2026 科技：3 月重视设备+耗材扩产链 20260226 摘要 半导体设备板块在经历前期情绪性回撤后，受益于"两存"上市节奏预 期修正、海外存储厂商明确扩产信号以及 3 月设备招标启动，具备继续 上涨的基础，中期来看，"两存"存储设备扩产预期已上修至 14 万片 到 15 万片左右。 2026 年"两存"扩产增量主要来自长存二厂、三厂及长鑫合肥、北京、 上海新厂，预计两家合计扩产至少 14 万片到 15 万片，设备订单增速接 近翻倍，设备公司有望依次经历"谈订单—下订单—收入释放"的兑现 过程。 国内先进逻辑产能存在显著供需缺口，台积电暂停为中国先进逻辑厂商 代工后，国产 AI 芯片对国内先进制程代工需求显著提升，预计 2026 年 先进逻辑总体扩产约 8 万片，增速在 50%以上。 成熟逻辑方面，28nm 应用于 SoC、IoT、汽车芯片，应用前景广阔， 且存储晶圆的逻辑外包带来新增需求，未来 3D NAND 与 DRAM 合计需 求可能在"百万片以上"，推动更大规模的 28nm 扩产需求。 成熟逻辑扩产的驱动因素是什么，存储相关逻辑外包对 28nm 产能意味着什么？ 走向更激进的动力；三是 3 月份年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment strategy in the semiconductor industry, focusing on the expansion of FAB and storage manufacturers, as well as the recovery cycle of analog chips [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - In December 2025, the SW semiconductor index rose by 4.47%, underperforming the electronic industry by 0.69 percentage points but outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.19 percentage points [3][5]. - The SW semiconductor index's PE (TTM) was 100.50x as of December 31, 2025, placing it at the 80.92 percentile since 2019 [3][17]. - The semiconductor sub-industries with the highest growth included semiconductor equipment (+9.08%), semiconductor materials (+8.49%), discrete devices (+5.56%), and analog chip design (+5.13%) [3][5]. Group 2: Fund Holdings and Investment Strategy - In Q3 2025, the proportion of semiconductor heavy holdings in active funds was 12.56%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][22]. - The top twenty heavy holdings in active funds saw the addition of Huahong Semiconductor and Yuanjie Technology, replacing OmniVision and Naxin Micro [6][26]. - The article suggests focusing on companies in the expansion phase, such as SMIC, Huahong Semiconductor, and others, as well as analog chip companies like Shengbang Technology and Jiewa Technology during the recovery phase [9][10]. Group 3: Global Semiconductor Sales and Pricing Trends - Global semiconductor sales in November 2025 reached $75.28 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.5% [7][28]. - The prices of DRAM and NAND Flash contracts continued to rise, with predictions of a 55-60% increase in DRAM contract prices in Q1 2026 [30][32]. - The article highlights that the demand for storage is driven by AI, with prices still in an upward cycle [9][30]. Group 4: Company Performance and Forecasts - The article provides forecasts for key companies, indicating that Huahong Semiconductor is expected to have a net profit of 0.90 billion yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 226 [11]. - The production capacity utilization rates for SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor were reported at 95.8% and 109.5%, respectively, indicating strong operational performance [35][37]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant recovery, with various companies expected to benefit from the ongoing expansion and demand for chips [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's capital expenditure continues to reach new highs this year, driven by strong global semiconductor expansion demand and investments in advanced packaging and testing, as well as overseas facilities [1] Group 1: Company Performance - FanTian's chairman reported that the company has over NT$90 billion in orders as of August, a historical high, benefiting from the ramp-up of advanced packaging equipment shipments in Taiwan [1] - HanTang announced a record backlog of NT$132.26 billion, with 90% of the revenue expected to be recognized within two years, indicating strong demand from both local and international clients [1] - AsiaX's cumulative backlog reached NT$208.49 billion, with 63% from the semiconductor sector, and is expected to achieve record performance this year due to strong demand in Southeast Asia [2] - YangJi Engineering maintains a high backlog of NT$37.149 billion, with operations expected to improve in the second half of the year, expanding into new sectors beyond semiconductors [2] - ShengHui has secured ten major CSP contracts, pushing its backlog to NT$47 billion, with a 50.1% year-on-year revenue increase in the first eight months of the year [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing robust expansion, leading to increased orders and capital expenditures from companies involved in advanced packaging and cleanroom supply chains [1][2] - The demand for advanced packaging solutions, particularly CoWoS, is driving significant growth for companies like FanTian and ShengHui, with expectations of continued high operational activity through 2026 [1][2]

Group 1: Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers - Companies in the semiconductor equipment sector reported smooth progress in product research and market introduction, indicating a positive outlook for future developments [1] - MicroNano's ALD (Atomic Layer Deposition) equipment has achieved industrial application in high-k materials and metal compound films, with increasing production scale [1] - New Yichang has successfully validated multiple wire bonding and testing packaging equipment, receiving market recognition and bulk orders [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Testing Equipment - YaoMai Technology is advancing in semiconductor testing equipment across three levels: silicon photonic wafer testing, IC carrier board testing, and MEMS sensor testing [2] - The silicon photonic testing equipment has been continuously delivered to overseas wafer fabs, while IC carrier board testing is in the prototype system testing phase [2] - MEMS sensor testing equipment has gained recognition from leading domestic clients, with incremental orders being secured [2] Group 3: Semiconductor Materials Manufacturers - Domestic semiconductor manufacturers are rapidly enhancing competitiveness, breaking the original global industry pattern, with expansion becoming a key focus for semiconductor materials companies [3] - ShenGong Co. plans to steadily expand production capacity for silicon components, which will drive growth in large-diameter silicon materials [3] - The company anticipates that internal demand for silicon components will actively drive growth, rather than relying solely on overseas recovery [3] Group 4: Production Expansion Plans - TianCheng Technology is expanding production capacity to meet increasing orders, planning to increase the capacity of its Jinshan plant from 30,000 tons to 40,000 tons annually [4] - A new plant in Zhuhai with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons is set to begin construction soon, targeting the South China PCB market [4] - A fully-owned subsidiary in Thailand is expected to complete a 30,000-ton plant by 2026, enhancing supply capabilities in Southeast Asia [4] Group 5: Revenue Growth Expectations - Longtu Photoresist's new products from its Zhuhai plant are expected to gradually ramp up production in the second half of the year, leading to significant year-on-year revenue growth [5] - The company aims to leverage capacity release in Zhuhai as a turning point for performance recovery through high-end process breakthroughs and customer structure upgrades [5] - Fangbang Co., as an electronic materials platform enterprise, anticipates positive performance growth with the gradual ramp-up of new products such as peelable copper and flexible copper-clad laminates [5]

Core Viewpoint - Huahai Qingsi plans to invest no more than 500 million RMB in the construction of a wafer recycling expansion project in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, with a total planned capacity of 400,000 pieces per month [1] Group 1 - The project will initially have a construction capacity of 200,000 pieces per month [1] - The expected investment for the first phase is no more than 500 million RMB [1] - The funding for the project will come from the company's own and self-raised funds, with a construction period expected to be no more than 18 months [1] Group 2 - The investment amount does not meet the standards for submission to the board of directors or shareholders' meeting for review [1] - The project does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring [1]