芳烃橡胶早报 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2026/0 2/09 69.0 598 900 5115 7005 91.82 302.0 377 264 71.3 74.8 106572 -60 0.15 2026/0 2/10 68.8 612 909 5140 6980 108.08 297.0 360 222 71.3 74.8 113448 -60 0.20 2026/0 2/11 69.4 617 917 5180 6980 108.43 300.0 359 178 71.3 74.8 113652 -60 0.40 2026/0 2/12 67.5 612 910 5205 7025 117.21 298.0 428 206 71.3 74.8 113652 -58 0.35 2026/0 2/13 67.8 594 900 5130 7025 97.39 306.0 403 287 69.5 74.8 11365 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, recent TA has turned to inventory accumulation, with its processing fees and PXN compressed. Considering the improved cash - flow in downstream sectors and the limited potential for further increase in PX supply and TA unit load, the valuation is becoming reasonable, and attention can be paid to phased positive spreads and long - allocation opportunities [2]. - For MEG, after recent valuation compression, supply - side reduction has further increased. Although short - term inventory accumulation continues, the certainty of inventory reduction in the far - month at current prices has increased. During the production cycle, the overall elasticity is limited, and short - term put - selling opportunities can be considered [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken, and it has entered the pre - holiday load - reduction stage. The absolute inventory pressure is not large, with medium - low valuation and weak drivers. The overall contradiction is limited, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipts [2]. - For natural rubber, the main strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From February 6th to 12th, crude oil decreased by 1.9, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 7, PTA inner - market spot increased by 25, and polyester staple fiber POY 150D/48F increased by 45. The PTA processing margin increased by 69, and the polyester gross profit decreased by 28 [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Some proximal TA devices restarted, the start - up rate increased month - on - month, polyester load continued to decline, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis strengthened slightly, and spot processing fees weakened month - on - month. PX restarted in China, overseas load increased slightly, PXN continued to shrink month - on - month, and both disproportionation and isomerization benefits weakened [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From February 6th to 12th, MEG outer - market price decreased by 4, MEG inner - market price decreased by 13, and MEG coal - based profit decreased by 13 [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Proximal domestic oil - based devices restarted while coal - based devices were under maintenance, the overall start - up rate increased slightly, port inventory continued to be obvious at the beginning of next week, the arrival forecast decreased slightly during the week, the basis weakened slightly, and coal - based benefits shrank [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From February 6th to 12th, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 5, and the short - fiber profit decreased by 5 [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Proximal device pre - holiday maintenance continued, the start - up rate further dropped to 77.7%, sales were weak, inventory increased month - on - month, and spot processing fees improved month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn sector continued to decline, raw material inventory and finished product inventory remained stable, and benefits remained the same month - on - month [2]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From February 6th to 12th, for natural rubber, the weekly increase of US - dollar Thai standard rubber was 45, and the weekly increase of Shanghai full - latex rubber was 610. For 20 - number rubber, the weekly increase of NR main contract was 235 [4]. - **Key Ratios and Situations**: The weekly change of the difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract was - 150, and the weekly change of the difference between US - dollar Thai standard rubber and NR main contract was - 49. The main contradiction is not clearly stated, and the strategy is to wait and see [4]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From February 6th to 12th, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased by 11, and the price of benzene - ethylene (CFR China) increased by 3 [9]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene decreased from 582 to 459, the domestic profit of EPS increased from 255 to 325, and the domestic profit of PS increased from - 438 to - 399 [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with some devices restarting, polyester load slightly increasing, and inventory decreasing, the basis strengthens, but the spot processing fee weakens. PX domestic operation declines, and overseas devices reduce load. In the future, TA will maintain a high - inspection state, downstream pressure is not obvious, and with India's revocation of BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope is low, and there are opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees [1]. - For MEG, with domestic coal - chemical devices restarting, overseas devices under maintenance, and port inventory stable, the basis weakens and coal - making efficiency improves slightly. In the future, inventory accumulation may slow down, and the current valuation compression space is limited. There are short - term put - selling opportunities, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [1]. - For polyester short - fiber, the device operation is stable, production and sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases. Demand is basically stable, and exports maintain high growth. In the short term, inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long term. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Market Data**: From November 28 to December 4, 2025, the price of PTA fluctuated slightly. The average daily basis of spot transactions was 2601(-34). The Honggang 250 - million - ton device restarted [1]. - **Market Situation**: Some PTA devices restarted, the start - up rate increased month - on - month, polyester load increased slightly, inventory decreased, the basis continued to strengthen, and the spot processing fee decreased month - on - month. PX domestic operation declined, overseas devices reduced load, PXN strengthened month - on - month, disproportionation efficiency was weak, and isomerization efficiency remained stable. The aromatics price difference between the US and Asia shrank [1]. - **Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - inspection state, downstream especially filament and staple fiber have no obvious pressure. With India's revocation of BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope is low, and far - month production capacity is limited. PX has a good pattern. Pay attention to opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees [1]. MEG - **Market Data**: From November 28 to December 4, 2025, the price of MEG decreased. The basis was around 01(-3). The Shenghong 90 - million - ton device restarted [1]. - **Market Situation**: There was a concentrated restart of domestic coal - chemical devices, the start - up rate increased month - on - month. Some overseas devices were under maintenance, port inventory was stable at the beginning of the week, and the arrival forecast was low. The basis weakened, and coal - making efficiency improved slightly [1]. - **Outlook**: With supply reduction and high polyester start - up, the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. Coal - making efficiency is at a low level, and the comparison with other olefins has weakened. The current valuation compression space is limited. Pay attention to short - term put - selling opportunities. In the long term, with new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure, the overall pattern is expected to be weak [1]. Polyester Short - Fiber - **Market Data**: The spot price was around 6339, and the market basis was around 01 - 80. The start - up rate was maintained at 97.5%, production and sales improved slightly, and inventory decreased month - on - month [1]. - **Market Situation**: The device operation was stable in the near - term. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory increased, with stable efficiency [1]. - **Outlook**: Short - fiber demand remains basically the same as before. Polyester yarn efficiency and start - up rate have not improved significantly, but short - fiber exports maintain high growth. In the short term, inventory pressure is limited. In the far - month, as the downstream enters the off - season and new supply devices are approaching launch, the pattern may weaken. The current processing fee is relatively neutral. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. Natural Rubber - **Market Data**: From November 28 to December 4, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber decreased to varying degrees. The national explicit inventory was stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price was stable [1]. - **Market Situation**: The Thai cup - rubber price was stable due to rainfall [1]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, maintain high maintenance, downstream has no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, TA inventory accumulation slope is not high, far - month production is limited, PX pattern is good, focus on buying low for positive spread and expanding processing fees opportunities [2] - For MEG, supply reduction and high polyester operation may slow down inventory accumulation, coal - made profit is low, valuation compression space is limited, focus on short - term selling put options; long - term pattern is weak due to new device launch and warehouse receipt pressure [4] - For polyester staple fiber, short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high export, but long - term pattern may weaken as downstream enters off - season and new devices are approaching, current processing fee is neutral, focus on warehouse receipt situation [4] - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, national explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping, strategy is to wait and see [4] PTA - PTA spot average daily trading basis for 2601 is - 34, Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device restarts [2] - Near - end TA device restarts, operation rate rises, polyester load slightly increases, inventory decreases, basis strengthens, spot processing fee weakens; PX domestic operation rate drops, overseas devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, isomerization benefit is stable, US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread shrinks [2] MEG - MEG spot basis for 01 is around - 2, Shenghong's 900,000 - ton device restarts [4] - Near - end domestic coal - chemical devices restart, operation rate rises, overseas devices are under maintenance, port inventory is stable at the beginning of the week with low arrival forecast, basis weakens, coal - made profit improves slightly [4] Polyester Staple Fiber - Spot price is around 6347, market basis for 01 is around - 100, no device maintenance information [4] - Near - end device operation is stable, operation rate is 97.5%, sales improve slightly, inventory decreases. Downstream yarn operation rate is stable, raw material inventory decreases and finished product inventory increases, profit is maintained [4] Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - There are daily and weekly changes in various prices such as spot prices of Thai standard and mixed rubber, Shanghai full - latex, etc. [4] - There are also changes in spreads and processing profits, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange RU warehouse receipt remains unchanged at 41,400 [4] Styrene - There are daily changes in prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene and its downstream products such as PS, ABS [7] - There are also changes in Asian spreads and domestic profits of styrene, EPS, PS, ABS [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with some near - end devices restarting,开工 rising, polyester load slightly increasing, inventory decreasing, and basis strengthening, while PX domestic operation decreasing and overseas devices reducing load, there are opportunities for long - short spreads and expanding processing fees. [1] - For MEG, with domestic coal - chemical devices restarting, overseas devices under maintenance, and port inventory stabilizing, there are short - term selling put opportunities, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak. [1] - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end operation is stable, with inventory pressure limited in the short term due to high export growth, but the pattern may weaken in the long term, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation. [1] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, with national explicit inventory stable and Thai cup - lump price stable, the strategy is to wait and see. [1] Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, PTA spot price increased by 75, polyester margin decreased by 76, and PTA load increased by 0.2. [1] - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device restarted. [1] - **Market Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, with limited inventory accumulation slope, and there are opportunities for long - short spreads and expanding processing fees. [1] MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, MEG outer - market price increased by 1, and coal - made profit increased by 19. [1] - **Device Changes**: Shenghong's 900,000 - ton device restarted. [1] - **Market Outlook**: The inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, and there are short - term selling put opportunities, but the long - term pattern is weak. [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 25, and short - fiber profit decreased by 25. [1] - **Device Status**: The near - end device operation is stable, with an operation rate of 97.5%. [1] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long term, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation. [1] Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 90. [1] - **Market Outlook**: With national explicit inventory stable and Thai cup - lump price stable, the strategy is to wait and see. [1] Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From 2025/11/25 to 2025/12/01, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, and styrene domestic profit remained at - 138. [4]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: PTA Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, crude oil remained stable at 63.3, while PTA spot price was 4610, and POY 150D/48F was 6490. Naphtha cracking spread was 101.72, PX processing margin was 260, PTA processing margin was 162, and polyester gross profit was 92. PTA balance load was 78.2, and PTA load was 71.0. The change in仓单+有效预报was 324, and TA basis declined by 10, with sales-to-production ratio remaining unchanged [3]. - PTA's average daily trading basis was 2601(-36), and Honggang's 2.5 million - ton plant restarted [3]. Weekly View - Near - term TA: Some plants restarted, with开工 rate rising, polyester load slightly increasing, inventory decreasing, basis strengthening, and spot processing fee weakening. PX domestic开工 rate declined, some overseas plants reduced production, PXN strengthened, disproportionation efficiency was weak, and isomerization efficiency was stable. The US - Asia aromatics spread shrank [3]. - Future outlook: TA will maintain high - maintenance status, downstream (especially filaments and staple fibers) shows no obvious pressure. With India revoking BIS certification, TA inventory accumulation rate is low, far - month production capacity addition is limited, and PX situation is good. Attention should be paid to opportunities for long - short arbitrage at low prices and expanding processing fees [3]. Group 3: MEG Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene was 730. MEG's external price was 461, internal price was 3900, East China price was 3900, far - month price was 3907. MEG coal - based profit was - 478, internal cash flow (ethylene) was - 668, total load was 70.8, coal - based MEG load was 66.5, and port inventory was 73.2 [3]. - MEG's basis was around 01(+5), and Shenghong's 900,000 - ton plant restarted [3]. Weekly View - Near - term: There was concentrated restart of domestic coal - chemical plants,开工 rate increased, some overseas plants were under maintenance, port inventory was stable at the beginning of the week, and the forecast of weekly arrivals was low. Basis weakened, and coal - based efficiency improved slightly [3]. - Future outlook: With supply reduction and high polyester开工 rate, inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. Coal - based efficiency is at a low level, and the comparison with other olefins has weakened. The room for further compression of the current valuation is limited. Attention should be paid to short - term put - selling opportunities. In the long term, with new plant launches and warehouse receipts suppressing the market structure, the overall situation is expected to be weak [3]. Group 4: Polyester Staple Fiber Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber was 6365, low - melting staple fiber was 7580, and other product prices remained stable. The开工 rate of virgin staple fiber was 98, recycled cotton - type was 51, and yarn - making开工 rate was 66. Short - fiber profit was 99, pure polyester yarn profit was 35, cotton - polyester staple fiber spread was 8115, and viscose - polyester staple fiber spread was 6485 [3]. - The spot price was around 6312, and the market basis was around 01 - 90 [3]. Weekly View - Near - term: Plant operation was stable,开工 rate was maintained at 97.5%, sales - to - production ratio improved slightly, and inventory decreased. On the demand side, the开工 rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory increased, with efficiency maintained [3]. - Future outlook: Short - fiber demand remains basically the same as before. Although the efficiency and开工 rate of polyester yarn have not improved significantly, short - fiber exports maintain high growth, and short - term inventory pressure is limited. In the far - month, downstream enters the off - season, and with new plant launches approaching, the situation may weaken. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt conditions [3]. Group 5: Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 5 to 1830, Thai mixed rubber increased by 10 to 1825, RMB mixed rubber increased by 70 to 14630, Shanghai full - latex increased by 170 to 14710, and Shanghai 3L remained unchanged at 15200 [6]. - The weekly change in the difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract was - 100, between US - dollar Thai standard rubber and NR main contract was - 11, between RU09 and RU01 was 0, and between RU main contract and NR main contract was 180. The上期所RU仓单 remained unchanged at 41400 [6]. Main Contradictions - National explicit inventory is stable, and the absolute level is not high [6]. - Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [6]. Strategy - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [6]. Group 6: Styrene Analysis Market Data - From November 24 - 28, 2025, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 730, pure benzene (CFR China) increased from 664 to 665, pure benzene (East China) increased by 35 to 5355, and styrene (CFR China) increased by 5 to 820 [10]. - The daily change in PS (East China transparent benzene) was 0, ABS (0215A) was 0, Asian spread was 0, pure benzene - naphtha spread was 0, styrene domestic profit decreased by 50 to 25, EPS domestic profit decreased by 50, and PS and ABS domestic profits remained unchanged at - 926 [10].