Group 3 - Silver futures for September delivery fell by 0.13% to $38.02 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 1.35% for the week [2]