Report Overview - The report provides daily and weekly data on various chemical products including PTA, MEG, polyester staple fiber, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and styrene, along with weekly and daily views on each product [2][3][6] PTA Key Data - On July 30, 2025, PTA spot成交 had an average daily basis of 2509(-11). The Yisheng New Material's 7.2 - billion - ton plant reduced its load to 80 - 90% [2] Core View - Near - term TA operation remained stable, polyester load slightly recovered, inventory continued to accumulate, and the basis weakened under active sales by major suppliers, with spot processing fees dropping again. PX domestic operation decreased slightly, overseas load was stable, PXN strengthened significantly, disproportionation and isomerization benefits remained, and the aromatics spread between the US and Asia shrank. TA will remain in a state of inventory accumulation but the absolute inventory level is not high, and spot processing fees are compressed to a low level. Polyester operation is expected to stabilize and has upward potential. Attention should be paid to short - term low - level positive arbitrage opportunities. The overall de - stocking trend of PX has not reversed, and there is still a guarantee for the lower limit of valuation [2] MEG Key Data - As of July 30, 2025, the basis of MEG spot was around 09(+64) [3] Core View - Near - term domestic coal - based MEG increased operation, Saudi Arabian plants restarted overseas, and port inventory is expected to accumulate due to more arrivals during the week. Downstream inventory levels increased, the basis remained the same, and the spread of benefits widened further. In the short term, port inventory is expected to remain low with little pressure to accumulate. The far - month has inventory accumulation expectations due to overseas plant restarts and further increase in coal - based load, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [3] Polyester Staple Fiber Key Data - As of July 30, 2025, the spot price was around 6619, and the market basis was around 08 - 70 [3] Core View - Near - term Sichuan Jixing restarted, and Times Hollow Fiber reduced production. Operation increased slightly to 90.6%, sales improved slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. On the demand side, the operation of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory increased slightly, finished - product inventory continued to accumulate, and benefits further declined, showing a weak performance. In the future, the inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, the supply of standard products has not decreased significantly but also has no increase. Domestic demand is weak while export growth is high, and processing fees are gradually entering a low - level range but there is no obvious upward driver. Attention should be paid to the subsequent operation status of polyester yarn [3] Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber Key Data - As of July 30, 2025, the daily change in the price of Thai RSS3 was 0, and the weekly change was - 15. The daily change in the price of Thai STR20 was 0, and the weekly change was - 15 [3] Core View - The main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory remained stable with a low absolute level but no seasonal de - stocking, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3] Styrene Key Data - On July 30, 2025, the daily change in the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 0, the daily change in the price of pure benzene (CFR China) was 0, and the daily change in the price of styrene (CFR China) was 5 [6] Core View - No specific view was provided in the report for styrene, only price data were presented [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, it maintains a state of inventory accumulation, with the spot processing fee dropping again. PX still has a guarantee for its lower valuation limit, and one can focus on the phased opportunity of going long in a contango market when the price is low [2][14]. - For MEG, the short - term port inventory is expected to remain low, and the long - term has an inventory accumulation expectation under the restart of overseas plants and the increase of coal - based load, showing a wide - range oscillation. One should focus on the restart progress of satellite plants [8]. - For polyester staple fiber, the inventory pressure is acceptable, but there is no obvious upward driving force. One should focus on the subsequent start - up status of polyester yarn [8]. - For natural rubber and 20 - gauge rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable with a relatively low absolute level, and the Thai cup - lump rubber price rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 0.8, the price of naphtha increased by 5, the price of PX CFR Taiwan increased by 18, the PTA internal - market spot price increased by 80, and the PTA processing difference remained unchanged. The PTA balance load increased by 0.2, and the TA basis decreased by 5 [14]. - Near - term TA start - up remains stable, polyester load rises slightly, inventory continues to accumulate, and the basis weakens under the active shipment of mainstream suppliers, with the spot processing fee dropping again [14]. MEG - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the MEG external - market price increased by 5, the MEG internal - market price increased by 52, the MEG coal - based profit increased by 39.68, and the MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) increased by 50. There were several domestic plant restarts and load increases [8]. - Near - term domestic coal - based start - up rises, overseas Saudi plants restart, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. In the short term, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the long - term has an inventory accumulation expectation, showing a wide - range oscillation [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 55, and the short - fiber profit decreased by 30. The start - up increased slightly to 90.6%, sales improved slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [8]. - The demand side shows that the start - up of polyester yarn remains stable, raw material inventory increases slightly, finished - product inventory accumulates, and the profit further decreases [8]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Gauge Rubber - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 35, the price of US - dollar Thai mixed rubber increased by 25, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased by 340 [8]. - The national explicit inventory remains stable with a relatively low absolute level, and the Thai cup - lump rubber price rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [8]. Styrene - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the price of pure benzene (East China) increased by 115, the price of benzene - ethylene (CFR China) increased by 15, and the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) increased by 50 [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a high - level volatile market with falling oil prices. The strategy is to go long on PX and short on PTA, and conduct positive spreads on dips [1][2][8]. - For PTA, conduct positive spreads on dips. Although polyester filament manufacturers plan to cut production of loss - making products, the PTA operating rate reached a new high this week, and subsequent polyester inventory should be monitored [8]. - For MEG, supply is further shrinking. The price of ethylene glycol continues to be strong unilaterally due to unexpected supply shortages amplifying the spread fluctuations [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: On May 15, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had daily changes of - 1.7%, - 1.6%, - 1.0%, - 1.6%, and - 1.4% respectively compared to the previous day [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: On May 15, 2025, the daily changes of PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 were - 2, - 4, - 19, 4, and - 106 respectively [3]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On May 15, 2025, the daily changes of PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA07 - PF07, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 were 1, - 31, - 40, 50, and - 11 respectively [3]. - **Basis and Other Data**: On May 15, 2025, the daily changes of PX basis, PTA basis, MEG basis, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spread were - 20, - 60, - 18, 98, and 1 respectively. The daily changes of PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were - 5,136, 660, unchanged, unchanged, and unchanged respectively [3]. Market Overview - **PX**: On May 15, the PX price fell. The 6 - month Asian spot had 3 transactions at 860, 856, 856, and the 7 - month Asian spot had 3 transactions at 848, 850, 851. The PX valuation was 854 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16 dollars from the 14th [5]. - **PTA**: This week, the 300 - million - ton Jiayuan plant resumed, the 2.5 - million - ton Shandong Weilian plant increased its load, and the PTA load of some plants recovered. By Thursday, the PTA load increased to 76.9%, and the current PTA operating rate is around 82.7%. Several PTA plants have restart or load - increasing plans [5][6]. - **MEG**: As of May 15, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 60.51% (down 8.48% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 60.04% (down 6.71% from the previous period) [6]. - **Polyester**: The overall polyester load continued to increase this week. As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 95.3%. A 40 - million - ton new polyester plant in Tongxiang started operation. However, a 25 - million - ton polyester plant in Ningbo will reduce its load by 30% next week. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber and polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 15th were generally light [6][7].