芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/21 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/11/ 14 64.4 577 832 4635 6570 105.02 255.0 142 124 77.5 75.7 114594 -77 0.70 2025/11/ 17 64.2 571 831 4615 6590 100.66 260.0 122 161 77.5 75.7 114594 -74 0.45 2025/11/ 18 64.9 569 827 4610 6585 92.86 258.0 137 170 77.5 75.7 114594 -71 0.35 2025/11/ 19 63.5 573 832 4640 6585 107.47 259.0 137 155 77.5 75.7 117198 -70 0.55 2025/11/ 20 63.4 573 833 4630 6585 107.47 26 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For PTA, with some near - end TA device maintenance,开工 decreasing, polyester load dropping, and inventory accumulating, the basis is weak but the spot processing fee improves slightly. PX has a good pattern, and opportunities for long - short spreads and expanding processing fees should be noted [3]. - For MEG, short - term inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the supply may decrease due to low profitability. In the long term, the overall pattern may weaken due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the performance of the yarn end is not significantly improved, the high export growth of staple fiber results in no obvious inventory accumulation. Opportunities for expanding processing fees and the situation of warehouse receipts should be noted [3]. - For natural rubber, with stable national explicit inventory and rainfall affecting rubber tapping in Thailand, the strategy is to wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 13 - 19, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 1.4, PTA internal - market spot price increased by 30, and polyester margin decreased by 15. The PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged at 77.5 and 75.7 respectively, and the warehouse receipt + effective forecast increased by 2604 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million - ton device was under maintenance [3]. - **Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, and with no obvious pressure from downstream products and the revocation of BIS certification by India, the inventory accumulation slope is not high. There are limited new investments in the far - month, and PX has a good pattern [3]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 13 - 19, 2025, the MEG external - market price decreased by 4, the MEG internal - market price decreased by 33, and the MEG coal - making profit decreased by 33. The MEG total load and coal - made MEG load remained unchanged at 71.6 and 68.0 respectively, and the MEG port inventory remained at 73.2 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device, Huayi's 200,000 - ton device were under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarted [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the supply may decrease due to low profitability. In the long term, the overall pattern may weaken due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 13 - 19, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 20, and the short - fiber profit increased by 6 while the pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 20 [3]. - **Device Status**: Near - end devices ran smoothly, and the operating rate was maintained at 97.5%. The production and sales were weak, and the inventory increased month - on - month [3]. - **Outlook**: Although the performance of the yarn end is not significantly improved, the high export growth of staple fiber results in no obvious inventory accumulation. There are relatively limited new capacity investments in the short term [3]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: From November 13 - 19, 2025, the price of RU main contract increased by 145, and the price of NR main contract increased by 135. The weekly changes of the mixed - RU main contract, US - dollar Thai standard - NR main contract, etc. also showed certain fluctuations [6]. - **Main Contradictions**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the absolute level is not high. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [6]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From November 13 - 19, 2025, the price of styrene (CFR China) increased by 8, and the price of styrene (Jiangsu) increased by 60. The price of PS (East China transparent benzene) increased by 50, while the price of ABS (0215A) decreased by 50 [10]. - **Margin Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene decreased by 85, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 34 [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with increased unexpected TA maintenance, rising polyester开工, and improving supply - demand, there are opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [3]. - For MEG, the current situation is good with low inventory, but the far - month is expected to accumulate inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun should be monitored [9]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the destocking continues, there are opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [9]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are stable national explicit inventory without seasonal destocking and the rebound of Thai cup - rubber prices due to rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [9]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PTA - **Price Changes**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, crude oil remained stable, while other prices such as naphtha, PX CFR Taiwan, etc., changed to different extents [2]. - **Market Situation**: Spot daily average trading basis is 2509(+25). Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton and Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton plants are under maintenance. Near - term TA unexpected maintenance increases, polyester load rises, inventory decreases, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees improve. PX domestic operation rate increases slightly, overseas plants restart, PXN strengthens, disproportionation efficiency weakens, and isomerization efficiency reaches a high level [3]. MEG - **Price Changes**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, MEG outer - market, etc., had certain changes [9]. - **Market Situation**: Spot basis is around 09(+92). Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton plant restarts, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton plant is under maintenance. Near - term domestic oil - based plants restart, coal - based operation rate drops slightly, overall load rises, port inventory decreases, basis remains strong, and efficiency ratio is basically stable [9]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price Changes**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, prices of 1.4D cotton - type, low - melting - point staple fiber, etc., changed to different degrees [9]. - **Market Situation**: Spot price is around 6610, and market basis is around 10 - 170. Near - term Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng increase production, operation rate rises slightly to 91.9%, production and sales are basically stable, and inventory decreases [9]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, prices of US - dollar Thai standard, US - dollar Thai mixed, etc., had daily and weekly changes [9]. - **Market Situation**: The main contradictions are stable national explicit inventory without seasonal destocking and the rebound of Thai cup - rubber prices due to rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [9]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, prices of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia), pure benzene (CFR China), etc., changed to different degrees [12]. - **Market Situation**: There are changes in prices of PS, ABS, and domestic profits of styrene - related products [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA开工 is rising, polyester load is slightly increasing, inventory is accumulating, and basis is weak. The subsequent supply - demand may improve, and it's advisable to focus on opportunities to expand processing margins at low prices [2] - For MEG, the near - term domestic device restarts are postponed, and overseas there are unexpected maintenance. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short term, and it's advisable to focus on the satellite restart progress [2] - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term start - up is slightly increasing, and downstream demand is improving. Considering the low processing margins on the disk, it's advisable to focus on opportunities to expand processing margins at low prices [2] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price has rebounded. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2] - For styrene, price data for related products are provided, but no clear overall view is given Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and data: PTA spot daily average basis is 2509(-11), and the change in relevant data from August 12 - 18 shows fluctuations. For example, the PX CFR price has changed by 0.7, and the PTA internal - market spot price has changed in its own range [2] - Device changes: Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance [2] - Market situation: Near - term TA开工 is rising, polyester load is slightly increasing, inventory is accumulating, basis is weak, and spot processing margins are still low. PX domestic开工 is slightly rising, overseas maintenance and restart co - exist, PXN is strengthening, and the US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread is slightly rising [2] - Outlook: TA additional maintenance is increasing due to low processing margins. The filament sales are weak, but there will be no further short - term production cuts. The bottle - chip inventory is decreasing under low start - up. Overall, polyester开工 is expected to stabilize and has upward potential, and supply - demand may improve [2] MEG - Price and data: MEG spot basis is around 09(+87), and the change in relevant data from August 12 - 18 shows that some prices have decreased, such as the MEG external - market price which has dropped by 2 [2] - Device changes: Xinjiang Tianying's 15 - thousand - ton device has restarted [2] - Market situation: Near - term domestic device restarts are postponed, and overseas there are unexpected maintenance. The port inventory is expected to accumulate due to increased arrivals and stable shipments. Downstream stocking levels are rising, basis is stable, and oil - based profits have recovered [2] - Outlook: EG supply has postponed restarts and overseas unexpected maintenance. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. The long - term is expected to accumulate inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate widely, depending on the satellite restart progress [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and data: The price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber on August 12 was 6570, and there were slight price changes in subsequent days. The daily change on August 18 shows that some prices remained unchanged, and some profits increased [2] - Device changes: Ningbo Dafa's technical - reform device has resumed operation [2] - Market situation: Near - term start - up has slightly increased to 91.1%, sales are stable, and inventory has remained unchanged. Downstream polyester yarn start - up has increased, raw - material stocking has increased, finished - product inventory has decreased, and profits have been maintained [2] - Outlook: As the downstream finished - product inventory decreases, downstream start - up may continue to rise. Although staple - fiber supply may also increase, the overall space is limited. Considering the low processing margins on the disk, focus on opportunities to expand processing margins at low prices [2] Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Price and data: The price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber on August 12 was 1805, and there were price changes in subsequent days. The daily and weekly changes in various price spreads and related data are also provided [2] - Market situation: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping [2] - Strategy: Wait and see [2] Styrene - Price and data: From August 12 - 18, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 825, while the prices of other related products such as pure benzene and styrene showed different degrees of decline. The daily change on August 18 shows that some prices decreased, and some profits increased [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: Near - term开工环比回升，聚酯负荷小幅提升，库存累积，基差偏弱，现货加工费低；PX国内开工小幅回升，海外检修重启并存，开工小幅回落，PXN环比走强。 TA低加工费下额外检修增加，需求端长丝产销乏力但难减产，瓶片低开工去库，聚酯开工预计走稳并向上，供需有望改善，关注逢低做扩加工费机会 [2] - **MEG**: 近端国内装置部分推迟重启，开工基本持稳，海外意外检修，周内到港回升发货平稳预计港口库存累积，下游备货回升，基差持稳，油制效益修复。短期累库压力不大，港口库存预计偏低，远月检修回归与新装置投产有累库预期，估值受成本影响大，偏宽幅震荡，关注卫星重启进度 [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 近端华西提负，开工小幅回升至90.6%，产销持稳，库存累积。需求端涤纱开工持稳，原料备货维持，成品库存去化，效益修复。下游开工后续或抬升，短纤供应可能提升，盘面加工费低，关注逢低做扩加工费机会 [2] - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Rubber**: 主要矛盾是全国显性库存持稳，无季节性去化，泰国杯胶价格反弹，降雨影响割胶，策略为观望 [2] - **Styrene**: 相关产品价格有一定变化，如乙烯、纯苯等价格波动，国产利润也有不同程度变动 [2] 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, crude oil price remained at 66.6, PX price decreased by 3, PTA price increased by 70, PX processing margin increased by 7, polyester gross profit decreased by 2.8, and PTA basis increased by 5 [2] - **Device Changes**: Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million - ton device restarted [2] MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, Northeast Asia ethylene price increased by 5, MEG external price increased by 4, MEG internal price increased by 19, and MEG coal - based profit increased by 19 [2] - **Device Changes**: Shanxi Wouneng's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained stable, short - fiber profit was stable, and the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber increased by 40 [2] - **Device Changes**: Not mentioned Natural Rubber & 20 - Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, the price of US - dollar Thai standard increased by 60, the price of RMB mixed rubber increased by 430, and the price of RU main contract increased by 1390 [2] - **Device Changes**: Not mentioned Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, ethylene price remained stable, pure benzene price remained stable in some cases, and styrene CFR China price increased by 3 [2] - **Device Changes**: Not mentioned

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the start - up is expected to gradually stabilize and have upward flexibility. Investors can focus on opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, in the short term, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. The pattern is good and the profit is not low. In the long - term, there is an inventory accumulation expectation due to overseas device restart and increased coal - based load. It should be viewed with wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite devices [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of polyester yarn is reduced, the downstream start - up may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fee on the disk is still in a low range, investors can focus on opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable with a not - high absolute level but no seasonal reduction, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased from $73.2 to $67.6, the PTA internal - market spot price decreased from 4860 to 4660, and the PTA processing margin changed from 119 to 75 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials increased the load of its 7.2 - million - ton device; Taihua plans to overhaul a 1.5 - million - ton device and restart a 1.2 - million - ton device [2]. - **Market Situation**: The load of proximal TA existing devices decreased significantly while new devices started production. The polyester load declined slightly, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis was weak, and the spot processing fee decreased again. The domestic start - up of PX increased slightly, there were some overseas accidents, the PXN weakened significantly, the benefits of disproportionation and isomerization declined, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia continued to shrink [3]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the MEG external - market price decreased from 531 to 523, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 712 to 489 [3]. - **Device Changes**: The 300,000 - ton device in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, restarted [3]. - **Market Situation**: The start - up of domestic coal - based MEG decreased slightly. Affected by the weather, both the port arrival and提货 decreased significantly during the week, the port inventory decreased slightly, the downstream stocking level decreased significantly, the basis strengthened slightly, and the profit declined from a high level [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6665 to 6550, and the short - fiber profit increased from - 23 to 56 [3]. - **Device Changes**: The small - line of Xianglu stopped for maintenance, and the start - up decreased slightly to 90.3% [3]. - **Market Situation**: The start - up of the polyester yarn end remained stable, the raw - material stocking decreased, the finished - product inventory decreased, and the profit declined [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 1780 to 1760, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14545 to 14145 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected tapping [3]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased from 767 to 750, and the styrene domestic profit changed from - 162 to - 182 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The price of related products such as styrene, PS, and ABS changed slightly, and the profit of some products also changed slightly [6].