（来源：票风笔记） 在春节后首个工作日票据利率走平之后，票据利率已连续两个工作日大幅上行，2026年2月26日，票据利率继续全线攀升，6个月期限国股银票转贴现利率 单日上行9BP至1.33%，创年内新高，而且年内首次来到国债利率上方。 一、日内行情（2-26） | qeubee | | | | 票据双国股报价参考 | | 2026/02/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期限 | 到期日 | 全天价格区间 | 11 | 较昨日 (bp) | 昨日收盘价 | 今日收盘价 | | 托收 | 26年02月 | 1.18 - 1.18 | - | 0 | 1.18 | 1.18 | | 1M | 26年03月 | 1.05 - 1.50 | | 50 | 1.00 | 1.50 | | 2M | 26年04月 | 1.25 - 1.50 | 9 | 25 | 1.25 | 1.50 | | 3M | 26年05月 | 1.25 - 1.50 | 9 | 25 | 1.25 | 1.50 | | 4M | 26年06月 | 1.15 - 1.43 | ...

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 23 日 1Y 同业存单利率有望小幅下行 ——商业银行同业存单及负债梳理 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2025 年下半年以来，同业存单余额下降较明显。截至 2026 年 1 月末，同业存单余 额 19.03 万亿元，较 2025 年 5 月末下降了 2.77 万亿。具体来看，截至 2026 年 1 月末，国有大行同业存单余额 6.34 万亿，较 25H1 下降了 1.36 万亿；股份行同业存 单余额 5.59 万亿，较 25H1 下降 0.6 万亿；城商行同业存单余额 5.81 万亿，较 25H1 下降 0.13 万亿；农商行同业存单余额 1.14 万亿，较 25H1 变动较小。从发行期限结 构来看，2025 年初以来 1Y 的规模占比有所下降，从 2024 年末的 63.2%降至 2026 年 1 月末的 50.2%。 2025 年下半年以来大行同业存单余额明显下降，或与央行加大流 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Continue to hold and pay attention to short - end performance [1]. 3. Summary by Content Market Performance - Treasury bond futures rose in early trading, were affected by news in the afternoon, and closed higher. Structurally, long - end performed strongly during the day, with TS and TF main contracts flat and others rising. The central bank had a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities in the open market [1]. News - The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on further ensuring and improving people's livelihood and addressing urgent concerns of the public [2]. Market Analysis - The capital interest rate dropped further. The central bank's net injection in the open - market in the morning led to a decline in the capital interest rate, and the overnight inter - bank anonymous rate fell below 1.4% to 1.35%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) rate declined, indicating improved liquidity. Currently, the bond market sentiment is good, but the relatively weak performance of short - term bonds does not match the market trend and NCD performance. If this structure continues, the upside potential of long - end bonds will be limited [3]. - There was a new round of China - US economic and trade negotiations in the UK this week. In the afternoon, false news of a China - US agreement caused a temporary drop in treasury bond futures prices. In the short - term, the biggest variable in the China - US negotiations may be a certain reduction of the 20% fentanyl tariff, but complete removal is unlikely. If the trade negotiation is favorable this week, it may be a case of "bad news being fully priced in" for the bond market [3]. Data | Contract | 2025 - 06 - 06 | 2025 - 06 - 05 | Today's Change | Last Week's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.448 | 102.434 | 0.014 | 102.35 | | TF2509 | 106.125 | 106.06 | 0.065 | 105.875 | | T2509 | 108.9 | 108.735 | 0.165 | 108.5 | | TL2509 | 119.72 | 119.36 | 0.36 | 118.75 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0733 | - 0.0721 | - 0.0012 | - 0.0794 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0287 | - 0.0084 | - 0.0203 | - 0.0397 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.2587 | - 0.0138 | 0.2725 | 0.3512 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.5255 | 0.6076 | - 0.0821 | 0.3512 | | DR001 | 1.4124 | 1.412 | 0.0004 | 0 | | DR007 | 1.5323 | 1.5509 | - 0.0186 | - 0.1007 | | DR014 | 1.5833 | 1.5892 | - 0.0059 | - 0.1352 | [3][4] Charts - The report includes charts on net basis and basis of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts, long - end interest rate trends, treasury bond spreads (7Y - 2Y), US treasury bond trends, US - China spreads, exchange - traded fund prices, DR and policy anchors, and inter - bank capital transactions [5][10][12][15][16].