铜材

Search documents
铜产业链周度报告-20251010
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 09:41
铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号:F0272984 投资咨询资格号:Z0011970 中航期货 2025-10-10 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 摘 | 报 | 告 | 要 | A | 1 | P | R | T | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...
美联储内部存分歧,沪铜或震荡偏强运行
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 06:06
铜月报 美联储内部存分歧,沪铜或震荡偏强运行 内容提要 美联储内部对降息幅度存分歧 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色研究员:刘江 国家统计局数据显示,1—8月份,全国规模以上工业企业实现利 润总额46929.7亿元,同比增长0.9%。1—8月份,有色金属冶炼和压延 加工业增长12.7%。美联储内部关于利率调整的幅度与速度存在持续辩 论。最新点阵图显示,在19位美联储官员中,有10位认为"今年还将 降息两次或更多",另外9位则认为将再降息一次,甚至不再降息。CME "美联储观察"数据显示,美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为10.7%, 降息25个基点的概率为89.3%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为2.9%, 累计降息25个基点的概率为32.2%,累计降息50个基点的概率为64.9%。 中国精炼铜产量同比快速增长 中国铜冶炼厂粗炼费(TC)、精炼费(RC)持续维持低位,加工 费持续为负,企业积极性持续受到影响。中国精炼铜产量同比快速增 长,产量维持高位。精废铜价持续缩小。铜材产量同比保持增长,电 网建设投资保持增长,终端需求仍有支撑。 COMEX 铜持续累库 沪铜库存小幅下降,LME铜库存有所回落,COME ...
2025年1-8月中国铜材产量为1659.8万吨 累计增长10.7%
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-10-04 01:04
上市企业:云南铜业(000878),博威合金(601137),白银有色(601212),金田股份(601609),众源新 材(603527) 2020-2025年1-8月中国铜材产量统计图 数据来源:国家统计局,智研咨询整理 知前沿,问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构,十数年持续深耕产业研究领域,提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力,专注于提供完善的产业解决方案,为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国铜材行业市场调查研究及投资策略研究报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示:2025年8月中国铜材产量为222万吨,同比增长9.8%;2025年1-8月中国铜材 累计产量为1659.8万吨,累计增长10.7%。 ...
沪铜产业日报-20250930
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 08:11
沪铜产业日报 2025/9/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 83,110.00 | +740.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,383.00 | -31.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | -10.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 213,859.00 | +67.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -8,035.00 | +7085.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 143,900.00 | -500.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 98,779.00 | -7035.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 9,875.00 | -450.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 26,823.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 83,240.00 ...
多重因素共振 有色金属板块领涨A股
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 03:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by government policies aimed at promoting consumption upgrades and high-end applications in the industry [1][2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's non-ferrous metal index rose by 3.85% during the trading session, with notable individual stock performances including Xiyu Co. hitting the daily limit, and Jiangxi Copper, Huayou Cobalt, and Yongxing Materials increasing by 8.28%, 7.45%, and 7.44% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, released a plan for the non-ferrous metal industry aimed at enhancing the application of rare metals and accelerating the validation of high-end products such as high-purity gallium and tungsten hard alloys [1] Group 2 - The energy metals sector is leading the gains, benefiting from the rise of solid-state batteries and regulatory changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo regarding cobalt exports, which will be subject to quotas starting October 16 [1] - Following the announcement of the new export policy, cobalt prices surged, with the price reaching 344,000 yuan per ton, leading to significant increases in the A-share cobalt sector, including Huayou Cobalt hitting the daily limit and Tengyuan Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt seeing maximum increases of 8.32% and 10.59% respectively [2]
供需收紧,铜价震荡偏强
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 08:20
分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 冠通期货-沪铜2025年四季报 供需收紧,铜价震荡偏强 研究咨询部: 王 静 执业资格证号:F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间: 2025年9月29日 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 核心观点 2 ➢ 宏观方面:三季度美联储交易降息预期,市场有降息50bp的预期,且对美联储独立性存疑,美元指数连续下挫,铜价震荡偏强但降息靴子落地后不及市场预 期,沪铜盘面下行,回吐部分涨幅。232调查的铜关税落地,自8月1日起对进口铜半成品及铜含量高的衍生产品统一征收50%的关税,征收范围不包含铜矿及 精铜,此前美国铜虹吸效应逐渐结束。国内方面,反内卷举措推涨大宗商品行情,一揽子政策发布,加速上游产业端产能出清。 ➢ 供给方面:2025年2月以来,铜冶炼厂加工费TC/RC一直维持负值,且持续走弱,冶炼端的利润走弱也在侧面反映出了铜矿端的偏紧事实,据Mysteel数据显示,9月国内 冶炼厂计划产量为114.76万吨,10月预计产量112.35万吨 ...
工信部等八部门联合印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》开展“人工智能+有色金属”行动 建设行业大模型
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-09-28 16:08
Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments have jointly issued the "Nonferrous Metal Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of around 5% in the added value of the nonferrous metal industry and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten nonferrous metals from 2025 to 2026 [1] Summary by Sections Industry Growth Targets - The plan sets a target for the nonferrous metal industry to achieve an average annual growth of approximately 5% in added value and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten nonferrous metals [1] - It emphasizes the development of domestic resources such as copper, aluminum, and lithium, with a goal of exceeding 20 million tons in recycled metal production [1] Key Initiatives - **Resource Efficiency**: The plan promotes efficient resource utilization, including a new round of mineral exploration and support for green and efficient mining technologies [2] - **Technological Innovation**: It aims to enhance supply capabilities through technological advancements in high-purity metals and new materials [2] - **Investment Expansion**: The plan encourages effective investment to facilitate industry transformation, including the construction of key projects in aluminum and copper refining [2] Market Demand and International Cooperation - **Consumer Demand**: The plan seeks to stimulate market consumption by promoting high-end applications of metals and developing new market scenarios [3] - **International Development**: It emphasizes the importance of international cooperation, guiding enterprises to navigate foreign trade restrictions and supporting the import of primary products [3] Implementation Measures - **Organizational Support**: The plan calls for local governments to refine growth targets and policies, leveraging the role of key enterprises and industry associations [4] - **Policy Support**: It suggests utilizing existing funding channels and tax reduction policies to support the industry [4] - **Monitoring and Analysis**: The plan highlights the use of big data and AI for monitoring industry performance and market conditions [4]
研报掘金丨西部证券:首予铜陵有色“买入”评级,目标价6.14元
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-28 06:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while the market perceives Tongling Nonferrous Metals as a strong beta stock closely tied to copper price fluctuations, the company has significant growth potential due to its resource side and production capabilities [1] - The company is expected to enhance its copper resource self-sufficiency with the commissioning of the second phase of the Mirador project [1] - On the processing side, the company has established five major copper processing bases, enabling it to produce a variety of copper products and target high-end markets, thus moving towards a high-end product structure [1] Group 2 - The company is given a target price of 6.14 yuan per share based on a 15 times PE ratio for the year 2026 [1] - The initial coverage of the company includes a "buy" rating, indicating positive expectations for its future performance [1]
沪铜市场周报:原料紧张消费提振,沪铜或将有所支撑-20250926
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 09:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is supported by tight raw materials and boosted consumption. The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight supply growth and demand boost, with positive industry expectations and gradual inventory reduction. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated strongly, with a weekly increase of 3.2% and an amplitude of 4.09%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 82,470 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Incident**: Mining giant Freeport reported that its Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide accident, causing casualties and damage to mining facilities, and the mine suspended operations [6]. - **Domestic Meeting**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association held a meeting, firmly opposing the "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry [6]. - **Fundamentals - Ore End**: The TC fee continued to operate in the negative range, the supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the port inventory of copper concentrates might decline due to the decrease in raw material imports. The cost - support logic for copper prices remained [6]. - **Supply**: In the peak consumption season and with relatively firm copper prices, smelters were still enthusiastic about production. However, due to the tight supply of raw materials limiting production capacity, domestic copper production would maintain a slight growth trend [6]. - **Demand**: The central government would implement a more active consumption - expansion policy, and with the help of the traditional peak consumption season, the expectations of the copper industry were repaired, and the starting situation of downstream copper products would significantly improve [6]. - **Inventory**: With positive consumption expectations and the development of industries such as power and new energy in the application end, the demand for refined copper might significantly increase, and the previously slightly accumulated social inventory might gradually decrease [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of September 26, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract was 82,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,560 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 229,050 lots, a week - on - week increase of 112,498 lots [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 82,485 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,475 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of September 26, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [17]. - **Bill of Lading Premium**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0 US dollars/ton [23]. - **Net Position of Top 20**: As of the latest data, the net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was - 16,618 lots, a decrease of 325 lots compared with last week [23]. 3.3 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: As of September 26, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai copper main contract fell to around the 75th percentile of historical volatility [28]. - **Put - Call Ratio**: As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.6986, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0510 [28]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Copper Concentrate Price**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 72,860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,340 yuan/ton [31]. - **Crude Copper Processing Fee**: As of the latest data this week, the southern crude copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [29]. - **Copper Ore Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7593 million tons, an increase of 199,200 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 7.78%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 7.27% [34]. - **Scrap - Refined Copper Price Difference**: As of the latest data this week, the scrap - refined copper price difference (including tax) was 2,764.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,063.8 yuan/ton [34]. - **Global Copper Ore Production**: As of July 2025, the monthly global production of copper concentrates was 2,012 thousand tons, an increase of 90 thousand tons compared with June, a growth rate of 4.68%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.5%, an increase of 0.9% compared with June [39]. - **Port Inventory**: As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 478,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,000 tons [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 2.44%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 16.06%. As of July 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,498 thousand tons, an increase of 77 thousand tons compared with June, a growth rate of 3.18%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 82.8%, a decrease of 0.4% compared with June [41]. - **Refined Copper Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 307,228.226 tons, a decrease of 27,328.7 tons compared with July, a decline of 8.17%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 11.09%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was - 407.95 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.86 yuan/ton [49][50]. - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory decreased by 3,225 tons compared with last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 4,282 tons compared with last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 5,281 tons compared with last week. The total social inventory was 145,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,800 tons [53]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products Production and Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2219 million tons, an increase of 52,600 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 2.42%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with July, a decline of 10.42%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 2.38% [59]. - **Power Grid Investment and Appliance Production**: As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.5% and 14% respectively. The year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 1.6%, 12.3%, 2.5%, - 0.5%, and - 3.2% respectively [63]. - **Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of August 2025, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 6.030919 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 342,912,327,000 pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% and a month - on - month increase of 16.42% [70]. 3.7 Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of July 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 57 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of June 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 46,500 tons [75][76].
沪铜产业日报-20250925
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 09:26
沪铜产业日报 2025/9/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 82,710.00 | +2750.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,367.50 | +31.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 20.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 238,523.00 | +66079.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -16,618.00 | -3174.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 144,975.00 | -400.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 105,814.00 | +11760.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 11,775.00 | -100.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 27,419.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 82, ...