Group 1: Southbound Bond Connect Expansion - The Southbound Bond Connect's overall custody balance may exceed 800 billion RMB, with a theoretical maximum custody scale of over 1.8 trillion RMB by the end of 2025 if investment quotas and institutional expansions are implemented[2] - As of July 8, 2025, the Southbound Bond Connect has announced multiple optimization measures, including support for more domestic investors to invest in offshore bond markets and enhancements to liquidity management for foreign investors[2] - The total scale of bonds under the Southbound Bond Connect is currently 7.68 trillion RMB, with USD bonds, HKD bonds, and dim sum bonds accounting for 95% of the total[2] Group 2: Dim Sum Bonds Overview - The current stock of dim sum bonds under the Southbound Bond Connect is 1.7 trillion RMB, with credit bonds, government bonds, and certificates of deposit making up 57%, 29%, and 14% of the total, respectively[3] - Investment-grade dim sum credit bonds constitute 55% of the total dim sum credit bonds, while unrated bonds account for 44%[3] - The issuance scale of dim sum credit bonds reached 6.181 billion RMB by the end of July 2025, with a net financing scale exceeding 4 trillion RMB in 2024[2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The dim sum bond market has seen significant expansion since 2021, driven by policy support and tightening financing conditions for domestic city investment bonds[2] - The supply of dim sum bonds is primarily concentrated in the 3-year and under category, which accounts for 77.32% of the total stock[3] - The average coupon rates for government and non-city investment credit bonds range between 2.3% and 3.3%, while city investment dim sum bonds have significantly higher rates, exceeding 5% for bonds with maturities of 3 years or less[3] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential policy changes may impact the future expansion and scope of the Southbound Bond Connect, posing risks to investors[9] - Unexpected changes in overseas markets could disrupt offshore RMB liquidity, affecting the performance of dim sum bonds[9] - Credit defaults beyond expectations could significantly disturb the offshore bond market, highlighting the need for careful credit risk assessment[9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expansion of Southbound Connect and the improvement of its operating mechanism will provide new channels for domestic institutional investors to allocate overseas bonds. The expansion of participants and the improvement of the mechanism will bring new opportunities for domestic institutional investors to invest in overseas bonds. - The expansion of domestic institutional investors in Southbound Connect is expected to alleviate the unmet demand of non - bank institutions for overseas bond allocation. Non - bank institutions will have more channels to invest in overseas bonds, and the overseas bond market may see more capital inflows into high - coupon bonds such as Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and Dim Sum bonds, which may lead to a further decline in bond yields [91][92]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Recent Development of Bond "Southbound Connect" - **Background and Purpose**: Southbound Connect aims to facilitate domestic institutional investors to allocate offshore bonds by strengthening the cooperation between bond market infrastructure institutions in the Mainland and Hong Kong [11]. - **Regulatory Policy Development**: It has gone through three stages: policy preparation (2017 - 2020), policy launch (2021 - 2022), and deep - opening (2023 - present). In 2025, it is proposed to expand the scope of domestic investors to non - bank institutions and improve relevant mechanisms [13][16][17]. 3.2 Operating Mechanism and Participation Methods of Southbound Connect - **Business Operation and Regulatory Mechanism**: The scope of domestic investors is currently limited to 41 banks and QDII/RQDII - qualified institutions. Investors need to open accounts through designated domestic custodian banks or bond registration and settlement institutions and open accounts in the CMU system of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority for cross - border custody. The total annual quota for all participating institutions is 500 billion yuan, and the daily quota is 20 billion yuan [24][33]. - **Current Domestic Investors Participating in Southbound Connect**: As of July 2025, the expansion policy has not been fully implemented. The investors are still limited to primary dealers (excluding non - bank institutions and rural commercial banks) and QDII/RQDII - qualified institutional investors [32]. - **Participation Process**: It includes qualification approval and account opening, and the bidding process (viewing quotation intentions, sending quotation requests, receiving responses from quotation providers, and confirming transactions). Currently, investors mainly prefer investment - grade Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and high - rated Dim Sum bonds, and the expansion of investors may change the investment preference [38][40]. 3.3 Current Investment Opportunities in Southbound Connect - **Overall Situation of Southbound Connect Sector**: The investable bonds include offshore RMB bonds (Dim Sum bonds), Hong Kong dollar bonds, and G3 currency bonds. As of July 29, 2025, the total scale of tradable bonds in the Hong Kong market was 1.2052 trillion US dollars, with 5,892 bonds. Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and Dim Sum bonds accounted for more than 70% of the investable bonds in Southbound Connect [54]. - **Focus on Dim Sum Bonds**: The scale of Dim Sum bonds has expanded significantly since 2023. As of July 17, 2025, there were 3,099 outstanding Dim Sum bonds with a total scale of 1.5449 trillion yuan. The financial services and sovereign debt sectors have a large scale. Dim Sum bonds have a higher coupon rate than domestic bonds, especially in the urban investment, real estate, and bank sectors. However, attention should be paid to their subsequent performance as the yields have declined significantly in recent months [63][64][67]. - **Focus on Chinese - funded US dollar bonds**: As of early July 2025, there were 2,009 outstanding Chinese - funded US dollar bonds with a total scale of 666.7 billion US dollars. The real estate, internet media, bank, and urban investment sectors have a large scale. The issuance of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds has slowed down since 2023, and the newly issued bonds are mainly unrated. Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have a higher coupon rate than domestic bonds, especially in the urban investment and real estate sectors. Attention should be paid to high - quality individual bonds and short - term risks [71][74][83]. 3.4 Impact of the Expansion of Domestic Institutional Investors in Southbound Connect - **For Non - bank Institutions**: The expansion of participants is expected to alleviate the unmet demand of non - bank institutions for overseas bond allocation. They can invest in overseas bonds through the Southbound Connect channel in addition to using QDII quotas [91]. - **For the Overseas Bond Market**: Non - bank institutions have a relatively more active risk preference. High - risk - return bonds such as the real estate and urban investment sectors of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and the urban investment sector of Dim Sum bonds may receive more attention and capital inflows, which may lead to a further decline in bond yields [92].

港股保险股早盘震荡走高，中国平安(02318.HK)、中国太保(02601.HK)双双涨超5%，阳光保险 (06963.HK)、新华保险(01336.HK)、友邦保险(01299.HK)等个股跟涨。近日，中国人民银行和香港金融 管理局表示将对南向通范围扩容；东吴证券表示，南向通的扩容将打开险资出海新通道，有助于缓解险 企投资端压力。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 南向通扩容：投资新机遇 ——2025年下半年中资境外债展望 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 张晋源 A0230525040001 2025.06.09 ◼ 引言：债券"南向通"自2021年9月24日实施，期间主要参与者仍较为单一，政策后续或拓宽，险资等非银机构或能通过此类渠道来实现对境 外债的新增配置，点心债及中资美元债为主要扩容方向；展望下半年：1）点心债走势或持续偏强，超额利差将继续收窄，关注政府债配置机会； 2）中资美元债短期行情偏震荡，短期参与需偏谨慎，适度配置部分短久期债券。 ◼ 当前债券"南向通"的额度使用及投资者参与情况： 1） 2022年美元加息周期以来，境外债券超额收益优势体现，上清所托管"南向通"债券 规模持续上行，目前处于历史高点（2025年4月超5300余亿）；2）当前南向通合资格投资者（除QDII&RQDII外）仅41家银行交易商。 ◼ 近期债券"南向通"政策有边际扩容迹象，保险等非银机构后续或被纳入： ✓ 2025年1月以来，香港金融管理局与中国人民银行多次发声，明确"后续将扩大合资格境内投资者范围"； ✓ 部分险资机构已公告通过债券"南向 ...