行 业 研 究 华福证券 "小确幸"消费趋势解读—新消费专题 投资要点： 什么是新消费？——小确幸消费趋势 行 业 定 期 报 告 量价角度的思考：1）量：细分群体扩散，消费行为学习→新消费 不依赖经济增长β，有独立消费趋势，不依赖总量需求增长，而是小 部分群体的消费行为扩散。2）价：新消费不一定具备性价比但有情绪 价值，毛利率相对高，受主力消费人口消费习惯的代际变化影响，从 省吃俭用配置重资产变为高频"小确幸"型消费。 文旅：长白山暑期 7 月客流数据实现高增，持续关注下半年"海 南封关"主题。 2025 年 7 月，长白山主景区共接待游客 81.02 万人次，同比增长 37.8%，为历年 7 月份单月接待游客数量之最，也突破历年来单月接待 游客数量之最，创单月历史新高，长白山避暑游+盗墓笔记周年庆概念 有望带动三季度业绩高兑现。同时建议关注海南封关相关信息对于海 南离岛免税板块的催化。近期官宣 2025 年 12 月 18 日海南自贸港将正 式启动封关运作，封关后预计总计 85 个国家的人员可免签入境海南， 海南离岛免税整体用户基数大幅增长，有望加强业绩兑现能力。 潮玩：近期政策聚焦消费刺激和行业规范，短 ...

新氧 20250822 摘要 轻医美行业正经历从依赖高价项目和知名医生向标准化、高性价比服务 的转变，新氧专注于皮肤科领域，布局小型门店，以适应消费者对产品 成分和价格透明度的需求。 医美上游产品市场竞争加剧，国内三类证发放数量激增，预计到 2026 年，更多公司将推出替代产品，打破少数高价产品的垄断，市场将走向 规模化。 传统医美机构营销成本高企，利润率受限。新氧通过控制营销成本、优 化供应链和自有产品，旨在提高利润空间，并探索医生自营小型诊所模 式。 轻医美行业连锁化率有望提升，但需提供标准化治疗和高性价比服务。 新氧通过降低成本，实现硬折扣模式，以保持利润空间并提供高性价比 服务。 连锁诊所经营效率受规模、密度和效率三个维度影响。新氧采取兼顾广 度与深度的策略，在重点城市进行高密度布局，以凸显连锁优势，提升 整体平效。 Q&A 国内医美市场在过去几年发展迅速，但产业链结构上仍偏向卖方市场，连锁化 率较低。新氧如何看待医美连锁业务发展的难点和痛点？公司将如何发挥优势 解决这些问题并实现增长？ 中国医美行业从商业化开始至今已有约 30 年的历史。早期的医美主要集中在 整形手术，核心诉求是改变外貌，这类项目具 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lepu Medical is attempting to diversify into the aesthetic medicine sector with its "Tongyan Needle," aiming to create a second growth curve in consumer healthcare, but faces significant challenges in a highly competitive market [1][2]. Industry Challenges - The aesthetic medicine market is crowded, with established products like "Ruhbai Angel" and "Girl Needle" already dominating consumer and physician preferences, making it difficult for new entrants like Lepu Medical to gain market share [2]. - The industry is shifting from a focus on first-mover advantage to intense competition in channels and services, requiring new entrants to invest significantly to compete [2]. - Price pressures are mounting as the market approaches a price war, with the potential for Lepu Medical's profit margins to drop below the critical 80% threshold if it cannot adapt to the high commission structures typical in aesthetic channels [2]. Strategic Transition Challenges - Lepu Medical's core competencies lie in cardiovascular device development and hospital channel management, which differ significantly from the consumer-driven nature of aesthetic medicine that relies on marketing creativity and direct consumer engagement [3]. - The company is experiencing financial strain, with declining revenues and profits over the past two years, leading to a strategic shift that reallocates resources from its core business to aesthetic medicine, which poses risks if the new product does not meet market expectations [3][4]. - The company's aesthetic strategy appears unfocused, with previous acquisitions and product approvals not yielding expected results, highlighting a lack of clear strategic alignment compared to competitors who have deepened their market presence [4]. Conclusion - Lepu Medical's foray into aesthetic medicine reflects broader anxieties within traditional medical device companies under pressure from centralized procurement. While consumer healthcare offers a potential refuge, long-term success will depend on the company's ability to convert its technological advantages into differentiated products, leverage hospital resources for credibility, and maintain strategic patience amidst performance pressures [5].

Summary of Huadong Medicine Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huadong Medicine - **Industry**: Pharmaceutical Key Points Clinical Development and Product Pipeline - Huadong Medicine's oral GLP-1 small molecule drug has completed Phase I and II clinical trials with good safety profiles, and Phase III enrollment is expected to complete in July, potentially becoming one of the first products to market [2][11] - The three-target GLP-1 injection for hyperlipidemia and fatty liver has shown positive Phase II clinical data, significantly reducing liver fat content compared to the placebo group, and performing well in lipid reduction and insulin resistance [2][12] - The company has over 80 innovative products in its pipeline, focusing on endocrinology, autoimmune diseases, and oncology, with products like Sumituximab and Linaclotide being launched [2][10] Business Growth Expectations - Huadong Medicine anticipates a revenue growth rate of nearly 15% in 2025, driven by stable double-digit growth in traditional industrial segments and contributions from innovative products and medical aesthetics [4][5] - The industrial microbiology business is expected to maintain a growth rate of 30%-40% in 2025-2026, with profit margins improving [2][6] - The medical aesthetics market is projected to grow at double digits domestically, with new products like "Girl's Needle" and "Manli Hyaluronic Acid" expected to be approved by the end of this year or early next year [2][6] Financial Projections and Market Potential - The target market capitalization for Huadong Medicine could see a 50% increase based on current business valuations, with a potential 25%-30% increase from self-developed products alone [7] - The company expects to generate over 1 billion CNY in revenue from innovative products in 2025, potentially reaching over 3.5 billion CNY by 2027 [4][20] ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) Developments - Huadong Medicine has made significant progress in its self-developed ADC platform, with RO-1 ADC entering Phase I clinical trials and expected to complete by Q3 2025 [2][14] - The company has received clinical approvals in both China and the US for various ADC products, showcasing its research capabilities [14][16] Market Challenges and Strategies - The industrial segment is facing challenges due to centralized procurement, with a projected revenue drop of over 50% for certain products, but innovative products are expected to offset these losses [4][20] - The commercial segment is expected to maintain stable growth of 5%-10%, contributing approximately 4 billion CNY in profit by 2025 [24] Future Development Potential - Huadong Medicine is well-positioned for breakthroughs in multiple areas, including oral GLP-1 small molecules, three-target injections, and ADCs, with a strong focus on endocrinology and cardiovascular diseases [15][19] - The company is actively developing products in the autoimmune field, with significant market potential for drugs like Ustinumab and Linaclotide [18] Conclusion - Huadong Medicine's robust pipeline, innovative product development, and strategic market positioning suggest a strong potential for growth and market leadership in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in the endocrinology and oncology sectors [15][19]

Summary of the Medical Aesthetics Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese medical aesthetics market has a penetration rate of only about 4%, significantly lower than South Korea's 20%, indicating substantial growth potential [2][4] - The market is still in its early stages, with a lack of standardization and a mix of formal and informal institutions [2][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The rise of "light medical aesthetics" is seen as a future direction due to its lower entry barriers and ease of replication, with service frequency increasing from 30% to 70% post-pandemic, and an expected market size of 140 billion RMB [1][4] - New Oxygen's pre-discount model may disrupt traditional institutions, which face high customer acquisition costs and intense price competition [1][4] - New Oxygen has optimized its single-store model, increasing traditional store profit margins from less than 5% to 15% by reducing customer acquisition costs and adopting a light medical aesthetics small store model [1][6][9] Company Strategies - New Oxygen is implementing a simulated chain model that minimizes reliance on doctor IP, establishing a centralized platform for marketing, product development, and supply chain management [9] - The company plans to increase its store count to over 50 by the end of the year and is opening up franchising opportunities to rapidly replicate its light asset model [9] - New Oxygen has invested over 1 billion RMB in upstream supply chain integration, with plans to launch more proprietary products [10] Market Dynamics - The medical aesthetics industry is shifting towards a volume-based model, focusing on bulk sales and affordability through standardized operations and quality service to enhance customer retention [3][11] - The average customer acquisition cost in the industry is around 2000 RMB, with traditional institutions facing high operational costs due to a lack of standardization and high marketing expenses [5][6] Competitive Landscape - Four Ring Pharmaceutical is expected to contribute new revenue streams with products like the "Youthful Needle" and "Girl Needle," targeting a sales goal of 1 billion RMB for its botulinum toxin product [3][13] - Kedi has launched a finasteride spray, anticipating peak sales of at least 1 billion RMB, enhancing its competitive position in the hair loss market [14] - Huadong Pharmaceutical has introduced high-end hyaluronic acid products, with expectations of significant sales growth [15] Future Outlook - The light medical aesthetics market in China is projected to accommodate over a thousand stores, with potential revenues of 40 billion RMB and profits of 6 billion RMB if the market penetrates effectively [12] - The overall sentiment in the medical aesthetics sector is improving, with increased attention and potential for further developments in the third quarter of 2025 [19]

Core Viewpoint - The global ESG investment is accelerating towards mainstream adoption, with investors recognizing that companies with strong ESG performance tend to have better innovation capabilities and long-term resilience, leading to more stable and sustainable investment returns [1] Group 1: Medical Aesthetics Business Growth - The medical aesthetics business of the company is experiencing explosive growth, with projected revenue of 744 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.4% [3] - The growth is supported by continuous investment in product innovation compliance and channel deepening [3] Group 2: Product Innovation and Quality - The company has developed a product matrix for medical aesthetics, including self-developed injectable products that have received regulatory approval, focusing on quality stability, clinical efficacy, and safety [4] - The company is expanding its product line with potential new products expected to be approved in the next 1 to 3 years, including collagen and water light needles [4] Group 3: Channel Expansion and Internationalization - The company has established a dual-track model of "direct sales + agency," covering over 370 cities and collaborating with more than 6,200 medical aesthetic institutions [6] - The company is accelerating its international expansion, with successful registrations of some products in Indonesia and Malaysia, and plans to enter markets in Brazil and the Middle East [6] Group 4: Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - The company is recognized for its deep engagement in innovative drugs and biopharmaceuticals, focusing on improving drug accessibility and addressing unmet clinical needs [7] - The company has multiple innovative drugs approved for various therapeutic areas, including oncology and diabetes, with significant market potential [12] Group 5: Financial Outlook and Growth Strategy - The company aims to achieve approximately 2.3 billion yuan in revenue by 2025, with a goal of turning overall operating profit positive [13] - With a cash reserve of nearly 4 billion yuan, the company is well-positioned to support the commercialization of its new products and drive further value enhancement [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the upcoming summer peak season as a catalyst for the tourism and cultural sectors, highlighting the integration of cultural tourism with IP-driven new consumption logic [2][3] - It suggests focusing on the IP + scenic area concept, particularly in regions like Jiangsu, and recommends companies such as Emei Mountain A, Changbai Mountain, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, and Haichang Ocean Park [3][21] - The report notes the stabilization of second-hand prices in the trendy toy sector, driven by the summer season, while also addressing regulatory risks and price fluctuations in the second-hand market [3][22] - In the gold and jewelry sector, the report highlights the potential for high growth in terminal store efficiency and expansion opportunities for brands targeting high-end and young consumers [4][131] - The beauty and personal care sector is identified as having structural opportunities, with a focus on product innovation and long-term growth potential [5][101] Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free and Scenic Areas - The report tracks the performance of duty-free operators and suggests focusing on city duty-free store openings to capture inbound tourist spending [14] - It highlights the summer tourism market's preparation, with a predicted peak in hotel guest flow in early August [15][21] 2. Trendy Toys - The report notes a significant year-on-year increase in online sales for the trendy toy sector, with a total of approximately 2,754 million yuan in sales from January to May 2025, reflecting a 61% growth [23] - It emphasizes the strong cultural presence of LABUBU, surpassing the popularity of Nintendo Switch2 and LOL in recent trends [3][27] 3. Gold and Jewelry - The report indicates that gold prices remain high, with retail sales in the gold and jewelry sector reaching 30 billion yuan in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.8% [128][131] - It recommends brands like Chaohongji, Laisentongling, and Laopu Gold for their growth potential in high-end markets [131] 4. Beauty and Personal Care - The report identifies significant growth opportunities in the beauty sector driven by product innovation and changing consumer habits, recommending companies like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei [5][101] - It highlights the successful listing of Ying Tong Holdings as a leading player in the fragrance distribution and brand management sector [68] 5. Medical Aesthetics - The report suggests that the medical aesthetics industry is poised for market share gains due to refined operations and the upcoming release of new products in Q3 [5][61] - It recommends focusing on companies like Jinbo Bio and Sihuan Pharmaceutical for their innovative product pipelines [5][66] 6. Employment and Human Resources - The report notes a stable employment situation with a slight decrease in urban unemployment rates, suggesting a focus on flexible employment leaders [102][105] 7. Sports and Events - The report highlights the ongoing development of outdoor sports and suggests monitoring the "Su Chao" theme for investment opportunities in related companies [111]

Core Viewpoint - The beauty and cosmetic surgery market in China is rapidly expanding, with an estimated market size of nearly 300 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. Regulatory Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has issued a guideline to standardize pricing for commonly used cosmetic surgery services, addressing the prevalent issue of price discrepancies in the booming market [2][4]. - The guideline does not alter the market-based pricing management but aims to unify project names and standardize pricing behaviors among medical institutions [4]. Pricing Structure - Medical institutions can set their own prices for cosmetic surgery services, leading to significant price variations. The new guideline categorizes established procedures under unified names and standardizes abstract pricing projects [4][6]. - The guideline allows for the inclusion of popular treatments under specific categories, such as "ultrasound treatment" and "radiofrequency treatment," to enhance clarity in pricing [6]. Customization and Innovation - The guideline reflects the diverse and personalized needs of patients, allowing for detailed categorization of common procedures, such as lip enhancement [8]. - Medical institutions are permitted to establish additional charges for new technologies and equipment, subject to local healthcare department approval [8]. New Pricing Projects - The guideline introduces new pricing projects for "reduction of scarring through cosmetic suturing" and "surgical incision beautification," encouraging medical professionals to minimize scarring from the outset [9][11]. - A new charge for "revision surgery" has been established, recognizing the increased complexity and difficulty of follow-up procedures compared to initial surgeries [12][14].

Summary of Huadong Medicine Conference Call Company Overview - Huadong Medicine is a leading enterprise in the pharmaceutical industry, with a strong channel advantage, particularly in the metabolic and autoimmune fields. The company was established in 1993 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2000. Its business encompasses pharmaceutical manufacturing, commercial operations, and medical aesthetics, with pharmaceutical manufacturing being the largest segment. In 2024, the company expects industrial revenue of approximately 14 billion yuan, commercial revenue of about 28 billion yuan, and medical aesthetics revenue of around 2 billion yuan [3][4][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Huadong Medicine's total revenue is projected to exceed 40 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by over 20%, benefiting from business transformation and the clearance of negative factors [2][4]. Innovation and Product Pipeline - The company is actively developing innovative drugs in the fields of diabetes, weight loss, autoimmune diseases, and oncology. The first domestic generic version of Liraglutide has been approved, with Semaglutide and other products expected to be approved soon. The company is also developing multi-target GLP-1 products such as HDM1,002 and HDM1,005, which are anticipated to quickly capture market share [2][6][14]. Commercial Operations - The commercial segment, primarily located in Zhejiang Province, is expected to generate over 28 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a 3% increase year-on-year. The company has restored stable profitability through innovative development and has a competitive advantage in market access and network coverage, which synergizes well with its industrial operations [2][7][23]. Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics segment has seen significant success, with the "Girl Needle" product achieving over 1 billion yuan in sales. The company also offers hyaluronic acid and energy source devices, with expectations for double-digit growth in 2025. The acquisition of UK-based Sinclair has facilitated global expansion [8][9][20]. Risks and Challenges - Key risks include potential delays in innovative product development, intensified market competition, and lower-than-expected sales of core products. These factors could impact future performance and require ongoing monitoring and strategic adjustments [10]. ADC and Oncology Developments - Huadong Medicine has made substantial innovations in the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) field, with significant products like HDM1,022 and HDM1,005 targeting advanced malignancies. The company is also collaborating with other firms to develop CAR-T therapies, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [15][16][17]. Industrial Microbiology - The industrial microbiology segment has maintained rapid growth of 30%-40% in recent years, contributing significantly to revenue. The company has over 40 years of experience in this field, with leading subsidiaries in the industry. Industrial microbiology revenue is expected to exceed 700 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase [21][22]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The current market capitalization of Huadong Medicine is over 70 billion yuan, with projected profits for 2025 estimated between 3.9 billion and 4 billion yuan, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 20 times. This valuation is considered low given the company's innovative transformation and traditional channel advantages. The company has multiple core innovation pipelines in autoimmune, endocrine, and oncology fields, which are expected to enhance market recognition through potential overseas licensing agreements [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Lepu Medical has officially entered the aesthetic medicine market with the approval of its self-developed polylactic acid facial filler, marking a significant strategic move into consumer healthcare [1][2] - The newly approved product is expected to fill a gap in the dermatology field and is seen as a milestone for the company, with anticipated positive contributions to its performance [2][3] - The company is facing declining growth in its main business, with a reported revenue of 1.736 billion yuan in Q1 2024, down 9.67% year-on-year, and a net profit of 379 million yuan, down 21.44% year-on-year, indicating a need for new growth avenues [3] Group 2 - Lepu Medical's ambitions in the aesthetic field extend beyond the facial filler, as its subsidiary has submitted an application for a botulinum toxin product, targeting a domestic market worth over 6 billion yuan [4] - The aesthetic medicine market is becoming increasingly competitive, with several existing products already in the market, including those from competitors like Aimeike and Sihuan Pharmaceutical [2][5] - The entry of major pharmaceutical companies into the aesthetic market indicates a shift towards a more robust and competitive landscape, where Lepu Medical's experience in medical device development may provide a commercial advantage [5]