AI创业的黄金时代，也是尸横遍野的修罗场，别让你的梦想死于现金流断裂。 风口之下，99%的AI创业者，都倒在了没算清这本"账"上。 一、什么是"估值生意"？ "估值生意"的本质，说白了就是一场关于"未来梦想"的大型拍卖会。 创业者站在台上，激情描绘着一个技术颠覆世界、用户蜂拥而至、最终垄断市场的宏伟蓝图。投资者们 则竞相出价，赌的就是这个描绘中的未来能成真，而且能成得特别大、特别快。 支撑这个梦想的核心逻辑，在于追求那种"赢家通吃"的网络效应——用户越多产品越好用，产品越好用 用户就越多，最终形成难以撼动的垄断地位；或者押注于某种革命性的技术突破，一举改变行业规则。 但这场美梦有个残酷的前提：它需要源源不断的巨额资金来喂养。 在AI这个领域，这场"估值游戏"的门槛高得吓人，训练强大的AI模型就像养一只吞金兽，算力（那些贵 得要命的显卡和服务器）、海量的数据、以及顶尖人才的薪水，每一项都是天文数字。 而且，AI不是一锤子买卖，模型需要像手机系统一样不断升级迭代，这又是个无底洞。 尤其在像ChatGPT那种"基础大模型"的层面，规则更残酷，只有最顶尖的少数玩家能活下来并通吃大部 分利益，其他人连汤都喝不上热乎的。 ...

公开资料显示，2023年9月，在博时基金效力逾13年的陈凯杨悄然离任，随后加盟中欧基金担任固定收 益投资总监。 更值得关注的是其入股操作。天眼查数据显示，陈凯杨入职中欧基金，通过认缴90万元认购3.5103%的 上海睦亿投资管理合伙企业（有限合伙）股份，该公司又持有中欧基金8.5462%的股份。这意味着陈凯 杨间接持有中欧基金股权，将收入来源从薪酬转向了股权分红。 数据来源：天眼查 | 对外投资 ● ■ 品股权结构图 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 对外投资1 对外投资(间接) 223 ① | W | | | | | | | 序号 | | 被投资企业名称 | 状态 | 成立日期÷ | 持股比例 : | 认缴出资额÷ | | C-123 | 中欧基金管理有限公司 富 股权转让 | | 存提 | 2006-07-19 | 8.5462% | 1880.1636万元人 民币 | 数据来源：天眼查 这一动作的背景耐人寻味。据悉，在2024年，基金、券商限薪已经开始，上限300万元，博时、招商证 券等机构已率先执行。而中欧基金作为业 ...

成都凭借成渝经济发展圈的强大虹吸效应，流动人口规模庞大，租赁市场蓬勃活跃，已然成为全国租赁核心城市之一。政策持续约束规范行业监管、减轻 租房人群租房压力，重点聚焦保障房多元筹集政策；集中式公寓率先在二线城市形成市场+保障格局，供应与产业聚集高度匹配，租赁市场活跃；全国 TOP30品牌加速入驻，吸客力度强；超15家地方国企创立品牌入局，开业规模超3万套，中西部参与度最高。 为全面、深入地剖析成都长租市场的当下发展状况以及未来走向，克而瑞长租紧密追踪并洞察市场动态，围绕政策导向、市场表现、企业格局等核心维 度，发布《2025年上半年成都租赁市场研究报告》。以下为报告全文： 2020年及以前，是城市租赁住房政策探索期，旨在围绕市场化房源规范租赁市场发展； 2020年至今共出台租赁相关政策超30条，其中2022年出台频次高，内容围绕相关指导性输出，且聚焦保租房筹集方式、租金定价、行业监管等； 目前处于政策聚焦期，围绕保障房展开，包括保租房提取公积金住房等，此外，成都保障性住房申请审核和配售规则已发布，相关细则逐步明确。 整体趋势：监管和配套支持政策在前引导住房选择租赁化，现以引导供应端多主体/需求端政策持续 保租房筹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the National Medical Insurance Drug List for 2025 marks a significant shift towards supporting innovative drugs, particularly through the introduction of a commercial insurance innovation drug directory, which opens new payment pathways for high-value innovative drugs [1][5][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has published a series of documents outlining the adjustment plan for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance, and Work Injury Insurance Drug List, as well as the Commercial Health Insurance Innovation Drug Directory [1][3]. - The new commercial insurance directory focuses on high-innovation, clinically valuable drugs that significantly benefit patients but cannot be included in the basic directory due to their high costs [1][5]. - The adjustment process includes an online application system, with a submission period from July 11 to July 20, and a review phase from August to September, differing from previous years by eliminating the need for paper submissions [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The introduction of the dual-track application system for both basic medical insurance and commercial insurance is expected to enhance the efficiency of market access for innovative drugs [6][7]. - The proportion of new drugs listed in the insurance directory has increased significantly, from 32% in 2019 to 98% in 2024, reflecting the impact of the new policies [2][3]. - The commercial insurance directory aims to address the challenges of high-priced innovative drugs, providing a crucial market-based payment channel outside of the basic medical insurance [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The dynamic adjustment mechanism for the drug directory is expected to be updated annually, with a focus on meeting unmet medical needs for new drugs [7][8]. - The emphasis on differentiated pricing strategies and flexible renewal conditions is anticipated to improve the market access for innovative drugs [7][8]. - The dual-track system is seen as a key strategy for deepening healthcare reform and supporting high-quality development in the pharmaceutical industry [5][6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market is stabilizing due to factors such as the rebound of the Hang Seng Index and the influx of talent and capital, although 2024 is expected to see an increase in transaction volume but a decrease in prices, with second-hand transactions accounting for 80% of the market, indicating a mature market [1][9] - The dual-track system in Hong Kong's housing market is characterized by limited residential land supply, which constitutes only 7% of total land, leading to high property prices and rents, while the average living space is only 16 square meters and home ownership is low at 50.4% [1][6][7] - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the U.S. is likely to positively impact the Hong Kong real estate market, potentially lowering mortgage rates and stimulating demand for owner-occupied housing [1][12] Company Insights: Hong Kong Property Companies - Hong Kong property companies generally adopt a mixed rental and sales model, with rental income being a significant portion of their revenue. This model enhances risk resilience and supports development activities, characterized by low leverage, low turnover, and high profitability [1][4][26] - Hong Kong property companies have a competitive edge in commercial real estate, particularly in high-end projects and luxury brand leasing, benefiting from strong brand recognition and operational capabilities [1][22][24] Investment Opportunities: Hong Kong REITs Market - The Hong Kong REITs market is mature, with local properties as underlying assets and the ability to invest overseas. The largest REIT, Link REIT, demonstrates strong asset management capabilities through active management and asset adjustments [2][27][28] - The average market capitalization of Hong Kong REITs is approximately HKD 7 billion, significantly larger than that of mainland REITs, which average around RMB 3 billion [27] Market Dynamics: Supply and Demand - The supply-demand relationship in the Hong Kong real estate market is imbalanced, with limited housing supply but no severe deterioration in conditions, maintaining significant investment value [3] - The residential land shortage is a critical factor leading to insufficient supply, with new supply units averaging only 20,000 to 30,000 annually, closely tied to post-pandemic economic conditions [8] Regulatory Environment and Taxation - The taxation framework in Hong Kong includes land rent and property tax, contributing about 10% to fiscal revenue. The unique housing situation, where half the population rents, results in substantial tax income [16] - Recent adjustments in transaction taxes have lowered buyer costs, leading to increased transaction volumes despite ongoing price declines [19] Population and Economic Factors - The introduction of talent attraction policies has led to a noticeable increase in population, supporting the real estate market despite a negative natural growth rate [20] - The relationship between the Hang Seng Index and property prices indicates that price movements typically lag behind index changes by 1 to 2 months, suggesting a correlation between market performance and investor sentiment [11] Comparative Analysis: Hong Kong vs. Mainland China - Hong Kong property companies differ from mainland counterparts by focusing more on rental income and mixed-use developments, while mainland firms primarily rely on property development [21] - The potential impact of new residential projects in the Northern Metropolis and Lantau Island on the Shenzhen and Hong Kong markets is expected to be limited due to distance [15] Conclusion - The Hong Kong real estate market is characterized by a unique dual-track system, a mature REITs market, and a distinct operational model among local property companies. The interplay of supply constraints, regulatory changes, and population dynamics will continue to shape investment opportunities and market performance in the coming years [1][5][20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of basic research in driving scientific and technological progress, while highlighting the challenges faced by young researchers in this field [1] - Young researchers should focus on finding intersections between academic hotspots and practical issues, particularly in fields like artificial intelligence and healthcare [2] - The strategy of "cold spots within hot topics" can be beneficial, allowing researchers to explore under-explored areas within popular fields [2] Group 2 - A "dual-track" research model is recommended, where researchers can pursue both short-term projects with immediate outputs and long-term core issues [3] - Breaking down long-term goals into smaller, manageable objectives can help maintain progress and yield periodic results [3] - Establishing a personal academic label in a specific niche can enhance a researcher's reputation over time, even in the absence of immediate breakthroughs [3] Group 3 - Effective cross-disciplinary collaboration requires overcoming barriers such as disciplinary silos, communication challenges, and issues related to benefit distribution [4] - Creating a "common language" among collaborators is essential for smooth communication and understanding of different disciplines [4] - Focusing on specific interdisciplinary scientific problems rather than general discussions can lead to more productive collaborations [5]

来源：中国房地产报（微信号：china-crb）记者许倩 2025年下半年楼市调控怎么走，北京作出部署。 7月1日， 北京市政府 召开常务会议，研究推进"住有所居"有关工作。会议强调，"住有所居"是"七有""五性"的重要内容，住房问题既是民生问题也是发 展问题。 要加快健全多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度，完善"保障+市场"住房供应体系，不断优化房地产政策 ，更好满足市民群众高品 质、多样化居住需要。 这是对1个月前国务院常务会议精神的贯彻落实，也是对2025年北京市政府工作报告内容的进一步强调和推进。 6月13日，国务院常务会议提出，"进一步优化现有政策，提升政策实施的系统有效性""更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，为市场释放了政策进一步加 力的积极信号。作为一线超大城市的北京，经济要挑大梁，需要储备新的政策。 根据会议精神， 北京房地产市场将步入高品质商品房与保障房"双轨制"阶段。这样一个新的定调，意味着市场的归市场，保障的归保障；市场部分可能会 放开更多的限制性措施。 首都经济贸易大学京津冀房地产研究院院长赵秀池分析称，完善"保障+市场"住房供应体系，需要精准建立住房分层供应体系，对低收入群体 ...

Core Viewpoint - BMW's Steyr plant in Austria is undergoing a complex transformation, expanding electric powertrain production while maintaining its role as a global internal combustion engine manufacturing center [2][5]. Group 1: Transformation and Strategy - The Steyr plant is positioned as a dual-engine facility for both internal combustion engines and electric drive systems, ensuring a flexible and future-oriented supply model for BMW's global vehicle lineup [7][11]. - The plant had 4,900 employees and generated sales of €4.4 billion last year, ranking among the top ten industrial companies in Austria [7]. - BMW is committed to maintaining its internal combustion engine business, producing approximately 1.2 million internal combustion engines last year while also investing in traditional engine improvements [14][24]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The current fifth-generation electric vehicle drive system has achieved a 40% reduction in energy consumption and a 30% increase in vehicle range compared to the upcoming sixth generation [20]. - The introduction of new technological components, such as inverters, is seen as a key differentiator for BMW in enhancing electric drive efficiency and performance [18][22]. Group 3: Workforce and Production Capacity - BMW aims to maintain the current workforce level of approximately 4,900 employees by 2030, with 700 dedicated to research and development [23]. - The production capacity for electric drive systems is expected to expand to 600,000 units across two production lines, with adjustments based on market demand [24]. Group 4: Future Developments - The first "New Generation" model, the iX3, is set to begin series production in the fall at BMW's new factory in Debrecen, Hungary [29]. - BMW is prepared to evaluate global expansion options if demand increases, ensuring flexibility in production strategies [32].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the market price of Feitian Moutai below 2000 yuan has raised concerns about the performance of Kweichow Moutai (600519), with its stock price down 6.24% this year to around 1400 yuan per share, underperforming the market [1][3] Price Dual-Track System and Channel Reform - The price dual-track system refers to the significant difference between the factory price and the market price of Feitian Moutai, with the factory price remaining at 969 yuan per bottle while market prices soared above 3000 yuan per bottle from 2018 to November 2023 [3] - Kweichow Moutai has initiated channel reforms since 2020, reducing the number of distributors by 346, which is a rare occurrence in the company's history [3] - In November 2023, the factory price of Feitian Moutai was raised to 1169 yuan per bottle to capture more profit [3] Direct Sales and Revenue Growth - The proportion of direct sales in Kweichow Moutai's revenue has significantly increased, with direct sales revenue rising from 72.49 billion yuan in 2019 to 749 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 43% of total revenue [4] - The company has successfully transformed its marketing strategy and increased factory prices over five years [4] Impact on Distribution and Other Products - The "allocation" business, where distributors are required to purchase other products alongside Feitian Moutai, has been significantly impacted by the price drop [5] - The market price of other products like the premium Moutai has also weakened, with prices dropping below the factory price, leading to losses for distributors [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - Despite challenges, Kweichow Moutai reported a revenue of 514 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 10.67%, and a net profit of 268 billion yuan, up 11.56% [7] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to 10.2, below 75% of the historical levels over the past decade, indicating a low valuation [7] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Market reactions to the price drop are polarized, with some investors worried about long-term performance while others view the price correction as a normalization [8] - Kweichow Moutai is conducting market research to stabilize confidence, emphasizing the need to adapt to changing consumer trends and enhance brand trust [8] - There are differing opinions on when the price of Feitian Moutai will stabilize, with some analysts predicting a rebound during traditional consumption peaks, while others foresee continued low prices due to economic pressures [9]

Core Viewpoint - Traditional automotive giants are collectively retreating from aggressive electric vehicle (EV) commitments, signaling a shift towards a more pragmatic approach in the face of market realities [1][3][14] Strategic Retreat - Audi has officially withdrawn its goal for full electrification by 2033, abandoning a clear timeline for phasing out internal combustion engines [1] - The cancellation of Audi's "odd-even naming system" in early 2025 is seen as a metaphor for the contraction of its electrification strategy [4] - The closure of Audi's Brussels factory, a historical site for EV production, highlights the challenges faced in the electric vehicle market, with Q8 e-tron sales declining significantly [4][6] Market Realities - Audi's global sales are projected to drop by 11.8% in 2024, the largest decline among major competitors, with electric vehicle sales down 8% to 164,000 units, representing only 9.81% of total sales [6] - The cancellation of EV subsidies in Germany has led to a 33% drop in Audi's domestic electric vehicle sales, reflecting broader market weaknesses in Europe [6] - The overall European EV market has seen a decline of 10.8% in July 2024 and a staggering 43.9% in August 2024, marking the lowest sales in three years [6] Dual-Track Strategy - Audi plans to introduce 10 plug-in hybrid models by 2025, allowing for a transitional approach while meeting emission regulations [8] - The SSP platform will be designed to accommodate both electric and combustion engines, providing flexibility to adjust production based on market conditions [8][10] - Other traditional automakers are also adopting a dual-track strategy, balancing electric and combustion models to mitigate risks associated with a full transition to electric vehicles [10] Technological and Economic Considerations - The transition to full electrification poses significant supply chain challenges for major manufacturers, with electric vehicle production costs being substantially higher than their combustion counterparts [7] - The reliance on software development has hindered the rollout of new electric models, as seen with Audi's Q6 e-tron delays due to issues at its software subsidiary [6][10] Market Adaptation - Audi is pursuing a more aggressive strategy in the Chinese market, collaborating with local companies to develop tailored electric vehicle offerings [11] - The shift in strategy reflects a broader industry trend where traditional automakers are reassessing their approaches to electrification, focusing on profitability and sustainability rather than solely on electric vehicle production [13][14]