1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber will follow crude oil and remain in a high - level oscillation. In the medium term, due to the high supply and the supply growth rate exceeding the demand growth rate, there is still significant fundamental pressure. The current main contradiction in the market may be the geopolitical conflict from a macro perspective [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情研判 - **Futures - end static valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to oscillate. The upper valuation of the futures price is around 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton, and when the main BR2507 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong, there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. The theoretical bottom valuation range is 11,400 yuan/ton [4]. - **Butadiene fundamentals**: The price of Asian butadiene remains stable, and the domestic butadiene market has seen improved short - term transactions, with prices oscillating around 9,500 yuan/ton. The industry's operating rate is still high year - on - year and has increased month - on - month. Short - term imports are neutral. Demand from butadiene rubber remains neutral, and there is also rigid demand from styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS. Inventories of production enterprises and ports have increased slightly. Overall, butadiene is expected to oscillate with support [4]. - **Butadiene rubber fundamentals**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber has gradually returned above the break - even line, and the supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year and increase month - on - month. The apparent demand this week remains high, but the substitution demand is expected to decline. Inventories have been at a high level year - on - year. The current fundamentals have a weak driving force, and spot prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Butadiene rubber futures**: In the short term, the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up international energy prices, and synthetic rubber, as a crude oil chemical product, may oscillate at a high level following oil products. In the medium term, the fundamentals are under pressure. Overall, the market is mainly affected by the geopolitical conflict, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and face pressure after returning to fundamentals in the medium term [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral positions are short - term bullish; the spread between NR - BR is expected to narrow [4] 3.2丁二烯基本面 - **Pricing stage**: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage and has a low correlation with the raw material end [7]. - **Capacity expansion**: To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene rubber, and butadiene rubber, butadiene capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [9]. - **New capacity in 2024 and 2025**: In 2024, a total of 380,000 tons of new capacity were put into operation, and in 2025, 860,000 tons are expected to be added, mainly through the C4 extraction process [11]. - **Supply - side operating rate**: The overall operating rate of butadiene is high, with some fluctuations due to enterprise maintenance. The total weekly production capacity is 1.4167 million tons, and the operating rate is 69.95%, with a weekly output of 991,000 tons [15]. - **Net imports**: Short - term imports are neutral, with data showing monthly import and export volume changes [16]. - **Demand - side capacity**: The capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expanding, with new projects being put into operation in multiple regions. For example, in 2024 - 2026, new capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will be added in Zhejiang, Shandong, and other places [19]. - **Demand - side operating and maintenance**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber vary among enterprises, with some in normal operation, some under reduced load, and some under maintenance [24]. - **ABS and SBS capacity**: The capacity of ABS and SBS has also been increasing. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. For SBS, the capacity increased by 160,000 tons in 2024 and is expected to increase by 250,000 tons in 2025 [28]. - **ABS and SBS fundamentals**: The operating rate, net profit, inventory, and capacity utilization of ABS and SBS show certain trends and fluctuations [29][30]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of butadiene production enterprises and ports have increased slightly, and the total inventory shows an upward trend [32][33][34] 3.3合成橡胶基本面 - **Butadiene rubber supply - production**: The weekly production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows certain trends and fluctuations, and the operating rate of enterprises also varies [39]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - cost and profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [41][42][43]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - import and export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber show certain trends [44][47]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - inventory**: The inventories of butadiene rubber enterprises, traders, and futures are at a relatively high level year - on - year [50][51]. - **Butadiene rubber demand - tires**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province and the operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires show certain trends [54][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "moderately bullish" outlook [3] Core View of the Report - In the short term, due to the continuous escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, international energy prices are rising, and synthetic rubber, as a crude oil chemical product, may follow the strong performance of oil products. In the medium term, the supply of the synthetic rubber industry chain remains high, and the supply growth rate is greater than the demand growth rate, so the fundamental pressure is still relatively large. Overall, the current main contradiction in the market may be the geopolitical conflict from a macro perspective. It is expected to be strong in the short term and face pressure after returning to the fundamentals in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the latest developments in the Middle East situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of butadiene rubber (07 contract) was 11,390 yuan/ton, up 355 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 206,269 lots, an increase of 84,393 lots; the open interest was 19,801 lots, a decrease of 1,302 lots; the trading volume was 1.167102 billion yuan, an increase of 483.72 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - the main futures contract was 310 yuan, a decrease of 255 yuan; the monthly spread of BR06 - BR07 was -70 yuan, a decrease of 250 yuan; the prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) increased by 120 yuan, 100 yuan, and 100 yuan respectively [1] - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (deliverable product) was 11,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) and (model 1712) were 11,850 yuan/ton and 10,800 yuan/ton respectively, with the former increasing by 50 yuan and the latter remaining unchanged; the mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 300 yuan and 150 yuan respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate of butadiene rubber was 66.0739%, unchanged; the theoretical full - cost of butadiene rubber was 12,079 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of butadiene rubber was -279 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Industry News - The latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports is about 21,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with the previous period. Although some ship cargoes arrived at the port during the week but were not counted into the tank, the port inventory showed a downward trend, and attention should be paid to the circulation of the arriving goods [2] - As of June 11, 2025 (week 24), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% compared with the previous period. During this period, many domestic butadiene rubber production enterprises were under maintenance or shut down. Some traders placed orders for replenishment, but the lack of actual benefits led to difficulties in shipment. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased [2][3]