Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has introduced ten anti-involution policies to stabilize growth in various industries, continuing the supply-side reform initiated in 2016, but with a different economic backdrop characterized by weak PPI and sluggish demand [1][2] - The anti-involution policies aim to address overcapacity and low-price competition, with a focus on optimizing production capacity and regulating local investment behaviors [3][2] - The historical context of the rebar steel industry during the 2016 reforms is referenced, indicating that specific measures can lead to price increases, as seen when the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued supportive policies for the steel and coal industries [5][6] Group 2 - The current economic environment shows that the core issue has shifted from supply-demand mismatch to insufficient demand, making the challenges of the anti-involution policies more significant than in 2016 [7][8] - Demand-side indicators such as M1 growth and large infrastructure projects, like the 1.2 trillion yuan Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station, are crucial for predicting future demand for rebar steel [8][9] - The uncertainty in U.S.-China relations, particularly regarding tariffs and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, could impact global liquidity and, consequently, the steel market [10] Group 3 - Recommended sectors for investment include coal, ordinary steel, cement, glass, and liquor, as these industries are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policies due to higher state-owned enterprise representation [11] - In the steel sector, companies with regional advantages, high dividend potential, and those in high-end special steel are suggested for investment, while smaller, less competitive firms may face greater pressure [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On Monday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher collectively. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.56%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.18%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.04% [1] Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan [1] - In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined on Monday. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.46% (previous 1.52%), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.58% (previous 1.65%) [1] - In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined on Monday. The 2 - year yield fell 2.00 BP to 1.42%, the 5 - year fell 2.00 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year fell 1.78 BP to 1.71%, and the 30 - year fell 2.00 BP to 1.95% [1] - On July 28th local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [1] - Europe and the United States reached a trade agreement, agreeing to accept a 15% tariff on most US exports to the EU [1] Market Logic - On July 18th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies would be introduced, boosting the risk appetite of the financial market. Last week, the Wind All - A stock index rose continuously, as did the prices of commodity futures mainly for domestic demand, while treasury bond futures fell continuously [1] - Since July, the decline rate of the national new - home sales area has accelerated, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly in the first half of July, with a faster decline on the US - West route. The economic fundamentals still face challenges in terms of demand [1] - The implementation of anti - involution policies may be relatively mild, optimizing supply and increasing some prices, but the short - term reaction in the commodity futures market was too intense. On Monday, commodity futures led by coking coal fell sharply after a continuous sharp rise last week, the market risk appetite declined relatively, and treasury bond futures prices rebounded significantly [1] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th, and the results are worthy of attention. There is also an important Politburo meeting this week [1]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the weekly market trends of treasury bond futures, including price movements, yield curve changes, and influencing factors, and provides market logic and trading strategies [26] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - After the short - term sharp decline this week, treasury bond futures prices may stabilize. The anti - involution policy implementation may be relatively mild, and the short - term rapid rise in the commodity futures market may end. The stock - bond seesaw may reappear, and the results of the upcoming economic talks and the Politburo meeting are worth attention. The trading strategy is for trading - type investments to conduct band operations [26] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures fell continuously with significant retracements. The 30 - year treasury bond dropped 2.14%, the 10 - year dropped 0.58%, the 5 - year dropped 0.41%, and the 2 - year dropped 0.12% [4] 3.2 Changes in Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve - As of July 25, compared with July 18, the treasury bond spot yield curve shifted upward overall. The 2 - year yield rose from 1.38% to 1.44%, the 5 - year from 1.53% to 1.60%, the 10 - year from 1.67% to 1.73%, and the 30 - year from 1.89% to 1.97% [6] 3.3 Market Risk Preference and Related Influencing Factors - This week, market risk preference increased, showing an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect [9] - Since July, the decline rate of the national new - home sales area has accelerated. From January to March, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 236,000 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In April, it was 230,000 square meters, a 12% year - on - year decrease. In May, it was 260,000 square meters, a 3% decrease. In June, it was 310,000 square meters, an 8.4% decrease. From July 1 to 25, it was 200,000 square meters, a 20% decrease [12] - In the first half of July, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly, with a faster decline in the US - West route. The CCFI US - West route index reached a recent high of 1256.91 on June 20 and then declined. The CCFI composite index reached a recent high of 1369.34 on June 27 and fell to 1261.35 on July 25 [15] - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies would be introduced, driving up the prices of domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodities and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index [18] 3.4 Commodity Market Conditions - On Friday night, the prices of coking coal and coke dropped significantly. After five consecutive days of rapid price increases in the first five days of this week, coking coal prices dropped sharply on Friday night after the exchange issued a risk warning, indicating that the short - term rapid rise may end [21] 3.5 Capital Interest Rate Situation - This week, the fluctuation of capital interest rates increased. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.44% this week, compared with 1.47% last week. DR001 rose from a weighted average of over 1.3% in the first three days to 1.65% and 1.52% on Thursday and Friday. The weighted average of DR007 was 1.54% this week, compared with 1.53% last week. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65% this week, compared with 1.63% last week [24] 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategies - Market Logic: The announcement of anti - involution policies increased market risk preference, causing stocks and commodity futures to rise and treasury bond futures to fall. The economic fundamentals still face challenges in terms of demand. The short - term rapid rise in the commodity futures market may end, and treasury bond futures prices may stabilize after a sharp decline. The stock - bond seesaw may reappear, and the results of the economic talks and the Politburo meeting are worth attention [26] - Trading Strategy: Band operations for trading - type investments [26]