I'm extremely the key word is scared. What gold is signaling here. Every major risk asset on the planet is underperforming gold, and gold is the most expensive versus most moving average.You can go from 100 to 200 a day, 2 to 40, 50, 60 months to 16 to 20 quarters. Then it's versus at every single major peak in its history. It's that rich, it's extended.And we all know it's the high since 1979. And what's Italian US is Italian. US number one.Gold loves President Trump. The nuances Mr. . Trump saying the shu ...

The NFP release was delayed due to the government shutdown in the US, so volatility was muted across the board, as the only important economic driver published was the US services PMI, which was slightly lower than forecasted (50 instead of 51), but still indicated a positive development. Despite the absence of official data from the US labor market, investors maintain a mildly positive sentiment as private sector indicators show rather a consolidation of hiring and new payrolls, than their growth or decl ...

Key Points The government shutdown is causing plenty of uncertainty among investors right now. The good news is that no matter what happens in the near term, the market's future is bright. That said, there's a good reason to consider avoiding the market right now. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › With the federal government shut down until further notice, many investors are wondering what this will mean for the stock market. General uncertainty can often result in market volatility ...

The Dow hit its highest levels on record even though the Institute for Supply Management's services sector survey fell unexpectedly. The Dow was up 405 points, or 0.9%, and setting fresh intraday records. The S&P 500 was up 0.3% and also hitting its highest levels on record. The Nasdaq Composite was up slightly. All three only need to close higher to set fresh closing records. The ISM's services purchasing managers index fell to a 50 reading in September from 52 in August. Economists polled by FactSet antic ...

S&P 500 at 5,700? Bitcoin at $80,000? ...

Dow Jones 30 Technical AnalysisThe Dow Jones 30 is sideways as well, really with nowhere to be, as we continue to see a lot of lackluster trading. And again, I think it’s the same situation here, we’re just basically killing time between now and the jobs number. If we do fall from here, I think the 46,000 level could be an area of support as traders will be watching it very closely.Even below there, then you have the 50 day EMA and the 45,000 level, which should be a hard floor in the market. I believe that ...

Group 1 - The small-cap stock bubble is raising alarms as they have outperformed large-cap stocks in Q3 2025, driven by a rally in technology stocks [1][2] - The Russell 2000 index has seen a gain of over 10% as of September 29, 2025, surpassing the S&P 500's approximately 7% increase [2][4] - Small-cap stocks have historically performed best during periods of Federal Reserve easing and economic recovery, but their recent performance contrasts sharply with earlier in the year [4] Group 2 - The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, has led the recent surge in small-cap stocks, with notable performers like Astera and Credo seeing gains of over 100% and 60% respectively in Q3 [5][10] - Despite the strong performance, concerns arise as the rebound is driven by a limited number of growth and tech stocks, leading to questions about overall value [11] - The forward P/E ratio for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has reached 24.64, indicating that small-cap stocks may no longer offer the value they once did [11][12] Group 3 - The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF has an alarming forward P/E ratio of 36.38, suggesting a bubble similar to large-cap tech stocks [12] - Some small-cap stocks, like Oklo, have seen significant price increases without generating any revenue, raising further concerns about valuation sustainability [12] - Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and healthcare are recommended for small-cap investments, as cyclical sectors may struggle without substantial interest rate cuts [14]

Market Overview - Global financial markets exhibit complex and divergent trends, with the US market continuing to reach new highs driven by strong performance in technology and small-cap stocks [1] - The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices show notable gains, while the Dow Jones index experiences a slight increase, supported by robust corporate earnings and positive developments in the AI sector [1][3] - In contrast, European markets show weakness, with the UK FTSE 100 index slightly up, while the German DAX and French CAC 40 indices both decline, reflecting concerns over economic growth and policy uncertainty in the region [1][3] Commodity Performance - Gold prices have significantly risen, indicating strong demand, while WTI crude oil prices are under pressure due to expectations of increased supply [1][4] - The reopening of a major pipeline in Iraq has heightened supply concerns, contributing to a decline in oil prices [4] Key Indices and Movements - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.44% to 6,693.75, while the Dow Jones rose by 0.14% to 46,381.54 [4] - The Nasdaq 100 index saw a rise of 0.55% to 22,788.98, and the Russell 2000 index increased by 0.60% to 2,463.34 [4] - European indices such as the DAX and CAC 40 experienced declines of 0.48% and 0.30%, respectively, indicating a bearish sentiment in the region [4] Investor Sentiment - Overall, investors maintain a defensive stance with limited risk appetite, as evidenced by the mixed performance across global markets [3] - The focus for upcoming trading days will be on signals from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy and key inflation data [3]

Core Insights - Financial markets have exhibited unusual behavior following the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which hinted at potential rate cuts [1] - Gold has emerged as a significant safe haven asset, experiencing a price increase of nearly 10% and closing at $3,680.70 per ounce [2] - The bond market's reaction has been unexpected, with the 30-year Treasury yield not falling immediately after Powell's speech, only declining after a weak jobs report [3] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 and commodity prices did not respond as anticipated to the prospect of rate cuts, contrasting with the expected market behavior [2] - The dollar index has remained stable, returning to pre-speech levels, which is considered counterintuitive given the expectations for Fed easing [3] - Bitcoin's volatility has led to a sell-off post-Jackson Hole, but it has also returned to its starting point, diverging from its previous behavior as a risk asset [4] Global Economic Factors - Concerns over a potential debt crisis in France and the U.K. have contributed to rising global bond yields, with political gridlock in France affecting fiscal discipline [4] - Fitch's downgrade of France's credit rating from AA- to A+ reflects the challenges in achieving fiscal discipline, potentially driving investors towards safe-haven assets like the dollar [5]

尽管市场普遍预计周四公布的美国通胀数据将再度"火热"，但华尔街的交易焦点已悄然转移。相较于单 一的通胀数据，投资者现在更关注就业市场的健康状况。 根据期权市场的定价，交易员们预计标准普尔500指数在CPI数据公布后仅会录得约0.7%的温和波动。 这一预期不仅低于过去一年CPI公布日0.9%的平均实际波幅，也低于市场为下一次就业报告所做的定 价。花旗集团美国股票交易策略主管Stuart Kaiser甚至认为，这0.7%的隐含波动率都显得偏高。 市场的这种平静预期，根植于对美联储利率路径的判断。华尔街普遍认为，美国就业数据已显现出足以 威胁经济增长的疲软迹象，这将促使美联储在9月17日的会议上降息25个基点，并在10月和12月可能采 取更多行动。目前，市场已完全消化了未来一年超过100个基点的降息预期。 尽管如此，通胀并未完全退出舞台。一份远超预期的通胀报告，虽然不太可能阻止美联储本月的降息步 伐，但可能会动摇后续降息的路径。摩根大通全球市场情报主管Andrew Tyler在给客户的报告中写道： "我们不认为这份报告会对美联储9月份的暂停降息构成可信的威胁，但一份显著鹰派的数据确实会调整 美联储对10月和12月会 ...