原油 注：以上仅为个人观点策略，仅供查阅交流，没有给予客户任何投资建议，与客户的投资无关，更不作为下单的依据。 ① 15:00 德国第三季度未季调GDP年率终值 ② 19:00 英国11月CBI零售销售差值 ③ 20:30 阿里巴巴财报电话会 ④ 21:30 美国9月零售销售月率 ⑤ 21:30 美国9月PPI年率集月率 ⑥ 22:00 美国9月FHFA房价指数月率 ⑦ 22:00 美国9月S&P/CS20座大城市未季调房价指数年率 ⑧ 23:00 美国8月商业库存月率 ⑨ 23:00 美国10月成屋签约销售指数月率 ⑩ 23:00 美国11月谘商会消费者信心指数 ⑪ 23:00 美国11月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数 ⑫ 次日05:30 美国至11月21日当周API原油库存 月线（长线多） 支撑：3230 周线（中线多） 支撑：3900 日线（波段空） 支撑：4090 四小时（短期） 关键分水岭4090-4100区域，价格没有出现反转之前依此位置看多 月线（长线空） 阻力：63.40 周线（中线空） 阻力：60.30 日线（波段空） 阻力：59.30 四小时（短期） 短线分水岭58-58.10区间，价格没有出现反 ...

Group 1 - The October consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is reported at 94.6, which is an improvement from the previous month's revised figure of 95.6, marking the best level since August [1][2] - The present situation index is at 129.3, significantly better than the expected 125.4, and has been upgraded from a previous reading of 127.5, also the highest since August [2] - The expectations index has decreased to 71.5 from last month's 73.4, marking the weakest level since June when it was just under 70 [2] Group 2 - The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index for October is reported at -4, which is less negative than expected, while the services index comes in at -1, the strongest read since August [2][3] - The market is observing a consistent trend with the 10-year note potentially closing between 3.95% and 4.03% for the 13th consecutive session [3]

Group 1 - The US dollar continues to rebound, with the AUD/USD exchange rate slightly declining to 0.6609, down 0.05%, indicating low trading activity ahead of significant upcoming events [1] - US Treasury yields have collectively risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.2 basis points to 4.108%, marking the first consecutive rise since early September and the largest two-day increase in a month [1] - A report from the US Labor Department showed that initial jobless claims fell by 33,000 to 231,000, significantly below economists' expectations of 240,000, reversing the previous week's surge [1] - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for September rose to 23.2, well above the expected 2.5 and the previous value of -0.3, indicating a strong recovery in factory output despite a decline in price indicators [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman will speak in the House of Representatives on Monday, and the August CPI data will be released on Wednesday, which is the last CPI data before the RBA's interest rate decision on September 30 [2] - The short-term support area for the AUD/USD exchange rate is near the lower Bollinger Band around 0.6590-95, with resistance levels at 0.69435 [2]

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 fell by 0.04% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 3.14% for the week [1] - Economic data released on the same day showed mixed results, leading to minimal changes in gold prices [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 0.5% month-over-month increase in retail sales for July, marking the second consecutive month of significant growth, with a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, surpassing the expected 3.5% [1] Group 2 - The New York Federal Reserve reported that the manufacturing index for New York State rose to 11.9 in August from 5.5 in July, significantly exceeding expectations of a decline to 0.0, indicating further expansion in manufacturing activity [1] - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for August was reported at 58.6, down from 61.7 in July and below expectations of 62 [1] Group 3 - Silver futures for September delivery fell by 0.13% to $38.02 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 1.35% for the week [2]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes from the July monetary policy meeting at 09:30 [1] - A press conference regarding the foreign exchange income and expenditure data for the first half of the year will be held by the State Council Information Office at 15:00 [1] - Bank of England Governor Bailey and other officials will deliver speeches at 17:15 [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a welcome address at a regulatory meeting at 20:30 [1] - The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July will be released at 22:00 [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will host a fireside chat at 01:00 the next day [1] - The last trading of NY crude oil August futures will be completed at 02:30 the next day [1] - API crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 18 will be released at 04:30 the next day [1]

Group 1 - The Summer Davos Forum is scheduled to take place [1] - NATO heads of state and government will hold a summit [1] - Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for June will be released at 16:00 [3] Group 2 - The UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations for June will be announced at 18:00 [4] - The US current account for Q1 and Canada's CPI for May will be reported at 20:30 [5] - The US FHFA House Price Index for April and the S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index for April will be released at 21:00 [6] Group 3 - ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech at 21:00 [6] - Federal Reserve's Harker will discuss monetary policy at 21:15 [7] - The US Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June will be published at 22:00 [8] Group 4 - Fed Chair Powell will present the semi-annual monetary policy report at 22:00 [8] - Bank of England Governor Bailey will attend the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee meeting at 22:00 [8] - Fed's Harker will participate in a panel discussion at 22:15 [9] Group 5 - Fed's Williams will speak the following day at 00:30 [10] - API crude oil inventory data for the week ending June 20 will be released at 04:30 [11]

Group 1 - The Summer Davos Forum is scheduled to take place, which may influence global economic discussions and investment sentiments [1] - NATO heads of state and government will hold a summit, potentially impacting defense and geopolitical investment strategies [1] - Key economic indicators will be released, including Germany's IFO Business Climate Index and the UK's CBI Industrial Orders Balance, which could affect market forecasts and sector performance [1] Group 2 - The U.S. will release its first-quarter current account data, which is crucial for understanding trade balances and foreign investment flows [1] - The U.S. will also publish the FHFA House Price Index and the S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index, providing insights into the real estate market trends [1] - The European Central Bank President Lagarde will deliver a speech, which may provide guidance on monetary policy and its implications for the Eurozone economy [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The article highlights key economic data and events to be monitored on June 20, 2025, including various consumer confidence indices and retail sales figures [1] - Key Point 2: Important announcements include speeches from Russian President Putin and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, which may influence market sentiment [1] - Key Point 3: The article lists specific times for the release of economic indicators such as the UK Gfk Consumer Confidence Index and the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The article emphasizes the significance of the Chinese one-year loan market quotation rate to be released on June 20, which could impact lending rates and economic activity [1] - Key Point 2: The German Producer Price Index (PPI) and UK retail sales figures are also highlighted as critical indicators for assessing economic health in Europe [1] - Key Point 3: The article notes the scheduled release of the Eurozone consumer confidence index, which is crucial for understanding consumer sentiment in the region [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to have a strong oscillation. The short - term uncertainty remains high, and it has high strategic allocation value in the long run [1]. - Silver is predicted to have a high - level oscillation, following the characteristics of gold and base metals [1]. - Copper is likely to continue to rebound and oscillate upward, and is still favored in the medium and long term [1]. - Zinc is expected to rebound, but overall it is still weak. There is an opportunity to short at high prices in the long run [1]. - Lead's price rebound is under pressure due to cost support and inventory accumulation [1]. - Tin's price is under pressure after a continuous rebound because of slow复产 and weak smelter start - up [1]. - Aluminum's price is under pressure with weakening overseas disturbances and emerging downstream consumption off - season characteristics [1]. - Nickel's price is weak due to rising overseas shipments and high domestic inventory [1]. - Industrial silicon's price is bearish because of increasing supply and weak downstream demand [1]. - Lithium carbonate's price is bearish due to continuous supply surplus pressure and increasing inventory [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold opened high and closed low as the short - term risk - aversion sentiment declined due to Iran's softening stance [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Iran hopes to end the hostile state, US data is weak, and the long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider making long - term preparations for gold. Control the position of silver due to its high elasticity [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper continued to rebound [4]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight, domestic production is increasing, there are concerns about overseas soft squeeze - out risks, and green copper demand offsets traditional demand shortages [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short - term long positions. Be cautious about risks. Long - term optimism about copper remains [5]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc rebounded in a V - shape and stopped falling to stabilize [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc ore supply is loosening, domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weakening [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see in the short term. Look for opportunities to short at high prices in the long term [8]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and alumina was under pressure [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost is decreasing, inventory is changing, and demand is entering the off - season. For alumina, the supply is in surplus [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [10]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were weak, and stainless steel was under pressure [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel ore supply is increasing, domestic supply is in surplus, and stainless steel inventory is rising [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased positions and declined [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply surplus pressure of lithium carbonate remains, and the inventory is expected to increase further [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [14].

Group 1 - The 39th OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries ministerial meeting is scheduled to take place, which may influence global oil supply and pricing dynamics [1] - The U.S. Vice President will deliver a speech at the "Bitcoin 2025" conference, potentially impacting cryptocurrency market sentiment [1] - The Federal Reserve's Williams will participate in a panel discussion at the Bank of Japan's financial research institute meeting, which could provide insights into U.S. monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Australia's April weighted CPI year-on-year data will be released, which is crucial for assessing inflation trends in the region [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, impacting the New Zealand dollar and economic outlook [1] - The final GDP year-on-year figure for France's first quarter will be published, providing insights into the country's economic performance [1] Group 3 - Germany's adjusted unemployment figures for May will be released, including both the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate, which are key indicators of labor market health [1] - The Swiss ZEW investor confidence index for May will be announced, reflecting investor sentiment and expectations for the Swiss economy [1] - The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index for May will be published, offering insights into the manufacturing sector's performance in the U.S. [1] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its May monetary policy meeting, which may provide clues about future interest rate decisions [1] - The API crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 23 will be released, which is significant for understanding oil supply trends in the U.S. [1]