Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions, important information, logic, and trading strategies of plastics (L) and polypropylene (PP) from September 19 to October 28, 2025. The market prices of L and PP fluctuate, affected by factors such as policy, production capacity, inventory, and international events. The trading strategies include holding long or short positions, trial trading, and waiting and seeing, depending on different market situations and data analysis. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: The price of L2601 contract fluctuates, and the LLDPE market price in different regions shows partial increases, decreases, or stable trends. The trading atmosphere in the market is generally cautious, with downstream procurement mainly based on demand [1][4][8]. - **PP Polypropylene**: The price of PP2601 contract also fluctuates, and the PP market price shows large - scale stability with small fluctuations. The impact of futures on the spot market is complex, and downstream procurement is relatively cautious [1][4][8]. Important Information - **Policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to achieve an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value from 2025 to 2026 [4]. - **International Events**: Events such as the US government shutdown, Trump's threat to impose new tariffs on China, and the reorganization plan of chemical companies have an impact on the market [15][18]. - **Industry Development**: Projects such as the successful commissioning of Liaoyang Petrochemical's 100,000 - ton/year nylon 66 project and the release of the group enterprise reorganization plan of Daicel and Polyplastics have implications for the industry [18][21]. Logic Analysis - **Supply - related Factors**: Factors such as changes in domestic PE and PP production capacity utilization rates, registered warehouse receipts, and net imports affect the market. For example, an increase in production capacity utilization rates may lead to an increase in supply and put pressure on prices [2][5][9]. - **Demand - related Factors**: Indicators such as the manufacturing PMI, the US manufacturing PMI, and the logistics industry prosperity index reflect the demand situation and have an impact on the market [16][26][30]. - **External Factors**: Fluctuations in international oil prices, changes in the global economic policy uncertainty index, and changes in the freight index also affect the market [13][16][42]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies include holding long or short positions, trial trading, and waiting and seeing, with specific stop - loss points set according to market conditions [2][5][9]. - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Most of the time, it is recommended to wait and see, and in some cases, hold or intervene in positions with corresponding stop - loss settings [2][5][9]. - **Options**: Generally, it is recommended to wait and see, and in some cases, sell options with stop - loss settings [2][5][9].

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for August recorded at 49.4%, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points, remaining below the expansion line for five consecutive months [13] - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion for 32 months [13] - The overall economic environment is characterized by rising raw material prices, improved production expectations, and increased downstream procurement demand, supporting the recovery of the manufacturing PMI [21] Industry Overview Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Index both declined, while the DXI Index increased by 1.67% to 89861.27 points [23] - The price of DDR5 DRAM memory increased by 1.05% to $6.05, while the NAND Index decreased by 0.08% [26] - In July, North American PCB shipments and order volumes turned positive, with shipments up 20.70% year-on-year [28] Midstream Manufacturing - The photovoltaic price index increased, with prices for battery cells, modules, and silicon wafers all rising [22] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput showed a year-on-year increase, indicating improved logistics activity [22] Consumer Demand - The average retail sales for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines turned positive year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [22] - Movie ticket prices increased, while box office revenues showed a decline, reflecting mixed trends in the entertainment sector [22] Resource Products - The price of Brent crude oil rose by 3.01%, while most industrial metal prices declined, with copper and cobalt prices increasing [22] - The national cement price index decreased, indicating a slowdown in construction activity [22] Financial Real Estate - The land transaction premium rate increased, and the area of commodity housing transactions rose, suggesting a slight recovery in the real estate market [22] - The A-share turnover rate and daily trading volume increased, reflecting heightened market activity [22] Public Utilities - Domestic natural gas ex-factory prices decreased, while UK natural gas futures prices also fell [22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite positive domestic macro - policies, market sentiment remains cautious in the short - term due to upcoming Sino - US negotiations. Low domestic inventory limits the decline of copper prices, but the overall situation is one of weak supply and demand expectations. Short - term copper prices are expected to show a volatile trend, pending the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply and Demand - Domestic spot TC stabilizes at a low level of - 43. Japanese smelters are having difficult negotiations with Antofagasta on processing fees and cannot accept the extremely low conditions reached by Chinese smelters and Antofagasta. Domestic enterprise operating rates are declining, and the spot market is sluggish due to high prices. Last week, the copper rod operating rate was 69.4%, a 4.9% week - on - week decrease, and the copper cable enterprise operating rate was 70.83%, a 2.0% week - on - week decrease. Copper price increases suppress purchasing sentiment, and orders decrease in the off - season. Enterprises mainly rely on previous long - term orders to maintain operations, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly this week [4] 2. Inventory - Domestic inventory is being depleted. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is 11.4 tons, a 20.3% week - on - week decrease [4] 3. Macro - environment - On July 25, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in July rebounded to 49.8%, rising for two consecutive months, and the production index reached 51.7%. The National Development and Reform Commission issued the third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to local areas last week to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones. The US plan to impose tariffs on copper is approaching on August 1, and market trading is cautious. US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that China and the US will hold a new round of trade negotiations in Stockholm, Sweden, on Monday and Tuesday [4] 4. Market Trends - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, it continued the upward trend driven by the macro news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the previous Friday, and declined slightly in the second half of the week. The closing price on Friday was 79,250 yuan/ton, about 1% higher than the previous week [6]