Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in pork prices during the consumption peak season, with the average price of lean pigs at 12.49 CNY/kg, up 2.6% week-on-week but down 22.7% year-on-year [6][14]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of leading feed companies expanding overseas, suggesting a focus on their international business growth [6][16]. Livestock Farming - The average price of 6.5 kg piglets has risen to 330 CNY/head, reflecting a 7.5% week-on-week increase, indicating a positive outlook among farmers for pork prices in the second half of the year [6][14]. - Major recommended companies in the livestock sector include Wen's Food Group and Muyuan Foods, with attention also on Dekang Agriculture and New Hope [6][14]. - The report notes that the industry is in a "tug-of-war" state, with companies possessing cost advantages having a significant competitive edge [6][14]. Dairy Industry - The current price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.02 CNY/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and 3.2% year-on-year, while some regions see prices rebounding to 3.3-3.4 CNY/kg [15]. - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in beef prices due to supply constraints, recommending companies like Yuran Dairy and Modern Dairy [15]. Feed and Animal Health - Prices for common and specialty fish and shrimp have continued to rise, driven by tight supply and increased demand as the Spring Festival approaches [16]. - The report suggests that leading feed companies are likely to see market share growth due to their comprehensive advantages, with a focus on international expansion [16]. - In the animal health sector, companies are expanding into pet healthcare, with recommendations for companies like Keqian Biological and Princely Biological [16]. Agricultural Sector - The report indicates that the domestic corn price is 2364 CNY/ton, up 0.5% week-on-week, while soybean meal prices are at 3196 CNY/ton, down 0.9% [18][44]. - The report highlights the importance of biotechnology advancements and industry consolidation in the seed sector, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [18]. Market Performance - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 2.7 percentage points, with the animal health sector showing a 1.2% increase [22]. - The report notes that the livestock sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with self-bred pigs showing a profit of 7.39 CNY/head [24].

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，2026年，我国牛肉总进口配额为268.8万吨，其中巴西份额 为110.6万吨，阿根廷为51.1万吨，乌拉圭32.4万吨，澳大利亚为20.5万吨。随着前期肉牛产能去化效应 显现，当前肉牛价格已经步入上行通道。同时，对进口牛肉产品配额制落地将有效缓和进口端的供应压 力，预计26年国内肉牛价格继续周期上涨，增厚牧业公司业绩弹性。此外，原奶行业大包粉库存逐步去 化，行业供需逐步走向平衡，目前原奶供给拐点已现，亦看好2026-27年原奶周期上行。 广发证券主要观点如下： 事件：12月31日，商务部发布公告，裁定进口牛肉数量增加对中国国内产业造成严重损害，决定自2026 年1月1日以"国别配额及配额外加征关税"形式对进口牛肉采取保障措施，保障措施实施期限为3年，对 超过配额的进口牛肉征收55%的额外关税，配额将逐年增加。 2024年进口牛肉占总供应27%，配额制落地缓和进口冲击 根据海关总署及国家统计局数据，2024年，我国牛肉进口量为287万吨，同比增长5.0%，其中巴西、阿 根廷、乌拉圭、澳大利亚进口量分别134万吨、59万吨、24万吨、21万吨，占比分别46.6%、20.6 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in pork prices before the New Year, with the average price of lean pigs reaching 12.39 CNY/kg, a 7.6% increase from the previous week, although it remains 19.7% lower year-on-year [5][13][23] - The implementation of a safeguard policy for beef import quotas is expected to alleviate domestic supply pressures, with a total import quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026, which is 93.5% of the total imports in 2024 [14] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages in the livestock sector, particularly Wens Foodstuff and Muyuan Foods, while also highlighting potential turnaround candidates like Zhengbang Technology [5][13] Livestock Farming - The report notes that the pork market is under pressure due to significant losses in the industry, but the reduction in production capacity is expected to accelerate, leading to a more stable price environment in the first half of 2026 [5][13] - For poultry, the average price of white feather chickens is reported at 3.78 CNY/lb, down 3.1% week-on-week, while yellow feather chicken prices have shown slight increases, benefiting companies like Lihua and Wens [5][13][32] Dairy Industry - The current price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year, indicating a balance in supply and demand as inventory levels decrease [14] - The safeguard measures on beef imports are anticipated to support domestic beef prices, which are expected to rise, enhancing the performance of companies like Yurun and Modern Farming [14] Feed and Animal Health - The report indicates a rebound in aquaculture prices due to holiday demand, with significant increases in white shrimp prices leading up to the New Year [15] - The feed industry is facing intense competition, but leading companies are expected to gain market share due to their cost advantages, especially in international markets [15] Agricultural Sector Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.7 percentage points, with livestock farming and feed sectors showing the highest gains of 1.4% and 0.5%, respectively [21] - The report tracks various agricultural product prices, noting fluctuations in corn and soybean meal prices, with corn prices rising by 0.6% to 2352 CNY/ton [23][46]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 农林牧渔行业 牛肉进口实施配额制及配额外关税，看好肉牛价格周期上行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-04 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -4% 4% 11% 19% 26% 34% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 农林牧渔 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]钱浩 | SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 | | | --- | --- | --- | | SFC CE No. BND274 | 021-38003634 | | | shqianhao@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 李雅琦 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524080006 | 021-68827265 | | | liyaqi@gf.com.cn | 请注意，李雅琦并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 ...