1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel exports are expected to remain high due to low valuations and some export - grabbing factors. Before the Spring Festival, the domestic market is weak, and prices have fully priced in weak demand. The overall steel market is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan; for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market will gradually transition to a situation of weak supply and demand. Prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with high inventory suppressing the upside and steel mill restocking expectations and molten iron production recovery providing support. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the trading strategy is range - bound operation, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the futures market has fallen in advance, and the spot price decline depends on the coking coal price drop. After the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises resist price cuts and limit production to protect prices. The recommended strategy is to go long on the dips and consider the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand drives the market. The strategy is also to go long on the dips and consider the same arbitrage [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, and production has reached a historically low level. Demand has some support, and costs also provide support. It is recommended to go long on the dips, with a reference support level of around 5500. For ferromanganese, the supply is at a historically neutral - low level, and demand has support. Manganese ore prices support the ferromanganese price. It is recommended to go long on the dips, with a reference support level of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices show different changes. For example, rebar 01 contract increased by 10 yuan, while hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased by 49 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of steelmaking in Jiangsu increased, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron output increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase [1]. Demand - The total apparent demand of steel has recovered. The export of steel remains high [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 164.0 to 2920.4, a 5.9% increase, while the global shipment volume decreased by 32.8 to 3213.7, a 1.0% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - unloading volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase, and the inventory of 247 steel mills' imported ore increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices changed slightly. For example, the coke 05 contract decreased by 7 yuan, and the coking coal 05 contract increased by 6 yuan [6]. Supply - Coke production increased slightly, and coking coal production showed a small - scale recovery [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal increased [6]. Inventory - The overall inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly, with different inventory changes in different sectors [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices were relatively stable. The prices of some spot products remained unchanged [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions increased slightly, and the production profit decreased [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production was basically flat, and ferromanganese production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from the steelmaking industry had some support due to the recovery of molten iron production [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon in 60 sample enterprises increased, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the steel futures market showed a slight decline, and steel procurement was weak. This week, the output of the five major steel products continued to increase, and the molten iron output rose due to the recovery of profit levels. The total steel inventory started to accumulate, but hot-rolled coils were still being destocked, with inventory shifting from factory warehouses to social warehouses, and the overall rebar inventory accumulating. Seasonal factors led to a further weakening of the apparent demand for construction steel, and the funds available to downstream construction sites declined. The demand for hot-rolled coils was slightly digested, but steel exports declined in January due to export license issues. On the raw material side, coal mine inventories decreased, and prices soared recently due to market news, driving up steel prices. The structural shortage of PB fines has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for restocking, providing cost support. The continuous resumption of molten iron production also limited the further rise of steel prices. Therefore, steel prices remained volatile. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of macro news on the futures market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was priced at 3,290 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3,180 yuan (+20 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coils at 3,320 yuan (+20 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coils at 3,220 yuan (+10 yuan) [4] Market Judgments Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: As the futures market corrected, long positions could take profits [6] - Arbitrage: It was recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold short positions on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - Options: It was recommended to wait and see [8] Important Information - As of January 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.53%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.37 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non-housing construction projects was 60.59%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.41 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 54.41%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The capital availability rate ended a two-week increase and started to decline, mainly due to new projects occupying some funds and the decline in payment collection for existing projects [9] - In December 2025, the average monthly working hours of major construction machinery products in China were 76.5 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.19%. The monthly startup rate was 51.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 4.72 percentage points. For excavators, the average monthly working hours were 69.3 hours, and the monthly startup rate was 52.6% [10] Related Attachments - The report includes various charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, and profit margins of rebar and hot-rolled coils, such as the summary prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, the basis of different contracts in Shanghai, the spreads between different contracts, and the profit margins of different contracts and production processes [15][17][19]