本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | | 86,080.00 | +420.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,779.00 | +1.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | | -20.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 192,392.00 | +2174.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | | -22,172.00 | +1385 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The risk sentiment for copper remains weak, and the price is oscillating. The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main - contract was 86,130 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 85,920 with a decrease of 0.24%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price was 10,686 with a decrease of 1.08% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index decreased by 7,559 to 177,960, and the open interest decreased by 4,003 to 523,117. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic - trading increased by 2,012 to 18,624, and the open interest increased by 84 to 317,000 [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 3,369 to 54,983, and the LME Copper inventory increased by 50 to 157,925. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 6.00%, a decrease of 0.16% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread increased by 2.20 to - 33.13. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 200 to 78,400. Other spreads such as the spot - to - near - month, near - month - to - first - continuous, and cross - period arbitrage costs also showed certain changes [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: In the US, the non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, far exceeding expectations, but the employment figures of the previous two months were revised down by 33,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, a four - year high. The number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to 220,000, while the number of continued claims reached a four - year high. A Dutch official suspended the intervention in Nexperia, and China's Ministry of Commerce welcomed the move but noted the gap from "revoking the administrative order" [1]. - **Industry News**: In September, Peru's copper production increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 240,995 tons, and the output in the first nine months of 2025 was about 2.048 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase. Marimaca Copper's copper oxide mine project in Chile obtained environmental approval. China's copper product output in October 2025 was 2.004 million tons, a month - on - month decline of over 10%. Freeport plans to restart the Grasberg mine before July, with expected copper and gold output in the next year to be the same as this year. In October 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates decreased by 5.24% month - on - month but increased by 6.08% year - on - year; imports of scrap copper increased by 6.81% month - on - month and 7.35% year - on - year; imports of refined copper decreased by 13.62% month - on - month and 16.32% year - on - year [3].

沪铜产业日报 2025/11/20 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 86,130.00 | +50.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,754.00 | +1.50↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 30.00 | +30.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 187,778.00 | +34471.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -27,082 ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/11/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 86,080.00 | +430.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,751.00 | +31.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 153,278.00 | -11118.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -23,694.00 | +11.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 136,050.00 | +325.00↑ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 109,407.00 | -5628.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 9,475.00 | -175.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 60,874.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 86,115.0 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the growth of China's copper material industry, highlighting production statistics and future market research reports [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of September 2025, China's copper material production reached 2.23 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [1]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative production of copper materials in China was 18.575 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 9.6% [1]. Group 2: Related Companies - The article mentions several listed companies in the copper industry, including Yunnan Copper (000878), Bowei Alloys (601137), Baiyin Nonferrous Metals (601212), Jintian Copper (601609), and Zhongyuan New Materials (603527) [1]. Group 3: Market Research - The report titled "2026-2032 China Copper Material Industry Market Survey and Investment Strategy Research Report" by Zhiyan Consulting is referenced, indicating ongoing research and analysis in the sector [1].

Core Insights - China's copper production in October 2025 reached 200.4 thousand tons, showing a month-on-month decline of over 10% [1] - From January to October, China's copper production totaled 2,012.4 thousand tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [1] - In October, copper prices continued to rise, reaching historical highs, which significantly suppressed downstream demand, leading to a decline in copper production [1]

Core Insights - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in October 2025 reached 1.204 million tons, marking an 8.9% year-on-year increase. Cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year growth [1][2]. Group 1: Metal Production Data - Alumina production in October was 7.865 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% and a cumulative increase of 8.0% for the year [2]. - Non-ferrous metals production totaled 6.954 million tons in October, showing a 2.9% year-on-year increase and a cumulative increase of 3.1% [2]. - Zinc production in October was 0.665 million tons, with a significant year-on-year increase of 15.7% and a cumulative increase of 8.5% [2]. - Aluminum production in October was 0.645 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, while cumulative production showed a slight increase of 0.3% [2]. - Copper products production was 2.004 million tons in October, down 3.3% year-on-year, but cumulative production increased by 5.9% [2]. - Aluminum alloy production reached 1.682 million tons in October, with a notable year-on-year increase of 17.2% and a cumulative increase of 15.7% [2].

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Jiangxi Province's trade with ASEAN countries has achieved an average annual growth rate of 6.6% [1][2] Group 1: Trade Growth and Strategies - Jiangxi has promoted rational and orderly cross-border layout for enterprises, with leading companies establishing a presence in Belt and Road Initiative countries [1] - A number of small and medium-sized export enterprises have invested in Southeast Asia, setting up small processing plants and building overseas marketing networks [1] Group 2: Export Performance - Key products from Jiangxi have seen rapid export growth, with average annual export growth rates for computer and communication technology, automotive parts, copper materials, lithium batteries, and fireworks being 3.2%, 44.5%, 13.1%, 39.6%, and 19.1% respectively [2] - The average annual growth rate of imports and exports for production-oriented enterprises in Jiangxi is 13.5%, with their share of the province's foreign trade increasing by 25.5 percentage points [2] Group 3: Trade Expansion with Specific Regions - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries and Latin American countries has further expanded, with average annual growth rates of 5.3% and 14.5% respectively during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]

Core Insights - China's transformer exports reached 29.711 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 51.42%, positioning China as a crucial player in the global power system amidst a transformer crisis in Europe and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The transformer shortage is significantly hindering energy transition projects across the U.S. and Europe, with many projects stalled due to supply chain disruptions [3] - In California, Meta's data center has transformer delivery schedules extending to 2026, leading to substantial penalty costs; over 20 states in the U.S. are forced to reuse outdated transformers, causing reliability issues [3] - The demand for transformers is surging, particularly from AI data centers and renewable energy projects, which require significantly more transformers compared to traditional power plants [3] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Impact - The U.S. imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese transformers, resulting in a price increase from $3,330 to $6,800 per unit, despite a domestic supply that meets only 20% of demand [5] - The tariff has led to a self-imposed blockade, prompting the U.S. to quietly approve exemptions while European countries are opting for pragmatic cooperation with China [5] Group 3: China's Competitive Advantage - China's dominance in the transformer market is attributed to its comprehensive control over the entire supply chain, producing all core components domestically [7] - The efficiency of Chinese manufacturers allows for a delivery time of 10 months for large transformers, with urgent orders fulfilled in just 3 months, compared to 2-4 years for similar products in Europe and the U.S. [7] - Innovations in transformer technology, such as the world's first 500 kV plant oil transformer and advanced supercapacitors, showcase China's ability to surpass mere price competition [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated strongly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate supply shortage has not improved, TC fees hover in the negative range, and the firm ore price provides solid cost support for copper prices. Due to many smelting plants under maintenance and tight supply of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity is limited. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, shows signs of decline, affecting smelting profits and weakening production enthusiasm. Domestic refined copper supply may gradually shrink. High copper prices affect downstream purchasing strategies, and downstream buyers are pressing prices and maintaining just - in - time demand. Overall consumption is expected to improve, and downstream demand may be released as copper prices decline. In general, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of shrinking supply and gradually improving demand, with positive industry expectations and orderly inventory reduction. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.29, up 0.0104 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment, and implied volatility slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 86,320 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,759 dollars/ton, up 61.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 211,098 lots, down 5,926 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 13,834 lots, down 182 lots; LME copper inventory was 133,975 tons, up 75 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 116,140 tons, up 11,348 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants were 10,650 tons, down 275 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 43,893 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 85,995 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 85,865 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 34 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 325 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 38.37 dollars/ton, down 7.92 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 42.15 dollars/kiloton, up 0.55 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 76,160 yuan/metal ton, up 440 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 76,860 yuan/metal ton, up 440 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 1,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the north was 900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 126.6 million tons, down 3.5 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 58,190 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 71,850 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 223.2 million tons, up 1 million tons. The cumulative value of investment in power grid infrastructure construction was 437.807 billion yuan, up 58.231 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 6,770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949 pieces [2]. Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 18.16%, down 5.5%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 19.42%, up 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 15.27%, down 0.0033. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.29, up 0.0104 [2]. Industry News - In October, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a penetration rate of 58.7%. The ADP employment in the US increased by 42,000 in October, the largest increase since July 2025, higher than the market expectation of 28,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in October was 52.4, the highest since February 2025. The US federal government shutdown has entered the 36th day, breaking the previous record. The Congressional Budget Office said it may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. If the deadlock continues until Thanksgiving week, about 14 billion dollars in economic losses will be irrecoverable. The State Council will continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff on US imports for one year, retaining the 10% tariff rate. Premier Li Qiang said China will focus on high - quality development and promote high - level opening - up [2].