明年若权益市场仍是上涨的，券商的业绩有望维持正增长，现在更关注的是长期来看，ROE怎么提升。 当前自营里面固收占比过高，未来收益空间或缩窄，对于券商来讲，对标海外，应该加大非方向业务的 占比，包括做市和衍生品、财富管理等，25年以来一些公司也在出海业务占比上有所提升，这些都是明 年的可能方向，而头部的券商更有望跑出收益。当前"慢牛"驱动不同于以往的"快牛"，在金融高质量发 展的框架下，优质的头部公司在业务扩表、提杠杆等方向都更有优势。 截至2025年12月24日 13:35，国证证券龙头指数(399437)上涨0.92%，成分股东吴证券(601555)上涨 2.48%，华泰证券(601688)上涨2.46%，天风证券(601162)上涨1.68%，兴业证券(601377)上涨1.37%，东 方财富(300059)上涨1.13%。证券ETF龙头(159993)上涨1.00%，最新价报1.32元，盘中净申购2700万 份。 券商板块持续拉升，机构指出，历史上券商PB和ROE的正相关性很强，因为重资产业务占比提升，所 以PB的波动和中枢也在往下走，当前接近8%的ROE水平，券商的PB相当于折价20%，但考虑到监管重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is experiencing a decline in stock performance, with the leading brokerage ETF (512000) down by 1.5% on the first trading day of November, despite strong fundamentals and capital support in the sector [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The leading brokerage ETF (512000) has seen a trading volume exceeding 700 million CNY within half a day, indicating active trading despite the price drop [1]. - The overall brokerage sector, represented by the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index, reported a total net profit of 182.55 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 61.87%, with 14 firms achieving over 100% profit growth [1][6]. Group 2: Key Brokerage Firms - Major brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, China Galaxy, and GF Securities reported net profits exceeding 10 billion CNY in the third quarter, with CITIC Securities achieving a record high quarterly profit of 9.44 billion CNY [3][4]. - The performance of various brokerages shows significant year-on-year growth in both operating income and net profit, with some firms like Guolian Securities and Huaxi Securities reporting over 200% and 300% growth, respectively [4]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market focus on short-term trading pressures may overlook the potential of investment banking and private equity growth, which could drive future earnings for brokerages [6]. - The brokerage sector is expected to see continued support from public funds, overseas investments, and core business areas, leading to improved profitability and a potential expansion of return on equity (ROE) for leading firms [6].

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector has shown strong performance in Q3 2025, with a significant year-on-year increase in net profit, yet the sector's stock performance has lagged behind broader market indices, indicating a potential for a rebound in stock prices [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - As of October 28, 2025, 14 brokerages reported a combined net profit of approximately 46.726 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.42% [1]. - Three brokerages saw their net profits double, while eight others experienced growth rates between 50% and 100% [1]. Business Drivers - **Brokerage Business**: The average daily trading volume reached 1.6 trillion yuan, a 103.1% increase year-on-year, driving net income growth in brokerage services [2]. - **Investment Business**: Rising stock prices and bond market volatility contributed to increased income from investment activities [2]. - **Credit Business**: The average daily margin balance was 1.9 trillion yuan, up 29.9% year-on-year, supporting growth in credit business income [2]. Market Performance Discrepancy - Despite strong earnings, the brokerage sector index (399975.SZ) had a year-to-date increase of only 6.99%, significantly lower than the 19.24% and 26.92% increases of the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, respectively [2][3]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the brokerage sector is 19.94, which is at a low point compared to the past two years [2]. Historical Context and Future Expectations - Historical trends indicate that the brokerage sector has previously experienced periods of lagging performance followed by rebounds, suggesting a potential for similar patterns to emerge [3]. - Positive signals for the sector's future include a sustained active market, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing 4000 points and the total A-share market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan [3]. Policy and Innovation Support - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of direct financing and related services, which could benefit brokerages with strong capabilities in investment banking and asset securitization [3]. - Chinese brokerages are diversifying their international business and shifting towards proactive asset management, moving away from reliance on market conditions for growth [3]. Investment Opportunities - The brokerage sector is positioned as a significant investment opportunity due to its high growth potential and supportive policy environment, with the brokerage ETF (159842) offering a low management fee of 0.2% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector has shown strong performance in Q3 2025, with a significant year-on-year increase in net profit, yet the market performance remains lagging, indicating a potential for future recovery and upward movement in stock prices [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - As of October 28, 2025, 14 brokerages reported a combined net profit of approximately 46.726 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.42% [3]. - Three brokerages saw their net profit double, while eight others experienced growth rates between 50% and 100% [3]. - The average daily trading volume in the market increased to 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 103.1%, driving revenue growth in brokerage services [6]. Market Performance - Despite strong earnings, the brokerage sector index has only risen by 6.99% year-to-date, significantly underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index (19.24%) and the Wind All A index (26.92%) [5]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the brokerage sector is 19.94, which is at a low point historically, suggesting substantial room for valuation recovery [5]. Investment Opportunities - The brokerage sector is characterized by high industry prosperity, low valuations, and clear policy support, making it a significant investment opportunity [9]. - The brokerage ETF (159842) offers a low comprehensive fee rate of 0.2%, providing an efficient tool for investors to capitalize on opportunities within the brokerage sector [9]. Positive Signals - The market is witnessing multiple positive signals that support the long-term development of the brokerage sector, including active market conditions and favorable policy expectations [8][9]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of direct financing and related business areas, which could benefit brokerages with strong capabilities in investment banking and asset management [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant inflow of funds into the market, with net inflows exceeding 6.9 billion yuan and 11.5 billion yuan in recent periods [2] - The market is experiencing a mismatch between high growth and low valuation, indicating potential investment opportunities in brokerage firms [2] - The formation of a MACD golden cross signal suggests a positive trend for certain stocks, indicating potential upward momentum [4] Group 2 - The continuous growth in fund scale year-to-date is noted, reflecting strong investor interest and market confidence [2] - The focus on brokerage firms for potential rebound opportunities is emphasized, suggesting a strategic investment approach [2] - The mention of specific stock performance linked to technical indicators indicates a broader market trend that could influence investment decisions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations with the three major indices showing mixed performance, while the brokerage sector is slightly retreating amid a backdrop of active trading and improving liquidity [1][3]. Market Performance - On August 26, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3868.38 points, down 0.39%, with a trading volume of 2.68 trillion yuan, marking the 10th consecutive trading day above 2 trillion yuan [1]. - The top brokerage ETF (512000) saw a decline of 1.24% with a total trading volume of 1.528 billion yuan [1]. Brokerage Sector Analysis - Major brokerages like Dongfang Caifu and CITIC Securities experienced declines of over 1%, while some smaller firms showed gains [3]. - Huatai Securities noted that ample liquidity remains a key foundation for the current A-share market, with signs of improving domestic liquidity due to recent shifts in household deposits [3]. - CITIC JianTou Securities indicated that there are no significant negative factors affecting the internal and external fundamentals, suggesting a continuation of a mid-term slow bull market [3]. Industry Outlook - The brokerage industry is expected to benefit from increased trading activity and margin financing, presenting multiple business opportunities [3]. - The current market conditions are characterized by stronger sustainability and resilience compared to previous trends, providing a stable growth foundation for brokerage firms [3]. Investment Opportunities - The brokerage sector is viewed as a "good industry" with favorable conditions for growth, supported by regulatory clarity and potential optimization of business models [4]. - The sector is currently undervalued, with only 4 out of 43 listed brokerages surpassing their high points since September of the previous year [5]. - The brokerage ETF (512000) has seen significant inflows, totaling nearly 3.2 billion yuan over six consecutive trading days, reaching a record high fund size of 31.093 billion yuan [5]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund manager Feng Chen highlighted that the brokerage ETF still has room for growth compared to previous market highs, ranking mid-tier among all primary industries [7]. - The ETF encompasses 49 listed brokerage stocks, with a focus on top-tier firms while also considering smaller brokerages for their high growth potential [7].

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is experiencing a pullback after a bullish trend, with the leading brokerage ETF (512000) showing a decline of 1.27% in market price, indicating a potential consolidation phase for individual stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The brokerage ETF (512000) has seen a recent drop in price, with a decrease of 1.27% to 0.621, reflecting a broader trend of individual stocks like Dongfang Caifu and CITIC Securities also experiencing declines [1][2]. - Despite the recent pullback, the overall sentiment among institutions remains optimistic, suggesting that there is still room for growth in the brokerage sector [3]. Group 2: Future Projections - According to estimates, if the average daily trading volume reaches 16.5 trillion CNY and the margin financing balance hits 1.89 trillion CNY by 2025, the sector's return on equity (ROE) is expected to rebound to 7.5%, surpassing levels seen in 2017 [3]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the brokerage sector is 1.45, which is significantly lower than the 1.8 ratio observed in 2017, indicating a potential 25% upside in valuations [3]. Group 3: Fund Inflows and Investment Strategy - The brokerage ETF (512000) has recently attracted significant capital inflows, with a single-day inflow of 1.143 billion CNY, bringing the total fund size to 28.22 billion CNY [3]. - The ETF is designed to passively track the CSI All Share Securities Index, encompassing 49 listed brokerage stocks, with a focus on both leading firms and smaller brokerages, providing a balanced investment approach [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in the A-share brokerage sector, represented by the brokerage ETF (512000), indicates a consolidation phase after previous gains, with expectations for future upward momentum in the market [1][3]. Market Performance - As of August 19, the brokerage ETF (512000) saw a decline of 1.27%, with major stocks like Dongfang Caifu dropping over 1% and Citic Securities down by 0.95% [1][2]. - The brokerage sector's performance has been relatively subdued, ranking 21st among 31 industries in terms of year-to-date performance, despite a 31% increase in the sector index [4][5]. Industry Outlook - Institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for the brokerage sector, citing ongoing market sentiment and the influx of new capital as potential catalysts for growth [4]. - According to estimates, the sector's return on equity (ROE) is projected to rebound to 7.5% by 2025, surpassing 2017 levels, with a current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.45, suggesting approximately 25% upside potential in valuations [4]. Fund Performance - The brokerage ETF (512000) has reached a fund size of 28.22 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 866 million yuan, positioning it as a leading ETF in terms of scale and liquidity within the A-share market [6][7]. - The ETF passively tracks the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index, encompassing 49 listed brokerage stocks, with a significant portion of its holdings concentrated in top-tier brokerages [7].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index continues to show strong performance, reaching a new high for the year, with significant capital inflow into the brokerage sector, as evidenced by nearly 2 billion yuan net inflow into the securities ETF (512880) over the past 10 days, bringing its current scale to over 35.6 billion yuan [1] - Historically, during market rebounds, the brokerage sector has significantly outperformed the broader market, and this time, the performance of the brokerage sector is closely aligned with the overall market. As of August 11, 2025, the securities index has risen by 11.17%, compared to a 6.76% increase in the CSI 300 [1] - A-shares in the brokerage sector have shown a notable underperformance compared to H-shares, leading to speculation about the potential for A-shares to catch up in terms of performance [1] Group 2 - Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that the current price-to-book (PB) valuation of the brokerage industry remains at historical low levels, suggesting that there is still room for elasticity in the sector [2] - The accelerated capital inflow into the securities ETF (512880), which tracks the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index, positions it as the largest in its category, attracting interest from investors looking for related investment opportunities [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the market is experiencing a slow bull trend, with active trading and an average daily turnover exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan, despite brokerages underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 [1] - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for brokerages is 1.56, down from 1.69 in October 2022, indicating an 8% potential upside, with a further 13% upside to the peak of 1.76 in November 2022, suggesting a logic for a rebound in low-priced brokerages if the market continues to perform well [1] - The National Securities Leading Index (399437) has shown a 0.96% increase, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as East Money (2.28%) and Dongwu Securities (2.02%) [1] Group 2 - The political bureau has signaled a consolidation of positive trends in the capital market, with a favorable environment for funds entering the market, driven by new insurance premiums and excess household savings [2] - Despite short-term fluctuations around trade negotiations and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, systemic risks remain low, supporting the long-term logic for brokerages [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Leading Index account for 78.84%, with major players including CITIC Securities and East Money, reflecting the concentration of market performance among leading firms [2]