期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 对二甲苯：单边趋势偏强 PTA：单边趋势偏强 MEG：单边趋势偏强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 来源：CCF，同花顺 iFinD，S&P Global，国泰君安期货研究 PX：23 日尾盘石脑油价格仍然僵持，2 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 561 美元/吨 CFR 附近；PX 价格上涨，一 单 3 月现货在 921 成交，尾盘 3 月在 919/928 商谈，4 月在 925/942 商谈，3/4 在-6/0 商谈，1 月 23 日 PX 收 在 923 美元/吨 CFR，较昨日上涨 16 美元/吨。1 月 23 日市场现货商谈尚可，浮动价格 3 月在-6 附近有成交， 4 月在-3~-4 附近成交商谈。 Platts 公司于 1 月 23 日评估亚洲对二甲苯 CFR Unv1/中国和 FOB 韩国标志分别为 922.67 美元/公吨和 901.67 美元/吨，均较日上涨 16 美元/吨。 Platts 的数据显示，这些价格是自 2024 年 10 月 7 日以来的最高水平，当时评估价为每吨 928 美元。 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：趋势仍偏强 | 供应 | PX国产装置变化不大，浙石化装置降负荷，1成左右预计2-3周时间，福佳大化12月扩能30万吨，总体开工率88.9%（-0.5%）。海外装置方 面，韩国GS55万吨装置重启、台塑装置负荷提升，科威特82万吨装置检修。亚洲装置开工率80.6%（-0.4%）。 进口方面，内外价差再次打开，一季度进口单月提升至90万吨左右。PX进入累库格局。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | PTA加工费修复，本周PTA装置开工率维持在76.9%。本周逸盛新材料360万吨和英力士125万吨装置兑现检修计划，独山能源300万吨装置 1.14附近重启，其250万吨装置计划本月底前停车，能投100万吨装置计划1月20日附近重启。 | | 观点 | 节前单边趋势偏强。3-5反套，5-9正 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that silver prices have significantly increased this year due to three main factors: a persistent supply gap in the global silver market, concerns over physical supply due to U.S. tariff policies, and the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle which enhances market liquidity and risk appetite [1] - In December, silver prices accelerated due to a surge in investment demand and tight short-term inventory, with global silver ETF holdings significantly increasing since October as institutions and high-net-worth individuals purchased and hoarded physical silver [1][2] - The current market structure shows a backwardation in silver futures, indicating extreme tightness in near-term physical supply, with silver leasing rates remaining high, reflecting low willingness to lend physical silver [1][2] Group 2 - Short-term volatility in the silver market is expected to remain high due to two key factors: the traditional delivery month of December and increased demand for both near and far-month contracts, which supports futures prices and amplifies market fluctuations [2] - The potential rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index and S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index in early next year may lead to selling pressure from passive management funds, with expected impacts on silver being more pronounced than on gold due to the smaller market size [2] - In the medium term, silver prices are anchored to gold, with the overall upward trend in precious metals likely to continue amid a global rate-cutting cycle, although silver may experience greater short-term volatility compared to gold [3] Group 3 - Long-term, silver's industrial demand provides solid fundamental support for prices, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, AI computing, and 5G communications, with silver demand from the photovoltaic industry rising from approximately 20% of total demand in 2022 to about 55% currently [5] - It is suggested that traders consider silver as an enhanced allocation during gold's upward cycle, leveraging its high price elasticity and volatility for excess returns while managing positions to avoid being forced out due to short-term fluctuations [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the market is experiencing a slow bull trend, with active trading and an average daily turnover exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan, despite brokerages underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 [1] - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for brokerages is 1.56, down from 1.69 in October 2022, indicating an 8% potential upside, with a further 13% upside to the peak of 1.76 in November 2022, suggesting a logic for a rebound in low-priced brokerages if the market continues to perform well [1] - The National Securities Leading Index (399437) has shown a 0.96% increase, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as East Money (2.28%) and Dongwu Securities (2.02%) [1] Group 2 - The political bureau has signaled a consolidation of positive trends in the capital market, with a favorable environment for funds entering the market, driven by new insurance premiums and excess household savings [2] - Despite short-term fluctuations around trade negotiations and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, systemic risks remain low, supporting the long-term logic for brokerages [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Leading Index account for 78.84%, with major players including CITIC Securities and East Money, reflecting the concentration of market performance among leading firms [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up 0.16% at 3639.67 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.18% to 11157.94 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.68% to 2342.86 points [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.8255 trillion yuan, an increase of 91.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2][3] Investor Sentiment - Despite the rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, most investors experienced losses, with around 3000 stocks declining compared to just over 2000 stocks rising [3] - The significant contribution to the index's rise came from the six major banks, which added 5.70 points to the index, indicating that the overall market strength is not broad-based [3] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included banking and semiconductors, with news of potential 100% tariffs on imported chips from the U.S. prompting a focus on domestic self-sufficiency [4] - Weak sectors included insurance, pharmaceuticals, solar energy, batteries, steel, and coal, which have seen significant prior speculation and are now experiencing a downturn [4] Stock Movements - Individual stocks like Upwind New Materials saw a rise of 3.93%, closing at 91.85 yuan per share, indicating ongoing speculative trading [4] - Chinese shipbuilding and heavy industry stocks experienced volatility, with both companies involved in a merger showing mixed performance [5] Foreign Investment Trends - Morgan Stanley reported a significant net inflow of foreign capital into the Chinese stock market in July, with passive funds contributing 3.9 billion USD and active funds seeing a net outflow of 1.2 billion USD [7] - The net inflow for July reached 2.7 billion USD, more than double that of June, highlighting a strong capital-driven market trend [7] Key Takeaways - The market is currently in a phase where it is not seeing significant downward movement, suggesting potential for upward momentum if it can stabilize [6] - The focus on bank stocks and the impact of foreign investment indicate a market driven by specific sectors rather than a broad-based rally [7]

Core Insights - The trend of capital inflow into the Chinese stock market appears to be strengthening, with A-shares experiencing three consecutive days of gains after a mid-week adjustment [1][3] - Morgan Stanley reported that foreign funds accelerated their net inflow into the Chinese stock market in July, with passive funds contributing $3.9 billion and active funds experiencing an outflow of $1.2 billion [3] - The financing balance in the A-share market reached 1.986 trillion yuan as of August 5, marking an increase of 8.706 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and is at levels not seen since July 10 years ago [1][3] Capital Inflow - Foreign capital net inflow in July reached $2.7 billion, significantly higher than June's $1.2 billion, indicating a robust interest from international investors [3] - The financing balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in leverage funds entering the market [3][6] Market Sentiment - There has been a marked increase in retail investor interest, with nearly 2 million new A-share accounts opened in July, a 71% year-on-year increase [4] - The Baidu search index for stocks surged from 1,709 on August 3 to 14,868 on August 4, indicating heightened public interest in the stock market [4] Market Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the current market rally is primarily driven by capital, with risk premiums for major indices falling below historical averages [6][7] - Historical patterns indicate that periods of low risk premiums often do not support sustained market rallies, as seen in previous years [7] External Factors - External geopolitical factors, such as ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Russia, may influence market sentiment and capital flows [8] - Potential market volatility from secondary tariffs could present buying opportunities for investors [8]