Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant volatility, with contrasting trends between international and domestic prices, highlighting underlying economic concerns and supply-demand dynamics [2][4][5]. Group 1: International Market Dynamics - LME copper price increased slightly by $5, reaching $9,771 per ton, which is seen as inadequate given global economic recovery expectations [2]. - The strong performance of the US dollar and rising PPI in the US have negatively impacted copper prices, leading to investor hesitation [7]. Group 2: Domestic Market Trends - Domestic copper prices in Guangdong have sharply declined, with 1 copper closing at 79,010 yuan per ton, a drop of 380 yuan in a single day [2][4]. - The Jiangsu market also faced a decline, with 1 copper price falling to 79,300 yuan per ton, down 300 yuan [4]. - The price difference between Guangdong and Jiangsu has widened to 290 yuan, indicating regional market disparities influenced by logistics and demand [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Weak demand from the construction and real estate sectors is a major factor contributing to the overall weakness in copper prices [7]. - Increased inventory of imported copper materials in Guangdong has reached 32,000 tons, leading buyers to push for lower prices [9]. - The market is witnessing a shift in product dynamics, with copper pipe prices remaining stable at around 41,100 yuan per ton, while lower-priced alternatives are gaining market share [9]. Group 4: Futures Market Insights - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper contracts also saw declines, with the main contract dropping by 140 yuan per ton to 78,980 yuan [7]. - Investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic data and industry trends, remaining cautious in their trading strategies [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PG futures prices have been oscillating downward. Although the chemical demand outlook is relatively strong, the decline in oil prices and the weakening of international LPG prices have led to a weaker futures market. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4486. The basis has strengthened to 433 (+93). The inter - month reverse arbitrage has strengthened due to weak spot prices and the shift of the main contract. The number of registered warrants is 8804 lots (+500), with 500 lots added by Qingdao Yunda. The external market prices have continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. [1] - Despite the strong chemical demand expectations, under the suppression of weak combustion demand, the domestic LPG market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillating trend. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data Summary - On July 18, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG were 4530, 4486, and 4610 respectively. The propane CFR South China was 553, propane CIF Japan was 505, MB propane spot was 71, and CP forecast contract price was 538. The price of Shandong ether - after carbon four was 4890, and Shandong alkylated oil was 8000. The daily changes were - 40, 0, 20, - 2, - 2, 1, - 8, 40, 80 respectively. The PG futures price decreased, the monthly spread declined, and the 08 - 09 spread was 63. The US - Far East arbitrage window opened. [1] Weekly View Summary - **Market Trend**: The PG futures market oscillated downward. The domestic LPG market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation due to weak combustion demand, despite strong chemical demand expectations. [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened to 433 (+93), and the inter - month reverse arbitrage strengthened. The number of registered warrants increased to 8804 lots (+500). [1] - **External Market**: The external market prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The regional spreads such as PG - CP, FEI - MB, FEI - CP, and FEI - MOPJ changed, and the US - Asia arbitrage window opened. [1] - **Profit Situation**: The PDH profit improved, while the MTBE export profit declined. [1] - **Inventory and Supply**: Port inventories increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly. The commodity volume decreased by 0.98% due to reduced supply in South China, increased self - use in Shandong, and limited supply in East China. [1] - **Chemical Demand**: Chemical demand is strong. The PDH operating rate increased significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct), and the alkylation operating rate increased. MTBE export orders increased. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Report's Core View - In the short - term, with the expectation of increased supply, the expected increase in chemical demand provides some support. It is expected that Shandong will be boosted, while East and South China markets will be more volatile. Geopolitical factors have significantly escalated, which is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side, and cautious operation is recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Basis Information - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4630. The PG futures price has increased, with the 07 - 09 spread decreasing by 6 to 97. The US to Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1] - Civil gas prices first rose and then fell. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4657. The PG futures price has strengthened significantly unilaterally due to geopolitical shocks. The 07 contract basis has weakened to 80 (-141), and the spreads have weakened significantly, with 07 - 08 at 10 and 07 - 09 at 195 [1] Price Changes - From June 1 to June 20, 2025, the daily changes in prices include: South China LPG -10, East China LPG 7, Shandong LPG 80, Shandong ether - post - carbon - four 1, Shandong alkylated oil -5, etc. [1] Market Conditions - The CFR prices of propane in South China and East China are basically flat. The outer - market prices have continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio has increased [1] - In terms of regional spreads, the internal - external spread has strengthened, FEI - MB has strengthened slightly, FEI - CP and MB - CP have weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. The AFEI propane FOB discount has weakened slightly to 2.25, and the CP CIF discount has dropped significantly to 12 US dollars. Freight has increased slightly [1] Downstream Profits - The PDH spot profit has improved due to the increase in drawing prices. The profit of producing PP with FEI has decreased, while the profit of producing with CP has increased. The profits of alkylation and MTBE have decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread has shifted downward [1] Fundamental Information - Due to delayed arrivals and a slight increase in chemical demand, port inventories and storage capacity ratios have decreased, while factory inventories have remained basically flat, and external sales have remained basically unchanged [1] - Chemical demand has support, with the operating rates of PDH and MTBE increasing, and the alkylation rate remaining basically flat. Subsequently, many PDH plants are expected to increase their loads, driving up the PDH operating rate [1] Warehouse Receipt Information - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 8358 lots (-647), mainly due to a decrease of 270 at Jinneng Chemical and 377 at Shanghai Yuchi [1]