1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in the near - term, TA device runs stably, polyester load drops slightly, inventory decreases, and basis strengthens slightly. In the future, as the terminal weakens, polyester load may reach a turning point, and TA inventory will accumulate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider long - position opportunities at low prices in the long - run due to good PX prospects [2]. - For MEG, domestic oil - based units reduce load, and overseas units also cut production. The port inventory accumulates. In the future, after the valuation is compressed, production cuts increase, and the inventory accumulation narrows. However, considering new production capacity, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate decreases due to maintenance. Sales are stable, and inventory is stable. In the future, demand remains the same, but new production capacity is accelerating, and the downstream is entering the off - season. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, crude oil price dropped by 0.4 USD, PTA spot price decreased by 30 CNY, and polyester gross profit increased by 35 CNY. The PTA balance load decreased by 0.3%, and the basis increased by 3 CNY. The daily average basis of PTA spot trading for 2601 is - 22 [2]. - **Situation Analysis**: Near - term TA device runs stably, polyester load drops slightly, inventory decreases, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fee weakens. In the future, as the terminal weakens, polyester load may reach a turning point, and TA inventory will accumulate, but the overall pressure is not large and the valuation is not high [2]. MEG - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, MEG outer - market price dropped by 2 USD, and MEG inner - market price decreased by 28 CNY. The coal - based MEG profit increased by 14.24 CNY, and the inner - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased by 26 CNY [2]. - **Situation Analysis**: Near - term domestic oil - based units reduce load, overseas units also cut production, the port inventory accumulates, and the basis weakens. In the future, after the valuation is compressed, production cuts increase, and the inventory accumulation narrows [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 50 CNY, and the profit of pure - polyester yarn increased by 50 CNY [2]. - **Situation Analysis**: Near - term the start - up rate decreases due to maintenance, sales are stable, and inventory is stable. In the future, demand remains the same, but new production capacity is accelerating, and the downstream is entering the off - season [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 5 USD, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased by 40 CNY. The basis between mixed rubber and RU main contract decreased by 25 CNY [2]. - **Situation Analysis**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable. The main contradiction lies in stable inventory and rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - **Data Changes**: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 10 USD, and the price of EPS (East China ordinary material) remained unchanged. The domestic profit of styrene decreased by 87 CNY [2][5]. - **Situation Analysis**: No overall situation analysis provided in the report. Only data changes are presented.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, focus on opportunities for low - level positive spreads and expanding processing fees [2][10] - For MEG, in the short - term, consider selling put options, while in the long - term, the overall pattern is expected to be weak [3] - For polyester short - fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [3] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump rubber price affected by rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Near - end TA partial device restarts, start - up increases, polyester load slightly rises, inventory decreases, basis strengthens, and spot processing fee weakens. PX domestic start - up declines, overseas partial devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, and isomerization benefit is stable. The US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon price difference shrinks. In the future, TA maintains high maintenance, downstream has no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, so the inventory accumulation slope is not high, and PX pattern is good [2] - PTA spot average daily trading basis is 2601(-34), and Honggang 250 - million - ton device restarts [9] MEG - Near - end domestic coal - chemical industry restarts intensively, start - up increases, overseas partial devices are under maintenance, port inventory is stable at the beginning of next week, weekly arrival forecast is low, basis weakens, and coal - based profit slightly improves. In the future, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, and the current valuation compression space may be limited. Pay attention to short - term put - selling opportunities, while the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [3] - Shenghong's 900,000 - ton device restarts, and MEG spot basis is near 01(-1) [3] Polyester Short - Fiber - Near - end device operation is stable, start - up is maintained at 97.5%, sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material inventory decreases, and finished product inventory accumulates. In the future, short - fiber demand basically maintains the previous state, short - fiber export maintains high growth, short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and pay attention to warehouse receipt situation [3] - Spot price is near 6337, and market basis is near 01 - 100 [3] Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - National explicit inventory is stable and at a low absolute level, Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3] Styrene - Daily changes show that ethylene price is stable, pure benzene price has minor changes, and styrene price increases. Domestic profits of styrene, EPS, and PS have different degrees of improvement [7] PX - PX domestic start - up declines, overseas partial devices reduce load, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is weak, and isomerization benefit is stable. The US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon price difference shrinks [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with the restart of devices, TA de - stocking slows down. The polyester shows no unexpected performance, and with new production in the future, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, the processing fee has reached a very low level for a long time, and as PX supply gradually returns, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand processing fees [3]. - For MEG, new devices are put into operation earlier than expected, and the valuation is significantly compressed. With the subsequent increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the far - month, port inventory may gradually accumulate, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, the speed of increasing production at the polyester yarn end may slow down due to high finished - product inventory. The staple fiber has a high operating rate due to good spot benefits, with limited inventory pressure, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [4]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Device Changes**: Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device restarted [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA maintenance is over, the operating rate rises, polyester load slightly increases, inventory remains stable, the basis is weak, and the spot processing fee is at a low level. PX domestic operating rate rises, overseas devices restart, PXN remains the same, disproportionation efficiency remains stable while isomerization efficiency weakens, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia remains stable [3]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device restarted, Inner Mongolia Jinyuan's 260,000 - ton device and Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device were under maintenance [4]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based production slightly increases the load, the overall load rises. Overseas, there are both maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals during the week, port inventory slightly accumulates. Downstream inventory levels rise, the basis weakens, and the efficiency ratio shrinks [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: Near - end, Sanfangxiang and Yizheng increased their loads, and the operating rate rose to 94.4% [4]. - **Market Situation**: The production and sales improved compared with the previous period, and inventory slightly decreased. On the demand side, the polyester yarn operating rate remained stable, raw material inventory decreased, finished - product inventory decreased, and the efficiency was weak [4]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, prices of various types of rubber, including US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, etc., showed different degrees of decline. For example, the US - dollar Thai standard rubber spot price decreased from $1,875 to $1,850 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [4]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, prices of raw materials and products such as ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene showed certain fluctuations. For example, the CFR China price of styrene decreased from $878 to $870 on September 11 - 12 [7]. - **Profit Situation**: The domestic profit of styrene remained at a loss, while the domestic profit of EPS increased from 235 to 295 from September 11 - 12 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, although it remains in a state of inventory accumulation, the absolute inventory level is not high. With the current low processing fees for spot goods persisting for some time, and considering the limited inventory pressure of filament and the continuous inventory reduction of bottle - grade chips at low operation rates, the polyester operation rate is expected to gradually stabilize and has upward potential. It is advisable to look for opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is not significant, and the port inventory is expected to remain at a low level. The situation is favorable and the profit margin is decent. However, in the far - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation due to the restart of overseas plants and the further increase of coal - based operation rates. The valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it should be regarded as a wide - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of the polyester yarn end is reduced, the downstream operation rate may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fees on the futures market are still in a relatively low range, opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices can be considered [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level but does not show seasonal reduction. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, crude oil prices dropped from $69.7 to $66.4, PTA internal - market spot prices decreased from 4750 to 4690, and PTA processing fees decreased from 121 to 101. The PXN spread weakened significantly, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits declined [2]. - **Device Changes**: Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, and its 1.2 - million - ton plant restarted; Ineos' 2.35 - million - ton plant reduced production by 20%; Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 - million - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the MEG external - market price decreased from 523 to 525, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 506 to 512. The MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased from - 568 to - 554 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Inner Mongolia Tongliao's 300,000 - ton plant restarted, and Shanxi Wonen's 300,000 - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6600 to 6550, and the short - fiber profit increased from 21 to 21 (with fluctuations in between). The cotton - polyester staple fiber spread increased from 8185 to 8340 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Xianglu's small - line plant was under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly to 90.3% [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard spot increased from 1720 to 1760, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 13910 to 14150. The RU main - contract price increased from 14310 to 15525 [2]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread between the mixed rubber and the RU main - contract decreased from - 260 to - 1215, and the spread between the US - dollar - denominated Thai standard and the NR main - contract increased from 197 to 289 [2]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the price of pure benzene (East China) increased from 6070 to 6135, and the domestic styrene profit remained at - 198 (with fluctuations in between). The EPS domestic profit decreased from 320 to 200 [5].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, it will maintain a stockpiling state but the absolute inventory level is not high. The current low processing fee for spot has lasted for some time. With limited inventory pressure on filament and continuous inventory reduction of bottle - grade polyester at low operation rates, the polyester operation rate is expected to stabilize and has upward potential. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, the short - term stockpiling pressure is not high, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. The situation is good and the profit is not low. In the long term, there is an inventory accumulation expectation due to the restart of overseas plants and the further increase of coal - based operation rate, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side. It should be regarded as a wide - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellites [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished product inventory of polyester yarn is reduced, the downstream operation rate may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fee on the futures market is still in a low range, attention can be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying at low prices [4]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable and the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. Summary by Category PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of crude oil fluctuated between 69.7 - 73.2, the price of PX CFR changed from 851 to 846, and the PTA processing margin decreased from 272.0 to 242.0 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials' 7.2 - million - ton plant reduced its operation rate to 80% - 90%, and Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. - **Market Situation**: The operation rate of proximal TA existing plants decreased significantly while new plants started production. The polyester operation rate declined slightly, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis was weakly maintained, and the spot processing fee decreased again. The domestic operation rate of PX increased slightly, there were some unexpected situations overseas, the PXN weakened significantly, the profitability of disproportionation and isomerization declined, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia continued to shrink [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the MEG outer - market price decreased from 528 to 523, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 684 to 506 [4]. - **Device Changes**: The 300,000 - ton plant of Inner Mongolia Tongliao stopped production; the 400,000 - ton plant of Xinjiang Guanghui restarted; the 300,000 - ton plant of Inner Mongolia Zhonghuaxue restarted [4]. - **Market Situation**: Proximal domestic coal - based plants had some maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly. Affected by the weather during the week, both port arrivals and pick - ups decreased significantly, and the port inventory still decreased slightly. The downstream stocking level decreased significantly, the basis strengthened slightly, and the profit declined from the high level [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6675 to 6600, and the short - fiber profit increased from 47 to 21 [4]. - **Device Changes**: The small - line plant of Xianglu was under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly to 90.3% [4]. - **Market Situation**: The operation rate of polyester yarn remained stable, the raw material stocking decreased, the finished product inventory decreased, and the profit declined [4]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 1800 to 1720, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14665 to 13910 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the absolute level was not high, but there was no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping [4]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased from 751 to 764, and the styrene domestic profit decreased from - 147 to - 218 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The prices of PS (East China transparent benzene) and ABS (0215A) remained stable at 7830 and 10000 respectively, and the Asian price difference (pure benzene - naphtha) decreased from 160 to 138 [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, after the maintenance of the terminal TA is implemented, the start - up rate decreases month - on - month, the polyester start - up rate rises, the inventory is slightly reduced, the basis strengthens again, and the spot processing fee improves month - on - month. Subsequently, it will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage, and the monthly drive may switch between the continuous reduction of PX inventory and the additional reduction of polyester efficiency, with increased fluctuations [1]. - For MEG, the domestic maintenance continues to resume, the start - up rate continues to rise, the Iranian devices stop intensively, the port inventory is slightly reduced, the downstream stocking level rises slightly, and the basis weakens month - on - month. In the future, it will also pass the inventory reduction stage, but the inventory accumulation amplitude is expected to be limited due to Iranian import disturbances, showing a sideways pattern [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate increases, the sales volume remains the same month - on - month, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The demand side has weakening efficiency, but the export maintains a high growth rate. There are also production reduction plans, and the processing fee is expected to remain weak [2]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable, the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounds, and the strategy is to wait and see [2]. - For styrene and its downstream products, the prices and profits of related products fluctuate, and the start - up rates of different products also show different trends [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 17 to June 23, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased from $76.5 to $71.5, the PX price fluctuated, and the PTA internal spot price increased from 5020 to 5260. The PTA processing difference, production and sales, and other indicators also changed [1]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials reduced the load of its 3.6 - million - ton device [1]. - **Market Outlook**: Gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage, with the monthly drive switching between PX inventory reduction and polyester efficiency compression [1]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 17 to June 23, 2025, the MEG internal and external prices, profits, and other indicators changed. The basis for 09 was around +82 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Shaanxi Yueneng's 400,000 - ton device restarted, and Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2]. - **Market Outlook**: After experiencing the inventory reduction stage, the inventory accumulation amplitude is expected to be limited, showing a sideways pattern [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: The spot price was around 6933, and the market basis was around 07 + 10. The prices of related products such as cotton - polyester staple fiber also changed [2]. - **Device Changes**: Fujian Jinlun restarted, and the start - up rate increased to 95.1% [2]. - **Market Outlook**: There are production reduction plans, and the processing fee is expected to remain weak [2]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 1 to June 23, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber, such as Thai glue, Shanghai full - latex, and 20 - number glue, changed. The daily and weekly changes of different varieties were different [2]. - **Market Outlook**: With stable inventory and a rebound in Thai cup rubber price, the strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene and Related Products - **Price and Index Changes**: From June 17 to June 23, 2025, the prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products such as EPS, ABS, and PS changed, and the profits of domestic products also fluctuated [2]. - **Start - up Rate Changes**: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS showed different trends over time [2].

Report Overview - Report Title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report - Report Date: May 20, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - For PTA, the inventory de - stocking process will gradually shift to PX, and attention should be paid to opportunities to shrink the processing fee of far - month TA [2]. - For MEG, due to the unexpected reduction in oil - based supply and the short - term resilience of demand, the de - stocking of port inventory is expected to be more significant, and attention should be paid to phased positive spread opportunities [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the inventory has decreased month - on - month, the overall high supply and weak downstream profits mean that the fundamentals are unlikely to improve significantly, but the processing fee on the futures market has been compressed to a relatively low level, so it is expected to remain weak [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, with a slight reduction in national visible inventory, a small rebound in the price of Thai cup lump rubber, and the easing of the trade war, the recommended strategy is to wait and see [3]. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the price of PTA domestic spot fluctuated. The PTA processing fee generally increased, and the polyester gross profit also showed certain fluctuations. On May 19, the average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2509(+198) [2][3]. - **Industry Conditions**: The near - end TA start - up rate increased month - on - month, the polyester start - up rate continued to rise, the inventory continued to be de - stocked, the basis strengthened overall, and the spot processing fee decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic PX start - up rate declined, overseas maintenance was implemented, PXN and its structure continued to strengthen, the efficiency of isomerization and disproportionation improved, and the aromatics price spread between the US and Asia declined [3]. MEG - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the price of MEG foreign and domestic spot fluctuated slightly. The MEG cash flow (ethylene) and profit continued to expand. On May 19, the negotiation price of MEG spot was around 4569 - 4573, and the basis was around 09(+92) [3]. - **Industry Conditions**: Near - end domestic oil - based MEG had unexpected shutdowns, coal - based MEG had planned maintenance, the start - up rate declined significantly. With less arrivals, port inventory was de - stocked, the downstream inventory level declined, the basis strengthened, and the profit and price ratio continued to expand [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the price of polyester staple fiber products fluctuated slightly. The profit of staple fiber and pure polyester yarn also showed certain changes. On May 19, the spot price was around 6645, and the market basis was around 06 - 20 [3]. - **Industry Conditions**: Near - end Shanghai Yuanfang and Jiangyin Youcai increased their production capacity, the start - up rate increased to 96.2%, production and sales improved month - on - month, and inventory was de - stocked. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory increased, and inventory decreased month - on - month, but the profit declined [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the prices of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber products fluctuated. The price difference between different varieties also changed. For example, on May 19, the daily change of the RU main contract was +100, and the weekly change was - 20 [3]. - **Industry Conditions**: The national visible inventory decreased slightly, the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded slightly, and the trade war situation eased [3]. Styrene - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the prices of raw materials such as ethylene and pure benzene, as well as styrene and its downstream products, fluctuated. The domestic profit of styrene and its downstream products also changed. For example, on May 19, the daily change of styrene (CFR China) was +15 [3].