AI 时代创新先锋，行业配置更进一竿 - 电子行业 2025Q3 基金持仓分析 20251121 摘要 2025 年第三季度电子板块涨幅显著，位居全行业第二，主要受益于算 力相关领域及 AI 消费电子新品，但后者放量预计在明年下半年或后年。 电子行业细分领域中，零部件及元器件配置增长最多，半导体配置比例 最高达 12.91%，重仓标的包括寒武纪、兆易创新等，受益于 AI、大算 力及存储扩产。 立讯精密、工业富联等公司被看好，工业富联新增大量主动型基金持仓， 预示未来成长潜力，并有望在明年业绩中体现。 全球半导体月度销售额创新高，预计未来一两年内可能突破万亿美元， AI 和存储需求共振，存储市场呈现缺货涨价状态，2026 年预计持续高 增速。 尽管存储涨价带来压力，但终端环节软硬件创新将带动电子产品及元器 件板块增长，富联、沪电等公司被大幅增配，仍具备配置价值。 显示器件市场格局稳定，利润趋于稳定，核心龙头公司分红潜力大，但 短期内受 AI 热潮影响，基金有所减配，长期前景依然看好。 外资通过陆股通增配蓝思科技、水晶光电等行业龙头，减配豪威集团等， ETF 重仓股持仓金额增加但集中度下降，AI 仍是确定性投入增 ...

【11月21日16只硬科技产品获批，天弘上证科创板芯片设计主题ETF在列】11月21日，16只硬科技产品 同日迅速获批，天弘基金申报的上证科创板芯片设计主题ETF拿到批文。科创芯片设计指数选取科创板 内芯片设计领域上市公司证券作样本，反映该领域整体表现。 年初至今，科创芯片设计指数累计涨 45%，跑赢沪深300指数30个百分点，且高于中证全指半导体、国证芯片（29%）。相比后两者全产业 链布局，该指数专注产业"大脑"环节，成份股聚焦设计龙头股。 其数字芯片设计占比80.2%，模拟芯片 设计占比15.5%，前十大成分股含寒武纪 - U、海光信息等。2025年前三季度，科创芯片设计指数营收 同比增34.27%，归母净利润同比增186.68%，均居半导体行业指数第一。 这反映国产芯片设计企业在AI 算力、存储等高景气赛道的渗透与商业化落地能力。四季度以来，该指数累计回调超18%，此时天弘相 关ETF获批，为投资者提供投资硬科技上市企业的工具。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 宫收同 ...

大家早上壕！ 先看海外要闻： 三大美股指齐创一个月新低，标普500跌0.92%，道指跌1.18%，纳指跌0.84%。 金融和能源板块跌近2%、领跌标普；芯片指数跌超1%、三连跌，英伟达回落近2%；但被伯克希尔建仓后，谷歌逆市反弹超3%。 中概指数跌超1%、五连跌，小鹏汽车财报后跌10%。 美债价格跌势消减，十年期美债收益率在连升两日后回落。 国内重大事件汇总： 1、中德高级别财金对话在京举行，达成多项成果共识，结束贸易紧张局势。 2、中国产业发展促进会氢能分会以"拒绝内卷 共建生态 迈向真实市场化"为主题举行研讨会，联合产业各方共同发布《中国电解槽行业健康发展 倡议书》。 3、商务部等7部门发布关于开展茧丝绸产业"东绸西固"工作的通知：鼓励创建区域公用品牌，引导头部企业与国际时尚品牌合作。 4、药监局发布关于深化化妆品监管改革促进产业高质量发展的意见：鼓励化妆品新品在中国首发，畅通新功效化妆品注册渠道，实行即报即 审。 5、国家发展改革委联合财政部等部门印发《关于加快建设现代化国有林场的意见》，明确持续提高国有林场生态质量功能，提升优质生态产品 供给能力，加快补齐发展短板，促进国有林场在生态保护、绿色发展、富 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 科创创业ETF（588360）跟踪的是科创创业50指数（931643），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数从科创板中 选取具有高成长潜力和创新能力的高新技术企业作为指数样本，覆盖新一代信息技术、生物医药、新材 料、新能源等前沿领域。该指数旨在综合反映科创板内优质创新企业的整体表现，为投资者提供把握科 技创新领域市场动态与投资机会的有效工具。 中银国际指出，伴随全球算力基础设施加速，电力及存储短缺问题正在凸显。微软及 OpenAI 等头部厂 商面临电力短缺，中国变压器出口金额同比与美国电价趋势亦有所体现。存储涨价趋势验证了 AI 产业 链的高需求，本轮存储周期中价格涨幅和斜率均较高，特别是进入 10 月以来，AI 存储涨价趋势强化， 后续仍有较大上行空间。AI 板块行业配置应关注算力基础设施中资源缺口明确的电力、存力等产业链 环节，包括存储、燃气轮机、SOFC 电池、固态变压器、储能等，相关赛道景气确定性较高。此外，A 股盈利持续改善，科技行业贡献盈利绝对增量，TMT 行业贡献显著，电子、计算机、通信分别贡献 1.4%、0.6%、0.5%。 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of timely and professional information interpretation in investment decision-making [1] - It highlights the investment value of significant events, industry chain companies, and key policy interpretations [1] - The company mentioned, which indirectly holds shares in Moer Thread and Muxi, is deeply involved in the commercial development of thorium-based molten salt reactors [1] Group 2 - In the storage and automotive electronics sector, new LPDDR4 process products are on the verge of release, while there is a shortage in the eMMC product market [1] - The company’s storage products are primarily utilized in the automotive industry, indicating a strategic focus on this growing market [1] - The DRAM product inventory is reported to be sufficient, suggesting a stable supply chain for the company [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategy of Chen Yunzong, a fund manager at GF Fund, focusing on identifying growth stocks and their growth stages through a dual-track approach of "traditional growth" and "emerging growth" [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Chen emphasizes a systematic approach to understanding industry attributes, industry cycle stages, and long-term trends before selecting quality growth stocks [1][2]. - The investment framework is centered around capturing excess returns from diverse growth directions, including technology and manufacturing sectors [2][3]. Performance Metrics - As of October 31, the GF Growth Initiation A fund managed by Chen achieved a one-year return of 88.81%, ranking in the top 3 out of 1,876 similar funds [1]. Fund Launch - A new fund, GF Innovation Growth, is set to launch on November 17, which will dynamically adjust the allocation between traditional and emerging growth to capture excess returns while maintaining industry balance [1][6]. Growth Categories - Growth stocks are categorized into "traditional growth" (e.g., new energy, semiconductors, military industry) and "emerging growth" (e.g., robotics, embodied intelligence, satellite internet) [2][5]. - Traditional growth strategies focus on cyclical growth, while emerging growth serves as an offensive tool for capturing future trends [2][3]. Dynamic Allocation - The allocation between traditional and emerging growth is adjusted based on market liquidity and risk appetite, enhancing both offensive and defensive capabilities of the portfolio [3][4]. Industry Rotation - Chen's investment approach involves a systematic method of industry rotation based on industry cycles, focusing on "industry position" and "valuation margins" rather than merely chasing market trends [4][5]. Future Focus Areas - Key sectors of interest include computing power, storage, edge innovation, brand globalization, robotics, satellite internet, and solid-state batteries [6][7]. - The computing power sector is particularly emphasized, with expectations of significant capital expenditure increases from domestic cloud service providers in the upcoming quarters [6][7]. Specific Sector Insights - The military industry is highlighted as a high-value sector, while the robotics sector is seen as a major application terminal for AI [7]. - Solid-state batteries and low-altitude economy are also critical areas of focus, with expectations of early breakthroughs in these technologies [7].

Core Insights - Economic and financial data show marginal weakening, with internal policy support expectations rising, but the probability of new incremental policies being introduced near year-end is low, leading to continued high-level fluctuations in the market [3][4] - The AI industry adjustment provides better layout opportunities, while sectors with earnings support such as energy storage/batteries, military industry, storage, and engineering machinery should also be emphasized [3][6] Market Perspective - October macroeconomic data continues to show marginal slowdown, with investment declining rapidly and consumption growth remaining low. The GDP growth rate for October is estimated at around 4.6%, which is a marginal decline from the second quarter [4][13] - The third-quarter monetary policy execution report indicates an increased probability of monetary policy easing to support the economy, with a shift in focus towards interest rates rather than quantity [5][22] Industry Allocation - The market has entered a high-level fluctuation phase since early October, with significant increases in industry rotation intensity. Consumption sectors have shown strong performance recently, while resource sectors led the previous week [6][29] - Low valuation and stagnant sectors such as non-banking, food and beverage, agriculture, public utilities, and home appliances are expected to see short-term rebound opportunities [6][30] Financial Data Analysis - Fixed asset investment in October showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with manufacturing investment growth at 2.7%, and real estate investment down by 14.7% [16][19] - The real estate sector continues to show a downward trend, with property investment in October down 23% year-on-year, indicating significant cash flow pressure on real estate companies [19][20] Future Outlook - The AI industry remains a key focus for investment, with specific attention on computing power and application sectors. The third-quarter reports continue to validate the relative performance advantages of growth styles [38][40] - Sectors with strong earnings support, including energy storage, military, storage, and engineering machinery, are also highlighted as promising areas for investment [40]

Market Overview - The Federal Reserve officials adopted a hawkish stance, leading to the largest drop in major U.S. stock indices in a month, with the Nasdaq falling over 2% and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones down over 1% [1] - Disney's quarterly earnings disappointed, causing its stock to drop nearly 8%, leading the Dow components [1] - Tesla's shares fell 6.6%, leading declines among tech giants [1] - Chip stocks and AI-related stocks experienced significant declines, with the chip index down nearly 4% [1] - The offshore RMB rose over 200 points, breaking the 7.10 mark, reaching a two-week high [1] - Bitcoin fell below $100,000, dropping nearly 6% to below $98,000, while Ethereum saw a drop of over 10% [1] Key News - Tencent reported a 19% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3, driven by double-digit growth in enterprise services revenue due to AI cloud services [2][11] - JD.com achieved a 15% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, but adjusted EBITDA fell by 83% [2][11] - SMIC's Q3 revenue grew by 9.9% year-on-year, with net profit surging by 43.1% [2][12] - Bilibili's Q3 revenue increased by 5% to 7.69 billion, with adjusted net profit rising by 233% [2][12] Company Developments - Alibaba's "Tongyi Qianwen" is shifting focus to the consumer market, rebranding as "Qwen" to compete with ChatGPT [3][32] - Baidu unveiled its Kunlun chip super node, showcasing a 95% performance improvement and advancements in autonomous driving technology [4][14] - Microsoft launched its first "AI super factory," integrating data centers to create a planetary-scale computing network [15] - Tesla's AI executive indicated that 2026 will be a challenging year for employees, with significant goals set for the AI team [16] Financial Performance - Tencent's Q3 R&D expenditure reached a record high of 22.82 billion yuan, with a 22% increase in sales and marketing expenses [18] - JD.com's adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was 2.5 billion yuan, significantly below market expectations [18] - Bilibili's user engagement improved, with daily active users reaching 117 million and average usage time increasing to 112 minutes [12] Strategic Moves - Tencent and Apple reached an agreement on a payment sharing model, with Apple taking a 15% commission from WeChat mini-games and applications [19][30] - JD.com plans to invest in AI over the next three years to build a trillion-level smart ecosystem [18] - Alibaba's shift to consumer-focused AI applications aims to create a standalone app that integrates various services [32]

Group 1 - The stock market has experienced increased volatility since late October, but growth-style assets remain a key focus for capital, influenced by the Federal Reserve's second interest rate cut of the year and China's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing support for emerging technology sectors [1] - The market is characterized by a structural differentiation, with funds shifting towards specific segments like storage and energy, while previously popular sectors like optical modules are in a consolidation phase [1] - The growth style is overall dominant this year, but leading sub-industries vary at different stages, with technology and energy sectors taking turns in leading performance [1] Group 2 - Chen Yunzhong, a mid-career fund manager with nearly 10 years in the securities industry and over 4 years of investment experience, has achieved significant returns, including a 46.82% return in the Guangfa Small Cap Select A fund, surpassing the benchmark by 36 percentage points [2] - His management strategy involves dividing growth tracks into traditional and emerging growth, focusing on sectors with strong certainty and leveraging top companies to capture industry beta and stock alpha [2] - Traditional growth sectors include "new semi-military" areas such as new energy, semiconductors, and military industry, characterized by mature industry development and specific cycles [2] Group 3 - Emerging growth sectors are in the early stages of industrialization, focusing on technologies like embodied intelligence, new storage and computing, satellite internet, quantum computing, and solid-state batteries, which are also highlighted in the national technology plan [3] - Chen Yunzhong emphasizes the need for tactical trading in these volatile assets, successfully timing entry and exit points to capture upward trends while avoiding significant downturns [3] - Current promising growth directions include computing power, storage, edge innovation, brand internationalization, robotics, satellite internet, and solid-state batteries, with a particular focus on domestic cloud service providers expected to increase capital expenditures significantly in the coming months [3]

Market Overview - Technology stocks experienced a collective pullback, with indices showing a slight V-shaped recovery [3] - The biodiesel sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Shanhigh Environmental and Jiaao Environmental hitting the daily limit [3] - Gene editing stocks surged, with companies such as Nanjing Xinbai and Jimin Health reaching their daily limits [3] - Oil service stocks also performed well, with companies like Zhun Oil and Shandong Molong hitting the daily limit [3] - The satellite internet sector saw a late-stage rally, with Shanghai Huguang and Shanghai Gangwan both experiencing sharp increases [3] Banking Sector - The banking sector showed resilience amidst the overall market decline, with major banks like Agricultural Bank of China leading the way [5] - Agricultural Bank of China saw a significant increase of 3.49%, reaching a market capitalization of over 3 trillion, solidifying its position as the second-largest bank globally [6] Satellite Internet - The satellite internet sector rebounded sharply in the late trading session, with notable gains from companies like Aerospace Zhizhuang and China Satellite [10] - The catalyst for this rally was the announcement of a new, cheaper Starlink home package by SpaceX, priced at $40 per month [10] Company-Specific Developments - Xingsen Technology experienced a rise of 6% after rumors of a partnership with Nvidia surfaced, although these claims were later disputed [12][13] - Daily Interaction saw a volatile trading session, initially declining but then surging over 10% due to speculation around a new product release related to DeepSeek [19]