Group 1 - The majority of consumers in the medical beauty market spend between 10,000 to 50,000 yuan annually, indicating a diverse range of services from basic skincare to moderately complex cosmetic procedures [1] - First-tier cities dominate the medical beauty consumption market, accounting for approximately 69% of total spending, driven by concentrated medical resources and advanced consumer capabilities [3] - The average age of consumers in the medical beauty sector is around 35 years, with over 72% of high-end consumers aged 30 and above, reflecting a mature and stable consumption mindset [5][7] Group 2 - There is a notable increase in male consumers seeking medical beauty services, with 43% planning to increase their spending in this area, highlighting a shift in self-image management among men [7][8] - The demand for outbound medical beauty services is rising, particularly in Japan and South Korea, with about 31% of middle to high-income consumers planning to seek these services abroad in 2024 [10]

Core Viewpoint - Perfect Medical Holdings (01830.HK) experienced a significant stock price drop of 18.7% on June 18, resulting in a market capitalization of HKD 23.49 billion, following a profit warning indicating a projected net profit decline of up to 35% for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of HKD 205 million to HKD 210 million for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, down from HKD 316 million in the previous year, representing a potential decline of approximately 35% [1][2]. - The primary business operations of Perfect Medical are concentrated in Hong Kong, with over 80% of revenue generated from this region as of September 2024 [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Competition - The decline in performance is attributed to the sluggish Hong Kong economy and low consumer sentiment, leading to reduced spending on non-essential services like medical aesthetics [2]. - Increasing competition from Shenzhen and South Korea is impacting Perfect Medical, as local consumers are seeking more cost-effective options, with a notable shift towards these regions for medical aesthetic services [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - In response to the challenging market conditions, the company is launching high-value Korean medical aesthetic services and enhancing customer loyalty programs to stimulate consumption and improve customer experience [2][3]. - Perfect Medical has signed an exclusive partnership with the Korean medical aesthetic brand Oracle to introduce Korean medical techniques in Hong Kong, while also exploring potential acquisitions of promising medical aesthetic clinics in Shenzhen to capitalize on cross-border consumption opportunities [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][9]. Core Views - The company's overall performance in Q1 2025 faced pressure, with revenue of 664 million yuan, down 17.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 444 million yuan, down 15.87% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to the overall pressure on the aesthetic medicine terminal market, but future overseas acquisitions are expected to open new growth opportunities [1][5]. - The company announced plans to acquire 59.5% of Korean REGEN Biotech to strengthen its regenerative aesthetic product layout and leverage the acquisition to expand international market sales [1][5]. - The gross profit margin slightly decreased to 93.85%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by changes in product structure. R&D investment intensity has increased, with R&D expense ratio at 8.82%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][7]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth from 2,869.35 million yuan in 2023 to 4,377.70 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.74% [3]. - Net profit is projected to grow from 1,858.48 million yuan in 2023 to 2,802.90 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 15.34% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 8.59 yuan in 2023 to 9.28 yuan in 2027 [3]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2,123 million yuan, 2,430 million yuan, and 2,803 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24.6, 21.5, and 18.6 [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.03 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.96 billion yuan, also up by 5.3% [5][8]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a decline in revenue to 650 million yuan, down 7.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 370 million yuan, down 15.5% year-on-year [5][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 38 yuan for every 10 shares to all shareholders [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue from solution products and gel products for 2024 was 1.74 billion yuan and 1.22 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.4% and 5.0% [6]. - The sales volume for solution products was 634.6 thousand units, up 23.4%, while gel products saw a decline in sales volume by 11.2% to 89.4 thousand units [6]. - The overall gross margin for the company decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 94.6%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 64.7% [6][8]. R&D and Product Development - The company increased its R&D investment, completing 57 patent applications and engaging in 21 research projects with various medical institutions [7]. - New products are expected to enhance the gel product line, including a medical gel for chin augmentation and other injectable products that have received clinical trial approvals [7][8]. M&A and Market Expansion - The company plans to acquire AestheFill's source company, REGEN Biotech, Inc., which is expected to enhance its competitive advantage in the global regenerative market and strengthen its overseas market expansion capabilities [8]. - The report anticipates that the combination of mergers and acquisitions along with overseas expansion will provide new growth points for the company [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 3.213 billion yuan and 3.837 billion yuan, reflecting downward revisions of 15% and 17% respectively [8]. - The expected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 2.062 billion yuan and 2.448 billion yuan, also down by 15% for both years [8]. - The report introduces a new revenue and net profit forecast for 2027 at 4.425 billion yuan and 2.814 billion yuan, respectively [8].