转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •特朗普呼吁新任美联储主席"择机降息" •意大利通过争议预算案 拟将央行黄金"国有化" •美国Q3 GDP增速创两年新高 初值达4.3%远超预期 【市场资讯】 •美国总统特朗普发文表示，希望下一任美联储主席在经济与市场表现强劲时果断降息，而非因通胀担 忧过早收紧政策。他批评当前市场逻辑扭曲——"好消息反成利空"，强调低利率有助于推高股市、刺激 经济并缓解住房负担，并称股市繁荣或可带动美国GDP年增幅达10%至20%。 •意大利参议院通过2026年预算案，其中包含一项将央行持有的2453吨黄金"归全体国民所有"的修正条 款。此举已遭欧洲央行两次警告，批评者担忧黄金储备或被用于填补财政缺口，威胁央行独立性与金融 稳定。 •美国第三季度实际GDP年化季环比初值录得4.3%，显著高于市场预期的3.3%，为2023年以来最快增 速，显示经济韧性依然强劲。 •美国第三季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值上涨2.9%，与预期一致，较第二季度终值2.6%有所回 升；整体PCE物价指数初值上涨2.8%，亦符合预期，表明通胀仍处于温和上行通道。 •受运输设备需求疲软拖累，美国10月耐用品订单环比下降2 ...

跨年行情中的传统契机 12月23日，尽管比特币在2025年第四季度遭遇了自2022年以来最严峻的挑战，但ZFX山海证券认为，华 尔街历史悠久的"圣诞老人集会（Santa Claus Rally）"效应正成为市场多头的最后一道希望。传统金融 市场的季节性走势往往能通过情绪传导，为数字资产市场注入急需的流动性与信心。 股债联动下的季节性规律 根据长期数据追踪，标准普尔500指数在每年最后五个交易日至次年年初具有极高的上涨概率。自2005 年以来，该指数在此区间的胜率高达75%，平均回报率为0.58%。ZFX山海证券表示，考虑到该指数在 过去两个圣诞周期均表现低迷，从历史统计学角度看，今年触发均值回归并开启反弹的可能性显著提 升。 随着机构资金通过ETF等渠道深度介入，数字资产与传统权益资产的相关性正不断加强。ZFX山海证券 认为，一旦美股市场的节日买盘如期而至，这种看涨情绪极大概率会外溢至加密货币领域。虽然比特币 自2011年以来的圣诞表现各异（如2016年大涨46%，而2021年下跌10%），但其7.9%的平均涨幅依然展 现了这一时期的潜在爆发力。 黄金创纪录后的连锁反应 在各类资产的横向对比中，ZFX山海证券 ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •特朗普拟明年1月敲定美联储新主席人选 •美联储理事米兰警告：暂停降息或触发衰退 •欧盟延长对俄制裁至2026年7月 强化反规避机制 •日本财相：保留对汇率异常波动"大胆干预"权 【市场资讯】 •美国总统特朗普计划于2026年1月第一周正式提名下一任美联储主席。现任主席鲍威尔的四年任期将于 2026年5月结束。特朗普此前强调，希望继任者支持"增长友好型"货币政策，以促进经济扩张。 •美国财政部长贝森特表示，通胀正稳步向美联储2%的目标靠拢，预计2026年将成为经济增长与物价稳 定同步改善的一年。他指出，随着政府精简职位、提升效率，整体经济状况将进一步优化。 •美联储理事米兰警告称，若2026年停止降息，可能增加经济陷入衰退的风险。尽管当前尚无明显下行 迹象，但他强调，失业率上升应促使政策制定者继续采取宽松立场。 •克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，在美联储连续三次降息后，未来几个月利率政策应保持稳定。她曾反 对近期降息，认为当前主要风险仍是通胀顽固，而非就业市场疲软。 •欧盟决定将对俄罗斯的全面经济制裁延长六个月，有效期至2026年7月31日，涵盖贸易、金融、能源、 技术及运输等多个关 ...

【资讯导读】 ·中国外汇市场平稳运行跨境资金流动趋稳 ·美国财长乐观展望2026年经济前景 ·纽约联储主席：暂无降息紧迫性 ·日本央行加息至30年高点释放紧缩信号 ·全球市场步入"圣诞休市周" 【市场资讯】 ·国家外汇局数据显示，11月银行结售汇顺差为157亿美元，与10月基本持平；跨境收支顺差178亿美 元，略低于9–10月平均240亿美元水平。近期证券投资项下资金流动更趋平稳，显示外汇市场运行总体 稳健。 ·美国总统特朗普签署行政令，明确要求确保美国"太空优势"：2028年前实现载人重返月球，2030年前 建成月球前哨站初步架构，并部署月面核反应堆，同时探索在太空中部署核武器的可能性。 ·美国财政部长贝森特表示，通胀正稳步向美联储2%目标靠拢，预计2026年将成为经济增长与通胀走势 同步改善之年。他指出，随着政府职位精简，整体经济状况有望进一步优化。 ·纽约联储主席威廉姆斯强调，基于最新就业与通胀数据，当前并无再次降息的紧迫需求，进一步巩固 市场对美联储短期内暂停降息的预期。 ·美联储理事哈马克表示，未来数月无需调整利率，倾向在春季前保持政策稳定。她认为中性利率可能 高于市场普遍预期，并强调当前更需关注顽 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 每当12月临近，投资者都期待华尔街策略师能提供具有操作性的交易建议。本周，花旗研究部的全球宏 观经济策略团队正是这样做的。 花旗策略师提出了一系列交易建议，并对美联储利率政策和铝产量等市场相关话题进行了预测。 在推荐的交易中，有一项是利用杠杆押注人工智能（AI）交易将继续推动纳斯达克100指数走高。该团 队建议，投资者可以买入将于2026年12月到期的该指数虚值看涨期权。 他们表示，只要资本投资继续增长，且金融系统的流动性保持充裕，投资者就有足够的时间在AI泡沫 膨胀的过程中继续乘势而上。 他们所描述的并非简单的轮动，而是在牛市进入第4年之际，市场呈现出一种看涨的普涨态势。该团队 认为，金融股的表现应优于属于防御性板块的消费必需品股，并建议超配金融股，低配消费必需品股。 "我们认为周期性股票在通胀复苏的经济环境中会有出色表现，"该团队在谈到通胀和经济增长速度双双 回升的情景时如是说。 花旗的下一个主题带来了一丝警示。威尔及其团队指出，美股和债券在中期选举年通常表现疲软。此 外，这种疲软往往出现在第3季度。当执政党继续掌权 ...

All right. So, I think this is the question we're all trying to figure out. Does this hawkish cut, the potential of it at least, what does this mean for the markets and the idea that we're not quite clear on when we're going to get that next cut, if we do at all. >> Frank, I think the market is looking for more stimulus and if we're going to get this sort of hawkish cut, that's the widely expected outcome.But if there is no sort of roadmap forward for additional cuts uh heading into January, heading into uh ...

Core Points - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.2% [1] - The Dow Jones index fell by 0.3% [1] - The Nasdaq index declined by 0.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is increasingly optimistic about the U.S. stock market's performance in 2026, with predictions for the S&P 500 index reaching as high as 8000 points, driven by the ongoing AI boom reshaping the economy and financial markets [2][3]. Group 1: Predictions and Targets - Deutsche Bank sets a target of 8000 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, anticipating a return of around 15% due to stronger capital inflows, buybacks, and sustained earnings growth [3]. - FactSet reports a 13.4% earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in Q3, with expectations of continued strong earnings and high stock valuations by 2026 [4]. - HSBC forecasts a target of 7500 points for 2026, while JPMorgan suggests that if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, the index could reach 7500 points, with an upside potential of 8000 points [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley predicts a strong year ahead, estimating the S&P 500 will close at 7800 points in 2026, labeling it a "new bull market" driven by policy support and robust earnings [5]. - Wells Fargo anticipates a double-digit market increase over the next 12 months, with a target of 7800 points by the end of 2026, driven by inflation expectations and AI advancements [6]. - JPMorgan's chief strategist notes that despite concerns over AI bubbles and valuation issues, current high P/E ratios reflect expectations for above-trend earnings growth and increased capital expenditures in AI [8]. Group 3: Economic Context - The economic landscape is characterized by a K-shaped recovery, where the stock market's performance is increasingly tied to household wealth, raising concerns about potential economic downturns [7][9]. - HSBC emphasizes that the 2026 target of 7500 points indicates a potential for double-digit gains, reminiscent of the late 1990s stock market boom, despite challenges faced by low-income consumers [9].

Domestic Focus - President Xi Jinping and President Trump had a phone call on November 24, highlighting the overall stability and improvement of China-U.S. relations since the Busan meeting, emphasizing mutual benefits and shared prosperity [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to October, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, marking three consecutive months of growth since August [1] - On November 26, six departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission, issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming for industrial upgrades driven by consumption [1] International Focus - The Bank of Korea decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% on November 27, marking the fourth time it has been held at this level since a reduction in May [2] - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, the lowest since April 2025, with previous values revised from 220,000 to 222,000 [2] - On November 24, the White House announced President Trump's signing of an executive order to launch the "Genesis Project," aimed at transforming scientific research through artificial intelligence [2] Market Overview - The A-share market experienced upward fluctuations due to recent domestic consumption policies and rising expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, with technology sectors like AI, communications, and electronics leading the gains [4] - In the bond market, despite a loosening of funds, bond yields rose, indicating a weak performance overall, with market participants adopting a cautious stance ahead of important meetings [5] - Credit bonds showed significant adjustments and weaker performance, with yields and spreads widening, particularly for lower-rated bonds [6] Future Outlook - The upcoming important domestic meetings in December are expected to maintain a positive macro policy tone, potentially boosting A-share performance if the Federal Reserve proceeds with rate cuts [8] - In the bond market, current yield levels are expected to have strong support, with a potential for a rebound, while strategies should focus on high-yield short-duration credit bonds [9] - The real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, but supportive policies are anticipated to gradually stabilize the market [9]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high of 6,920.34 in late October but subsequently fell to a low of 6,574.32, marking a drop of 346.02 (5%) [1] - The index's decline has surpassed its previous 4-week low of 6,631.44 from early October [1] Technical Analysis - The Four-Week Rule suggests covering short positions and buying long when prices exceed the highs of the previous four weeks [2] - Conversely, it advises liquidating long positions and selling short when prices fall below the lows of the previous four weeks [3] - Despite the rise of algorithm-driven trading, the Four-Week Rule remains relevant due to its focus on volatility and momentum [4] Interest Rate Outlook - Continued selling of stocks may occur if the US Federal Open Market Committee decides to hold off on another interest rate cut in December [5] - The December 30-day Fed funds futures contract indicates a rate of 3.825%, while the January contract suggests a rate of 3.764%, both within the current range of 3.75% to 4.0% [5]