Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend in September, driven by the resumption of US-China trade negotiations and expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, along with a rotation in the technology sector [1][2] - The external environment is showing marginal improvement, with increased market risk appetite supported by ongoing US-China trade talks and stable macro policies in mainland China [2][3] Group 2 - Liquidity pressure in Hong Kong has eased with the resumption of overseas interest rate cuts, leading to accelerated inflows of southbound capital, with a net inflow exceeding 1.1 trillion HKD this year, setting a new historical high [3] - The market is expected to enter a "quiet season" due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, alongside uncertainties related to the US government's short-term financing plan, which may amplify overseas disturbances [4] Group 3 - The investment strategy continues to focus on a "high elasticity" and "high dividend" approach, with adjustments based on policy catalysts [5] - In the technology growth sector, the valuation recovery logic for tech stocks is further strengthened under the interest rate cut environment, with strong demand from southbound capital for high-growth sectors like AI [5] - The biopharmaceutical sector is expected to see valuation recovery, with Chinese innovative drug companies accelerating their global expansion [5] - High dividend yielding sectors such as banks, insurance, and utilities are highlighted as stable components in investment portfolios, providing consistent dividend income amid market volatility [5]

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The stock index is expected to rise in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday is low. It is recommended to control positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - After the interest rate cut, the gold price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, but there is still room for growth in the long - term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term rate risk warning by central bank suppresses rise [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Short - term high - level oscillation, long - term upward potential [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term strong due to market sentiment [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Pressured by profit - taking after Fed rate cut, but expected to stabilize and rise with overseas easing and domestic demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Pressured by profit - taking, but limited downside in consumption season [1]. - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals but limited downside as price nears cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures price, but Sino - US relations may boost sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - dominated, may be strong, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillation, Sino - US relations may boost sentiment, pay attention to production [1]. - **Tin**: Potential low - buying opportunities in demand season [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Influenced by supply and market sentiment factors [1]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Affected by US inventory, OPEC+ production plan, and Fed rate cut [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Short - term follows crude oil, supply of raw material is sufficient [1]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Output increases, basis falls, downstream profit recovers [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthens, but new device and hedging pressure exist [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory devices return, delivery willingness weakens [1]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Supply increases, import pressure rises [1]. - **Urea**: Limited upside due to weak demand, supported by cost [1]. - **PE**: Price oscillates weakly due to demand and maintenance [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillates weakly with supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: Upward momentum is suppressed by OPEC production and inventory [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May break through oscillation range due to supply disruption [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Long - term bullish with de - stocking expectation, pay attention to Sino - US talks [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recommend 11 - 1 calendar spread strategy [1]. - **Cotton**: New crop is expected to be abundant, short - term supply may be tight [1]. - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [1]. - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate at the bottom, focus on new - crop price [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Buy on dips, pay attention to Sino - US policy [1]. Others - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates, focus on warehouse receipt cancellation after September delivery [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillates with stable spot price and falling foreign quotes [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak due to supply increase and limited downstream demand [1]. - **Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe)**: Freight rates are falling faster than expected [1].

Group 1 - The bond market risks have not been resolved, and there is still room for adjustment within the year, with an upper limit potentially exceeding 1.8% [1] - Market expectations regarding monetary policy provide some support at key levels, but these expectations can eventually lead to either a positive or negative outcome [1] - The trend of "strong stocks and weak bonds" remains unchanged despite overseas interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The equity market is currently in a phase of risk appetite increase, and overseas interest rate cuts may provide emotional support [1] - Institutional reallocation between equity and bond assets continues, making it easier for bond rates to rise but harder for them to fall [1] - Recent rebounds in domestic commodities driven by policy expectation speculation may face a phase of correction [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, leading to short - term profit - taking in the index. The technology sector still dominates the market, but with the holiday approaching, it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may have a high of 1.8% without incremental negative news, and the short - term downward movement is limited. The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level shock consolidation, and silver fluctuates in the 41 - 42.5 - dollar range [2]. - The EC (European line) of the container shipping index continues to decline, and the steel price drops with the convergence of the coil - rebar spread [2]. - The iron ore price is supported by the recovery of shipments, the increase in hot metal, and restocking demand. The coal and coke futures have a rebound expectation [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disturbances and interest rate cuts [2]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors like supply - demand expectations, new device production, and检修 (maintenance) [2]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply prospects, inventory, and market demand [2]. - The prices of special and new - energy products are affected by factors such as production reduction expectations and macro - emotions [2] Group 3: Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The overseas interest rate cut led to a rise and then a fall in A - shares. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The capital situation remains tight, and the bond futures have a slight correction. It is recommended to operate within the range and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought at a low price below 3600 dollars (820 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on silver [2]. Black - **Steel**: Try short - term long positions during the correction and shrink the coil - rebar spread of the January contract. Do long - short operations between iron ore and hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Do long on the 2601 contract within the 780 - 850 range and go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Do long on the 2601 contracts of coking coal, coke, etc., within the corresponding price ranges and conduct long - short arbitrage [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The prices are affected by various factors, and different contracts have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 22500 [2]. - **Tin**: The main contract is expected to operate between 285000 - 265000 [2][3]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of strong short - term drivers, and attention should be paid to refinery start - up trends. Options can be considered after the volatility increases [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Different products have different operation suggestions based on supply - demand, production, and price trends [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oils**: The prices are affected by factors such as policies and supply - demand, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The prices are affected by factors such as supply pressure and market demand, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices are affected by factors such as supply prospects and inventory, and different products have corresponding operation suggestions [2]. Special and New - Energy - **Special Commodities**: The prices of glass, rubber, etc. are affected by factors such as production and sales and macro - drivers, and most are recommended to wait and see [2]. - **New - Energy Products**: The prices of polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by factors such as production reduction expectations and macro - emotions, and corresponding operation suggestions are given [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - High-frequency economic data focuses on three aspects: production end heat overall recovery, with increased operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and tires, and decreased rebar production; decline in commercial housing transaction area and inventory-to-sales ratio, decrease in land supply area, and continuous increase in residential land transaction premium rate; overall price recovery, with rising prices of crude oil, coking coal, and non-ferrous metals, and falling rebar price, while agricultural products continue the seasonal upward trend, with rising prices of pork and eggs, and falling prices of fruits and vegetables [1][31]. - Short-term key concerns include the implementation of anti-involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of overseas interest rate cuts [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization increased by 2.97 pct, blast furnace operating rate increased by 3.43 pct, and rebar production decreased by 6.75 tons [1][9]. - Petroleum asphalt: Operating rate increased by 6.8 pct [9]. - Chemical industry: PX operating rate remained flat compared to the previous week, while PTA increased by 6.87 pct [1][9]. - Automobile tires: Full-steel tire operating rate increased by 5.81 pct, and semi-steel tire operating rate increased by 5.99 pct [1][10]. Demand - Real estate: Commercial housing transaction area decreased, inventory-to-sales ratio declined, land supply area decreased, and residential land transaction premium rate continued to rise [1][13]. - Movie box office: Decreased by 492 million yuan compared to the previous week [1][13]. - Automobile: Daily average retail sales of manufacturers decreased by 52,000 vehicles, and daily average wholesale sales decreased by 109,000 vehicles [1][17]. - Shipping index: SCFI decreased by 3.21%, CCFI decreased by 2.07%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 7.43% [1][19]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price rose by 2.27% to $66.99 per barrel, and coking coal futures price increased by 0.89% to 1,137.5 yuan per ton [2][21]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.72%, +3.78%, and +3.45% respectively, while domestic rebar futures price fell by 0.61% [2][22]. - Agricultural products: Overall price continued the seasonal upward trend, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index rising by 0.32%, and the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by +0.20%, +2.85%, -1.17%, and -2.74% respectively compared to the previous week [2][24]. Logistics - Subway passenger volume: Increased in both Beijing and Shanghai [2][27]. - Flight volume: Domestic flight volume continued to decrease, while international flight volume stabilized and slightly increased [2][28]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities rebounded significantly [2][28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", indicating that the expected price fluctuations are within plus or minus one standard deviation in the next 2 - 12 weeks [7][97] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term impact of military parade production restrictions has ended, and enterprises in the industrial chain are resuming production. Hot metal is expected to return to a high level of 240,000 tons per day, supporting the demand for furnace materials. The performance of peak - season demand and domestic and foreign macro - policies will further intensify the sector's fluctuations [7] - Future market focus will revolve around "downstream inventory replenishment", "peak - season demand", and "overseas interest rate cuts", and attention should be paid to the possibility of the sector rising under the resonance of these three factors [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Due to the military parade production restrictions, hot metal production decreased significantly, but since September 4th, blast furnaces in Tangshan have resumed production intensively. It is expected that the impact on hot metal production reduction will be limited, and it is expected to return to a high level next week. The total iron ore inventory has increased slightly. If downstream inventory replenishment starts before the National Day, the fundamentals are supported, and the future price is expected to oscillate. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The low profit of electric furnaces and tight resources are expected to keep the short - term price oscillating [2] 2. Carbon Element - After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak - production season, and the short - term price is expected to remain oscillating under demand support. After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The arrival of the downstream demand peak season still supports the coking coal price [2] 3. Alloys - For manganese silicon, the prices of manganese ore and coke are weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic. In the long - term, there is still significant downward pressure on the price, and attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. For silicon iron, the current cost still provides some support, but in the long - term, as the market supply - demand relationship becomes looser, the price center will tend to decline, and attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [2] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has weak real - world demand, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline oscillatingly. Soda ash still has an oversupply situation. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly, and it is expected to run with wide - range oscillations in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [3] 5. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The fundamentals are weak, with both supply and demand decreasing and inventory accumulating rapidly. After the military parade, hot metal production may recover, and attention should be paid to the release of short - term inventory replenishment demand during the peak season, which may support the price [8] - **Iron Ore**: Supply and inventory are stable, and there is an expectation of demand recovery. The fundamentals are supported, and the future price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Scrap Steel**: The daily consumption has decreased slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate due to low electric - furnace profits and tight resources [10] - **Coke**: After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak - production season, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [11] - **Coking Coal**: After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The arrival of the downstream demand peak season still supports the price [12] - **Glass**: Real - world demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After mid - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline oscillatingly [12] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly, and it is expected to run with wide - range oscillations. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is weak, and there is significant downward pressure on the price in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [16] - **Silicon Iron**: The current cost provides some support, but in the long - term, the price center will tend to decline. Attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [17]

Group 1 - Recent adjustments in coking coal prices are influenced by weak demand and limited supply disruptions, with expectations of limited downward space due to pre-holiday stockpiling and seasonal demand [1][3] - The coking coal market has seen a rise in auction failure rates, particularly in Hebei, while other regions maintain good profitability and operational activity [1][2] - Current prices for Shanxi low-sulfur coking coal range from 1400 to 1450 RMB/ton, while Mongolian coal prices are between 950 to 980 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - Coking coal supply is expected to increase due to higher import volumes, despite some coal mines tightening production [2] - Coking profits have improved, leading to increased production activity, although environmental restrictions have a temporary impact [2][3] - The demand side shows resilience with high furnace iron output remaining above 2.4 million tons monthly, but overall demand pressure persists [2][3] Group 3 - The overall market for coking coal is under pressure with weak price performance, while coking profits are recovering, leading to a potential slowdown in purchasing by steel mills [3] - The cost support for coking coal is diminishing, and the market is facing adjustment pressures, although seasonal expectations and pre-holiday stockpiling may limit further declines [3]

Market Review - The Chinese stock market continues to lead globally, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.6% and 3.5% respectively, with the Shanghai Index surpassing 3,800 points, a ten-year high [1] - A-share trading volume has increased significantly, with margin trading balances exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan, and the proportion of financing purchases in total A-share trading surpassing 11%, the highest since February 2020, indicating an increased risk appetite in the market [1] - Growth sectors such as semiconductors, CPO, and robotics remain strong, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index soaring by 13.31% [1] - Following Powell's speech, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar [1] Market Outlook - Multiple sources of incremental capital are entering the market, signaling the beginning of a "slow bull" cycle for A-shares [1] - The current bull market has evolved since the "924" rally, with long-term funds such as insurance and pension funds continuously increasing their holdings in A-shares over the past three years [1] - Financing funds and private equity trading remain active, with foreign investment interest in A-shares also rising [1] - There are early signs of residents moving deposits, which could lead to increased capital inflow into the market through ETFs, direct stock holdings, and public funds, becoming a key driver for the "slow bull" trend [1] Key Focus Areas - Recent market attention is on overseas monetary policy, with Powell's dovish signals increasing expectations for a rate cut in September [2] - The A-share bull market has seen a 57% increase in financing balances since the "924" rally began, with the proportion of financing purchases rising from 7.5% to 11% [3] - Long-term funds, including insurance and pension funds, have been steadily increasing their holdings in A-shares, with insurance funds and pensions holding 3.57% and 1.8% of A-share market capitalization respectively as of Q1 2025 [4] - There is a trend of residents reallocating their assets from real estate to financial assets, with potential for significant capital inflow into the stock market [5] Industry and Theme Focus - Industry focus is on new technologies and growth areas such as domestic computing power, robotics, and AI applications, alongside sectors like large finance and new consumption [6] - Thematic investment interests include self-controllable technologies, military industry, low-altitude economy, and marine technology [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a 6% year-on-year increase in revenue to $1.24 billion for 1H25, while net profit decreased by 26% to $342 million, primarily due to a one-time impact from the return of two Russian aircraft in 1H24. Excluding this impact, core net profit increased by 20%, aligning with expectations [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a capital expenditure of $1.9 billion in 1H25, marking a 138% year-on-year increase, with a total of 24 aircraft delivered, an increase of 6 aircraft year-on-year and 4 aircraft quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The operating lease fleet's net book value increased by 1% year-to-date to $18.2 billion, with a total fleet size of $22.2 billion, reflecting a 2% increase from the beginning of the year [2]. - The net leasing yield for operating leases rose by 0.5% year-on-year to 7.5%, driven by the introduction of high-rent value new aircraft [2]. Group 2: Growth Prospects - The company signed its largest aircraft order in history during 1H25, increasing the order book by 132 aircraft year-on-year to 351 aircraft, with a total capital expenditure of approximately $20 billion [2]. - The company maintains a 100% utilization rate for its fleet, with an average aircraft age of 5 years and an average remaining lease term of 7.9 years, ensuring a robust and predictable rental income structure [2]. - The current market value of the operating lease fleet is at a 15% premium to its book value, amounting to approximately $2.8 billion, which supports the company's asset stability and potential performance [2]. Group 3: Financing and Cost Structure - The company's funding cost remained stable at 4.6% year-on-year, with total debt increasing by 2%, benefiting from internal cash flow and low-interest debt refinancing [3]. - A potential easing of overseas monetary policy could lead to a reduction in financing costs, with a projected increase in net profit of approximately $2.5 million for every 10 basis points decrease in financing costs [3]. Group 4: Valuation and Outlook - The company maintains its earnings forecast, currently trading at 1.0x and 0.9x P/B for 25e and 26e, respectively, with a target price of HKD 81.40, indicating a 13% upside potential [3].