证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250922 新一轮稳增长政策可能有哪些？ 2025 年 09 月 22 日 2025-09-21 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《如何看待股债收益相关性？——多 资产系列报告（一）》 《基数走高下商品消费和地产销售同 比增速或继续承压》 2025-09-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 1、当前经济形势：稳投资、稳消费压力加大，新一轮稳增长政策"箭 在弦上"。第一，投资惯性强、增速回升难度较大，2000 年以来，只有 3 年年底固投累计增速相比 8 月有所回升，分别是 2012、2018、2020 年，除了 2020 年特殊，12 和 18 年回升幅度在 0.4 和 0.6 个点。而今年 前 8 个月固投累计增速为 0.5%，促进投资回升，需要财政货币政策协 同发力。第二，四季度消费压力可能加大。尽管 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to August 2025, general public budget revenue totaled CNY 14.82 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[2] - General public budget expenditure for the same period reached CNY 17.93 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[2] - In August 2025, general public budget revenue was CNY 1.24 trillion, up 2.0% year-on-year, while expenditure was CNY 1.86 trillion, reflecting a 0.8% increase[4] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue continues to outperform non-tax revenue, with August tax revenue growing by 3.4% year-on-year, marking five consecutive months of positive growth[5] - Manufacturing accounted for over 30% of total tax revenue, with a growth rate exceeding 5% in the first eight months of 2025[5] - Securities transaction stamp duty surged by 226% in August, driven by increased market activity, contributing significantly to tax revenue growth[8] Fiscal Pressure and Challenges - The fiscal data for August indicates mounting pressure, with weakened consumption impacting tax revenue and a declining real estate sector exacerbating fiscal income challenges[23] - Government fund revenue fell by 5.7% year-on-year in August, primarily due to a 5.8% drop in land transfer income[18] - Infrastructure spending remains weak, with related expenditures showing a significant decline of 13.2% when combined[13] Future Outlook and Policy Implications - The necessity for incremental policy measures is rising due to anticipated economic pressures and the nearing end of government bond issuance in the fourth quarter[23] - The potential for early utilization of next year's debt quota and the timing of policy financial tools will be critical in supporting economic stability[23]